The 2022/23 WAR Team of the Season
The data-backed Fantrax Premier League Draft Team of the 22/23 Season is here.
Those of you who have been with us for a long time—and those of you who are baseball fans—are likely familiar with the WAR concept or its usage. For those who are new here, we have developed a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric for Fantrax Draft Premier League to identify which players are bringing the most value to their teams. The longer explanation of how we calculate WAR can be found here. For those less interested in how the sausage is made, we calculate players’ WAR by comparing their weekly performances to those of the average waiver wire player of their position. After thousands of simulations, we are able to determine how much a player increased their fantasy team’s chances of winning in a given week, and by adding all of those weeks up, can get a complete picture of how many wins an individual player contributed to their fantasy team over the course of a season.
One of the advantages of tracking WAR data across a Premier League campaign is that around this time of year, we end up in a position to name, fairly conclusively, the optimal “above replacement” team of 2022/23.
Since positional value goes up and down year over year, the formation of the WAR team of the year may be different each season. The sole restrictions that we place on this team are that we select only 11 players and those 11 players must fit into a legal Fantrax formation. We also use players’ base positions and do not allow for multi-position eligibility. Yes, that does mean that some great players miss out on the team despite high WAR scores. They’re professional footballers who by definition are probably having a very good year in their career, so we like to think they’ll recover from the snub.
Without further ado, here is your 2022/23 WAR Team of the Season!
Goalkeeper - David Raya, Brentford
1.53 WAR, ADP: 151.54, 40% drafted
Goalkeepers are an enigma in Fantrax, and you’ll regularly hear us talk about the difficulties goalkeepers have in repeating top Fantrax performances. Last season, Jose Sa was heroic, putting up 7.5 Fpts a game (and massively outperforming his xGA) to finish as the second placed keeper (behind Alisson on 8.2 points per game). This season, David Raya is running hotter than both with 8.5 Fpts a game and earning 1.53 WAR, half a win more than the next best Goalkeeper (Alisson showing impressive consistency).
Raya was drafted late or undrafted in most leagues and was certainly selected behind the likes of De Gea, Pope, Martinez and Sa (all of whom are fine but have been a whole win behind Raya in value). Well done if you picked it before the year. I still wouldn’t draft him early next year for all the reasons described above, but he’s more than earned his spot in this year’s WAR team of the season.
Defender 1 - Kieran Trippier, Newcastle
3.88 WAR, ADP: 36.76, 99.9% drafted
Kieran Trippier was our season MVP in our recent Superlatives article and the rationale was simple. Kieran cost less than the majority of names on this list, yet returned a huge WAR score of 3.662 (3.88) over the course of the season and had 34 games played at time of writing.
He basically always plays; he basically always scores highly. In a mostly down year for Defenders, Trippier didn’t get the memo. He is currently neck-and-neck with the WAR goat KDB, and while he may not pull off the ultimate prize, he’s certainly a player I imagine features in a lot of Championship winning seasons. He is getting a little older, but he also comes with the enticing possibility that Newcastle improve the squad around him even further this Summer. His 2023/24 ADP will be interesting to watch.
Defender 2 - Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool
2.07 WAR, ADP: 5.82, 100% drafted
Ok, this one’s tough. Trent Alexander-Arnold is the 14th Overall player in WAR, worth 2.07 wins above replacement. At time of writing, he’s the 14th Overall player in Fantrax. It just should’ve been more. In reality, this is an entirely solid season from Trent, despite Liverpool being below the level they’d set in previous years.
It’s just . . . not what you are hoping for if you’re using a 5th/6th overall pick. Things have picked up in recent weeks for both Liverpool and Trent (in particular finding joy in a role where he is tucking into midfield) and his last 8 weeks have been very good. But he’s probably going to slip in drafts next season. I’m not convinced he should be slipping that far. If I was guessing, his overall points rank could be around where he slips to (mid 2nd round). At that price, he has the potential to return incredible value.
Defender 3 - Fabian Schär, Liverpool
1.62 WAR, ADP: 380.39, 4.03% drafted
Goalkeepers apart, this is probably the first surprising name on the list. That’s not to say we haven’t all at some point noticed that Newcastle were keeping a lot of Clean Sheets. On FBRef’s xGA metric, they’re the second best team in the league, squarely between Arsenal and Manchester City.
Schär’s consistency in putting up counting stats led him to third overall in the Fantrax defender rankings (at time of writing) and the same position in the defender WAR table, with 1.62 wins above replacement. He was basically free at an ADP in the 300s and managers who were able to snag him were repaid handsomely in consistency. Who knows what Newcastle will do if they do manage to clinch the Champions League this year but Schär is almost definitely going to be undervalued into drafts again next year if the spot is still his.
Midfielder 1 - Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City
3.70 WAR, ADP: 2.8, 100% drafted
This season ended up looking like a surprising title race, with Manchester City trailing Arsenal right until the last months. And it’s worth remembering that first half of the season Manchester City seemed more vulnerable than the version we are used to. And some of us were burned with the amount of draft capital invested into Joao Cancelo, or hurt with the infamous ‘Pep roulette’.
But if I have any Fantrax rule I’ve stuck to since I’ve been writing, it’s to just assume Kevin De Bruyne will perform like the best player in the game until he shows you otherwise. He’s fourth in total Fantrax points, 2nd (for now!) in WAR and 1st overall in mean xFpts (16.88/start).
It’s entirely reasonable to say that Erling Haaland might not be one you want to adjust down too much for xG overperformance. But with KDB, there’s just zero chance you’re not taking at least a top 5 player season after season if you’ve drafted him. Rinse and repeat until he shows you something different.
Midfielder 2 - Bukayo Saka, Arsenal
WAR 3.37, ADP: 13.51, 100% drafted
I’ll put my cards on the table. I bought hard on Bukayo Saka this summer. It was the perfect storm for me of an incredibly likeable guy, with solid previous year performance and he was at a pre-breakout age. Despite him playing for Arsenal, I could not be happier that he’s had the season he’s had on the pitch and that translated hugely in WAR terms, with him currently in third overall with 3.37 WAR so far this season.
He’s also been near ever-present. A true set-and-forget star. Can only imagine he will be in the top 5 overall conversation next season and given he is still so young, it is not at all impossible that he’s still got levels to move up. Exactly the type of player I like to gamble on in drafts.
Midfielder 3 - Bruno Fernandes, Manchester United
WAR 3.47, ADP: 10.03, 100% drafted
If Saka came into the season with his star on the rise, Bruno Fernandes was the opposite for a lot of managers. The arrival of one of his National Team colleagues to Manchester United threw him off more than most last season and even with the new manager signed over the Summer, his ADP of 10 (when he was in the number one overall pick conversation in previous years) reflected a lot of uncertainty about club and player.
We needn’t have worried. It wasn’t always smooth on the pitch for United, but Bruno has put up consistently good performances for most of the season in Fantrax and finished 3rd in overall WAR with 3.47 wins added. He’s also done it in fewer games than some of the other names here, second only to De Bruyne in average WAR score. Like Saka, he’s a very reasonable name to consider in the top 5 overall once again next season.
Midfielder 4 - Martin Odegaard, Arsenal
3.16 WAR, ADP: 27.21, 100% drafted
When we talked about Kieran Trippier, I touched on the idea that as you get later into the draft, being able to pick up positive WAR contributors should become harder. Yet, like Trippier, there was a top 5 WAR player that was available deep into the third round of most drafts. Martin Odegaard feels like he’s been around forever, given he was signed so young by Real Madrid.
It seems that at Arsenal things have really started to click for the (still surprisingly) young man and as he’s moving into peak age, he’s started to put up some impressive WAR scores. He’s fifth overall, with 3.16 wins added for his teams. Like Saka, he’s been available almost the entire season. Like the three midfielders before him, he’s almost sure to be in the first round of drafts next season and it’s earned.
Midfielder 5 - Solly March, Brighton
3.06 WAR, ADP: 349.12, 6.81% drafted
I can only imagine how many times Solly March must’ve had to pee in a cup this season. He played 21 GWs last season for Brighton and managed to accrue a -0.02 WAR value. Or to put that another way, if you used Solly March in every game he started last year, he made you worse than just finding the average streamer.
Not so this year. He’s been incredibly consistent as the RW for Brighton who haven’t missed a beat after shipping out Trossard. He’s played 30 times and added 0.102 WAR per game played for a total of 3.06 wins added. For reference, last season Kevin De Bruyne, Harry Kane, Raphinha, and Bruno Fernandes all scored below that mark in WAR. March did this from an undrafted value. His hamstring ruling him out of Brighton’s DGWs to end the season is a dampener, particularly for any managers in playoffs leagues, but what a year this has been for Solly. Keep an eye on what Brighton do around him, as there are a lot of coveted players in their starting lineup, but in the mid-rounds, how could you resist the chance of a repeat?
Forward 1 - Erling Haaland, Manchester City
3.05 WAR, ADP: 4.06, 100% drafted
I didn’t rank Erling Haaland as a must draft in the first round last Summer. Pep’s habit of not really trusting first year players, plus Haaland’s league adaptation made it a risk I didn’t see myself taking. What’s clear at this point is that that rationale, whilst fair, ignored that the Norwegian is an actual cyborg. He has the body size of a basketballer and can use it in ways I’m really not sure we’ve ever seen at the top level of football (especially in England).
Our models do knock Erling a bit, primarily because he over-performs his xG. If you ever choose to ignore it, this would be the time, given that on the actual pitch he’s amassed his managers a healthy 3.05 wins. Those who gambled to take him early got your faith repaid. He’ll almost definitely be 1-1 next year given the reputation he’s established.
Forward 2 - Harry Kane, Tottenham
2.96 WAR, ADP: 4.86, 100% drafted
Tottenham were something of a mess this year. Were it not for a club just across London having a more dramatic breakdown, they’d probably be a bigger story. It impacted most of the players. It didn’t stop Harry though. At 2.96 wins added (9th overall), Harry actually outperformed his 2021/22 WAR value (2.23) and is in second place in total Fantrax points.
There’s honestly not a lot more to say about it other than it’s rare that drafting Harry Kane lets you down. Who knows if he’ll still be at Tottenham next season, but even in his age 30 season, the safe money is that he’s not done being a top 10 Fantrax contributor.
So there is your official WAR team of the season. Whilst 5 of these names were first round locks, there was also clear value to be had even into Round 16. If you ended up with 4 or more of these players on your roster, you’re probably up for GM of the year in your league and can give yourself a well earned pat on the back (momentarily, before shifting focus to next year’s draft!).
We’ve got more to come over the next few weeks, including more details of our official products for the 2023/24 Fantrax season (it’s never too early to start planning, after all). If you’re not already subscribed, hit the button below and make sure you don’t miss out!