Overthinking Injuries: Reece James
Should you be rushing out to buy Malo Gusto as a Reece-replacement?
Some posts hurt more than others. Andrew insisted on us publishing a Mason Mount at United piece and that hurt a bit. This one is worse than that. It was reported this afternoon that Reece James is back in a treatment room, with a potential hamstring injury. We accept some of the blame, after jinxing him in this week’s roundup article:
It’s no secret that we love Reece James (8 points). This blog is basically a Reece James fan site. That’s not changing. Reece is wonderful, and barring injury will still be a good/great fantasy option this year. His early deliveries into the box look well matched with Nicolas Jackson’s (4.5 points) movement.
Anyway. Deja vu. Again. It’s really not looking pretty for Reece, who missed most of 2022/23 with various injury problems. His injury in October early in the season seemed to rule him out of the World Cup, but Reece pushed to make it back without surgery. He managed one full game before a recurrence. He then had a succession of smaller muscular injuries. Though we’ll never truly know, it’s hard to escape the feeling his rehabilitation was rushed and the consequences are still lingering.
His potential was draft season’s ultimate tease, but with reports he’s missing time, how aggressively should you be pursuing his potential replacement Malo Gusto?
If you looked at last season’s replacements for Reece, you’d probably steer clear. Neither Cesar Azpilicueta nor Ruben Loftus-Cheek could offer anything close to the upside, though some of that was probably because Chelsea were a basket-case. Jury’s out on whether they’re a basket-case this year. But we do have a new backup at RB/RWB, fresh from France.
In our Chelsea breakdown last season, I mentioned that Gusto was very much a “Reece James-lite” and you can see from looking at their FBRef reports (comparing to Reece’s 2021/22 season, his last full available one) where the “lite” applies.
He’s not really developed anything much of a goal threat in his game yet. He’s young and it might develop (he was an attacking player in his youth career who moved backwards), but don’t expect the same goal potential that you get from Reece James. He’s also fairly different in terms of how he gets the ball forward. Reece’s pass progression volume was outsized, getting over 7 per 90. In France Gusto tended to mix in carrying the ball himself with his passing (which was still fine at 4.6 per 90). The expected assist numbers are fairly good, though still a mark down from Reece. It’s also very unlikely that Gusto picks up any set piece responsibility, so that’s another chunk of points likely to move to Enzo Fernandez and Ben Chilwell. Chances are he does not hold the same upside in attacking play yet, so your feelings on him will rest pretty squarely on how you feel about Chelsea as a defensive unit.
If you were sharp enough to get Gusto on a free agency grab, or you’d stashed him already, I think you can be fairly bullish that you’ve got yourself a young fullback with a Fantrax floor from what he’s shown in France and now opportunity to develop. If you drafted Reece and cuffed him with Gusto, there’s no sugar-coating that you’ve probably had quite a step down, unless Chelsea can really turn it round defensively.
If you held Reece James and did not get Gusto on the fastest finger first contest, I don’t think you should be clamouring to offer too much to get the backup in this situation unless you’re truly short. You’ll be charged a lot to buy potential and we’re not even sure at this point how long Reece will be out. It’s brutal luck, but don’t risk throwing good money after bad.