The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 1

Welcome back, Premier League. We've missed you.

Draft season is well and truly behind us. All that Summer planning, all those hours drafting, only for all those team sheet surprises to pull the rug on us all. Nothing like putting City up first on the schedule to remind us all that we know nothing.

As ever, there are a few safety warnings required with Week 1. Bar injuries (and, sadly, there were a few of them) it’s usually not wise to assume Week 1 actually tells us all that much. And we certainly can’t trust exactly what we’re seeing for a few weeks. It’ll be a little while before we can truly know if the new-look Brighton midfield is really good, or if Luton are really bad, for example (though we do have our theory about that one).

The short version of that is that it’s generally never a good idea to over-react. If you took a player in the third round, chances are it was because of a season’s worth of performance last time out. If they didn’t start, or they scored poorly, don’t be in a rush to throw away the previous year of information. Of course the reverse of that is that the early weeks are vital for spotting players who may have changed role, teams who have changed style, or those that look to be breaking out.

We’re not going to do a lot of detailed number analysis in the first few weeks of the season whilst we wait for the data to settle a bit, but we will be publishing regularly to highlight things we’re keeping an eye on, trends we’ve noticed and the transactions we would look to make.

Oh and, small housekeeping note, we’re not going to cover MNF in these columns in any great detail because we want to get them out in plenty of time for waivers. Sorry United / Wolves fans, we’ll be watching and will try to call out anything relevant on Twitter!

2023/24. Here we go.

• Man City are good. That’s the kind of cutting insight you’re here for right? Don’t worry about the lineup too much, they rotated for the Super Cup. Lineups will settle. Do worry a bit about the hamstring recurrence for De Bruyne. Burnley did quite well in possession but had no answer at the back for City. We’ll learn about them elsewhere. But not in GW2, given they won’t be playing.

• Doucoure (8.5 points) is picking up where he left off to end the last season, getting forward as a 10. He is likely going to offer some attacking potential, to the extent Everton can provide any as a whole. Amadou Onana (9.5 points) is a Gordon favorite (and breakout pick around these parts) and looked lively, showing off a new side to his game with 3 Key Passes (2 Big Chances Created).

• Crystal Palace and Brighton players did very well this Gameweek. Keep in mind that we have no idea how good their opposition actually are yet. We like Odsonne Edouard (23 points) more than most but we aren’t trusting him as a starter against Arsenal or Brentford in the next two weeks just yet. Similarly, Eberechi Eze (20 points) did remarkable things, racking up 0.5 xG and 0.5 xA. Those are massive numbers that it’s not reasonable to expect every week.

• Yes, as mentioned, Brighton was playing a promoted team, so take this all with a big pinch of salt, but they looked pretty exciting going forward despite the absence of Mac Allister and Caicedo. There are likely a lot of Fantrax points out there among the attacking players here, though you’ll have to be sharp picking the starters. Around these parts we’re praying for a Ferguson (13 points and a shot off the bar in 11 minutes) and Joao Pedro (18 points) combo, pleeeeeeease.

• Alexander Isak (25 points) had a fantastic game, looks fully healthy and sharp. Aston Villa’s defence is the opposite. Moussa Diaby (18 points) impressed though. Newcastle looked very open and attacking which was a contrast from last year. Interesting to see if that is here to stay or just a product of early season. We’re a little dubious of whether Sandro Tonali (16.5) will remain as attacking (and successful in doing so as he was this weekend), but that was a strong outing for those who showed the faith.

• Were Tottenham very open, or is Mbeumo (13.5 points) very good with his movement? It’s both. The Ange experience looks like it’s going to be value for the neutral (and for James Maddison (25.5 points) drafters.

• It’s no secret that we love Reece James (8 points). This blog is basically a Reece James fan site. That’s not changing. Reece is wonderful, and barring injury will still be a good/great fantasy option this year. His early deliveries into the box look well matched with Nicolas Jackson’s (4.5 points) movement. But keep an eye on Ben Chilwell (11.5), who continued the preseason pattern of being pushed up high on the left. We wouldn’t be surprised if Chilwell ends up the more valuable Chelsea defender this season, even if Reece stays healthy.

• If you want to read much into that Liverpool performance, you’d probably say that that new look midfield can really progress a ball. Threatening chances came at a high-rate any time they could get on the ball. Only thing was that they just couldn’t get the ball off Chelsea unless Chelsea passed it to them (which happened a fair few times, admittedly). Moises Caicedo is not the only ball-winning midfielder in the World, so Liverpool need to dust themselves off and get one in as soon as possible to unlock the real potential they flash in attack.

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