The Overthinking Football 22/23 Superlatives
It's superlatives season here and the whole team have pulled together to hand out our Fantrax 2022/23 Fantasy season awards!
The 2022/23 football season kicked off on a Friday night in South London, as Arsenal eased to a 2-0 away win over Crystal Palace.
At that point not many would’ve picked Arsenal to have still been in a title challenge in May and, as this quote from the first article of the season shows, we didn’t expect Patrick Vieira to make such an early exit either:
Crystal Palace started slowly under what was a very impressive Arsenal barrage in the first 30 minutes of the season-opener. But they grew into the game and put Arsenal under some real pressure. They had one of the most-disrupted pre-seasons possible and are still missing Michael Olise, so extra reason to cut them a little slack. Vieira was not a managerial appointment that I thought much of at the time. It seems he’s going to prove me very wrong.
The specifics seem a very long time age, so we’ll save incorrect early-season take amnesties for another time. Instead, I (Gordon) have dragged the whole Overthinking Football crew in to talk awards. Specifically Fantrax awards. It’s time to recognize those contributors who’ve really made this Fantasy season memorable.
After coming up with a bunch of categories, we did what any self-respecting Fantrax publication would do: we drafted. So each of us will be handing out three awards, before attempting to come to some agreement on this season’s Most Valuable Player (MVP).
So with no further ado… onto the awards!
Bargain of the season
Which player has delivered the most on their ADP value?
Many people reading this article probably know who this year’s bargain bin treasure is off the top of their head. It is, of course, the Brighton Breakout: Kaoru Mitoma.
Odds are whoever ended up with Mitoma in your league also got him for a song. He was only drafted in 0.8% of all Fantrax leagues and had an ADP of 1135.42, which honestly might be an error due to how few people drafted him and how few leagues draft over 1000 players.
As we all know, Mitoma has had a spectacular season, finishing with an impressive 1.732 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and an elite level of average WAR per game of 0.102. The only player who even came close to giving fantasy managers the same bang for their buck was his teammate Pervis Estupinan, who went undrafted across all Fantrax leagues and put up 1.05 WAR. However, Estupinan’s average WAR of 0.044 is merely good and he is nowhere close to Mitoma on the fun-to-watch-o-meter.
-Will
The ‘Pete Maverick Mitchell, age is but a number award’ for best veteran performer of the year
Which player is defying logic to perform at a level well above their similarly aged peers?
A quick glance at the oldest players in the EPL (courtesy of fbref.com) practically grants this award by default to Thiago Silva.
I knew he was an older player, given his defensive dominance since as long as I earnestly followed professional football. I did not realize he was the oldest player in the Premier League however. Despite (finally) beginning to regress and Chelsea’s horrific season, he has still managed to provide decent value to his managers (7.82 xFpts; 0.467 WAR) and makes for a solid defensive starter. In a season with little joy for Chelsea, I am sure fans will take solace that at least one player is taking home an award for positive reasons.
-Chris
The ‘Ke Huy Quan award’ for comeback player of the year
Which player has bounced back from a disappointing 2022?
We included 503 players in our 2020/21 end-of-season Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rankings. Marcus Rashford ranked 492nd. And now, after 36 game weeks of the 2022/23 season, the people’s prime minister sits at 23rd in WAR.
It is not always the case that a player’s fantasy performances match up with their real-life contributions, but in this case, Marcus’s turnaround has been obvious on all fronts. After an injury-plagued 21/22 season following his tragic miss on the international stage, Marcus has cemented himself as United’s best attacker. His current tally of 16 goals and 5 assists is dramatically up from the previous season’s 4 and 2, and he has contributed to a whopping 43% of United’s Premier League’s goals this campaign. In doing so, Marcus also established himself as a top fantasy forward, upping his production from 4.85 to 11.05 xFpts/start.
Who knows if Marcus will keep up his stellar form in the coming season, but no one can deny his remarkable turnaround. After all the amazing things he has done off the field in recent years, it’s wonderful to see him bounce back on it.
-Andrew
The ‘Chuck Noland award’ for guy in biggest need of a change of scene
Who is most in need of a change of club / manager?
There are tons of players that could use a change of management or address to get their career back on the right track. So, when deciding who most needs a fresh start my main question was, “how likely is this player to bounce back once they are free of their current trials and tribulations?” In my opinion, that player is Mason Mount for three main reasons:
1. Mount has a stellar Fantrax track record before this season. In the two seasons before this year, Mount was putting up fantastic numbers. In the 20/21 season he finished sixth overall in WAR and twelfth in average xFpts, and last season he was twelfth in WAR and nineteenth in average xFpts. These are late first rounder early second rounder numbers he was putting up as a twenty-two and twenty-three years old, which suggest that if all things had remained equal, the 22/23 season would have been a good year.
2. But . . . no things have remained equal at Chelsea. There have been changes in ownership, the front office staff, the manager (twice), and the player recruitment strategy (also twice). There is also a striking correlation between Mount’s drop in performance and Chelsea turmoil. Given the historic levels of change at Chelsea, it seems pretty likely this is a factor in a nearly relegation battle level performance by the 2021 Champions League winning Mount and his teammates.
3. He could actually get out. Mount’s current contract runs out next summer, and as of right now reports are saying he and Chelsea are not on the same page. There are rumors that he could be headed to Liverpool, who could definitely use some attacking midfielder reinforcements, and have had a recent change in system that (in my opinion) could fit Mount well. From a Fantrax standpoint, there would be the downside that he likely would lose his set piece points with a move to Merseyside, but the upside is that he’d be a regular starter for the league’s 3th best attack by xG.
-Will
The ‘Macaulay Culkin award’ for breakout young player of the year
Selfishly, this was the category I most wanted to get in the draft. And not just because it’s an opportunity to namecheck Evan Ferguson again. Despite the impact Ferguson’s had on the field (and the prestige of having been a featured article here already) , he’s more of a tip for next season’s “Breakout” award.
In the pre-season, I wrote an article about Breakouts. I’m relieved to say that in that article, we talked about some solid candidates for this award, including the likes of Bryan Mbuemo, Jacob Ramsey and Harvey Elliott, each of whom has had strong seasons (don’t mention Ait-Nouri, I’m still grieving the lost season). But none of them are taking home the award. Nor are Morgan Gibbs-White (who would also have been a very reasonable answer if we were only looking at total points) or Kaoru Mitoma (who I’m arbitrarily going to say is too old). Sometimes in life the obvious answer is the right answer.
Michael Olise was a hot tip for breaking out this Summer and he’s solidly beaten his 5th / 6th round ADP value by sitting at 18 overall in Fantrax points and a remarkable 13th in total WAR this season. Part of this is no doubt driven by a 43 point explosion in Crystal Palace’s 5-1 win over Leeds. And since Roy Hodgson has returned to Palace, he’s truly elevated his game (helped by a kind fixture list).
Back in the Summer, this was the verdict:
He’s not cheap, as you’re talking Round 5 to get him. But this is an example where I’d be willing to pay it over some of the other players in this area like Matty Cash, Leandro Trossard or Callum Wilson. With each of those players, Round 5 value is probably about right and it’s very unlikely you’ll have scored yourself a bargain. With Olise you just might.
And he truly delivered. The worthy winner of the inaugural ‘Macaulay Culkin award’: Michael Olise.
-Gordon
Most improved
Who has taken the biggest leap?
I spent a lot of time (and words) showing my working out in my other categories. This one is going to take a lot less.
Not many players that have been in the league for 6 seasons take a leap quite like the man in question. Almost none of them leap from a paltry 5.5 Fpts per game (and an undrafted ADP) to almost 14 PPG and a comfortable top 10 overall finish. And if they do, the smart money would be on small sample size effects and huge xG overperformances.
Not so for Solly March who, despite being by some accounts a questionable landlord, has truly elevated his game under Roberto de Zerbi and has been a revelation for those lucky enough to roster him this year. Who knows if he can maintain it next season, but there can be no other winner of this award, even with his hamstring not holding out through the last few weeks.
-Gordon
The ‘Logan Roy, it’s over award’ for player whose time has come to an end
The player for whom father time or circumstance has taken a toll on this year
I thought about assigning this category to a selfish, aging superstar who has not stepped foot on U.S. soil in years for what can only be innocent reasons, highlighting how he burned his reputation in a comically unaware “interview” before selling his soul for money of questionable origin. But that seemed petty.
Instead, I’ll talk about a longtime favorite of our blog who, despite our faith, seems to be over the hill. As our followers know, we have always been a proponent of the forgotten defender class. And for years, Lucas Digne joined Trent Alexander-Arnold and Joao Cancelo as a defender standard-bearer, making him one of the most valuable players in the draft fantasy game.
This year, on the other hand, is a different story. Despite ending last season strong, things never really clicked for Digne on the 22/23 Villans. After a slow start to the campaign where he averaged only 6.95 xFpts, Digne lost his spot in the new year to January signing Álex Moreno. Digne has on occasion shown flashes of his dominant fantasy past, but at this point, those moments are few and far between. With a potential transfer away from England looming, managers may soon have to wave goodbye to our fantasy hero of old.
-Andrew
The real life team of the fantasy year
Which real life team has contributed the most to Fantrax this year?
The boring answer is Manchester City, who have a whopping 5 players with a WAR of 1 or higher. But there’s not really any surprise there. They’re really good and they’ve got really good players and Erling Haaland is a cyborg. So with apologies to Pep, this is a title that will continue to evade you.
So then I’m into a battle between my heart and my head.
My heart says it’s Brighton. They’ve taken things to a whole other level this year and in Solly March, Kaoru Mitoma, Pascal Gross, Alexis Mac Allister, Pervis Estupinan and Moises Caicedo they’ve provided value pretty much all-year long. In any other year, I’m not sure there’d even be a question that they should get this award. But, much as it pains me to say it, there is another team that have possibly outperformed their pre-season expectations even more.
Even if it has fizzled slightly the last few weeks, the fact that there was still a title race in May is notable. The fact that one of the two teams involved is Arsenal is remarkable. In Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard, they’ve got 3 of the top 10 in Total WAR and adding in Gabriel Jesus, they’ve got 4 of the top 20 in xFpts. Whatever is in the water in the red half of North London, they need to patent and sell it.
So the 22/23 award goes (begrudgingly) to Arsenal.
-Gordon
The ‘Kostas Tsimikas award’ for Streamer of the Year
Who is the dependable “go get em off the wire guy” of the year?
Winning the streamer-of-the-year award is a delicate tightrope. You have to be talented enough to consistently score points in bunches, but not so good that starts are frequent enough to actually make long-term rostering worthwhile. Julian Alvarez might have taken this award in a different year, but the staggering upside of an attacker on this City team, coupled with Haaland’s previous injury history, had managers (yours truly included!) rostering him for far too many weeks to qualify here.
Instead, the award goes to the ever-controversial Bobby Firmino. With an abundance of talented forwards, Liverpool rarely had to turn to it’s veteran facilitator. When they did, however, the goals flowed like it was 2017 again. Across just 12 starts, Bobby has scored 6 goals and added 3 assists. Always good for at least one absurd points outburst a year, Firmino especially delivered for managers in week 4, single-handledly winning his matchups with a 53 point stunner. Fare thee well Bobby, here’s one last award for your Liverpool trophy cabinet.
-Chris
The ‘Rip Van Winkle award’ for late riser
The player who is clearly not a morning person and took a very slow start to 22/23 only to wake up second half
Wine and cheese, coffee and cake, Dwight McNeil and Sean Dyche — some things are just significantly better together. The Dyche-led Burnley version of McNeil was a fantasy dream, pumping in crosses and dribbling past opponents at a blistering pace, rivaling even James Ward-Prowse as one of the most reliable performers the game has ever seen. Burnley’s relegation in 22/23 and McNeil’s subsequent transfer to Everton raised considerable uncertainty about his future prospects. Would he be able to replicate these results on a new team, one where he no longer serves as the offensive focal-point? Would a non-Dyche manager value him in quite the same way? The answers to both these questions, were sadly a resounding “no.” Not only were starts in short supply (10/20) but his output was lacking too, as he averaged just 6.4 xFpts/game.
Enter Dyche — the ginger Mourinho — McNeil’s savior. Immediately upon Dyche’s entrance into Everton’s relegation battle, Dwight has become a mainstay in the lineup, starting every possible game. And the fantasy returns have followed suit, doubling his first half production with an average of 14.7 xFpts. These are vintage McNeil performances, with all the hallmarks of his Burnley excellence. While Everton look destined for the drop, we’ve been blessed with the return of a fantasy favorite. Let’s enjoy him while we can.
-Chris
The individual Fantrax performance of the year
Which player put out the single best Fantrax performance of the year?
The winner of top performance of the season surprised me when I looked it up. It was in fact Bruno Fernandes with 0.393 WAR from 41.5 points in Week 24. You may be thinking, “wait, I could have sworn Erling Haaland and Roberto Firmino each had a game week they broke 50 Fpts and broke my fantasy team’s spirit,” and you are right, but those performances were only worth 0.294 and 0.33 WAR respectively due to some other outstanding performances that happened those weeks. In fact, Bruno’s winning performance was only the seventh highest score in Fantrax this season, but it came in a real dud of a game week where Seamus Coleman tied for the second most Fpts of the game week with 26.5. Interestingly, Bruno had pulled a similar trick for the second most WAR with 0.38 from 36.5 Fpts in Week 12. This goes to show you how valuable those couple of big performances from a star can be, even if they are not record breaking Fpts returns.
-Will
The ‘Ali Dia, what could have been award’
What player had so much potential but, due to real-life circumstances, left managers wanting more?
Though he has recently rewarded managers who stuck with him (or added him as a timely waiver pick-up), it’s Eberechi Eze. Seems a bit weird to pick someone who currently sits at 21st overall in WAR for the ‘what could have been’ award, doesn’t it? Well, consider that Eze was inexplicably benched by Patrick Viera for 8 games in the middle of the season and the selection might make more sense.
Eze got off to a great start in the season, working his way into the top 25 of the WAR rankings and establishing himself as an every-week starter in fantasy lineups. However, in the midst of Palace’s brutal 12-match stretch that saw the Eagles play exclusively top-half teams (and Chelsea, lol), Viera lost the plot, and Eze lost his spot. While Viera’s defensive approach may have seemed wise at the time, the results of this period—0 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, only 5 goals, and 3 consecutive matches without a shot on target—revealed that dropping one of Palace’s only creative threats may not have been the smartest move. Eze’s near immediate reintroduction into the lineup for 3 matches following Viera’s sacking reinforced this reality, as the 24 year-old bagged 3 goals and 1 assist, and, most importantly, Palace secured 3 wins.
Ultimately, Eze owners will be happy with his draft return this season. Finding a top 25 player with an ADP of 97th is nothing to scoff at. And yet, after Eze’s time on the field showed just how good he is in this format, I cannot help but feel that Eze should find himself closer to the WAR top 10 alongside his Palace compatriot, Michael Olise. It’s hard to predict what direction Palace go in the next campaign, but I sure hope Eze is a key part of their squad for years to come.
- Andrew
MVP
Who is the MVP?
Having decided we wanted this award to be a discussion and a vote, we thought this might result in a bit of a debate. It turned out not to be. And we don’t think it’s entirely a product of groupthink.
Although Haaland and De Bruyne are both clearly right up there (with De Bruyne having taken the season WAR lead with just 3 games remaining at time of writing) and Saka is also not far behind on just about every metric, we all agreed that the fact that Kieran Trippier was able to contribute more than 3.5 wins above replacement, from an ADP at least two rounds after the likes of Haaland, De Bruyne and Saka, was enough for him to be our justified winner of the Overthinking Football MVP of the season.
Tripps produced a league-high 17(!) 90th percentile outings, and rarely let fantasy managers down with consistent performances throughout the season. His place on a surprisingly stout Newcastle defense and always prolific role as the team’s set-piece taker took him to new heights, and will surely have him moving up next year’s preseason ranks. Step aside Cancelo and Digne, there’s a new defender in town.
-All
Thanks for reading. And as ever, let us know if you agree with our awards—and feel free to suggest and nominate your own 22/23 Fantrax superlatives.
We’ve got more to come over the next few weeks, including more details of our official products for the 23/24 Fantrax season (it’s never too early to start planning, after all) so if you’re not already subscribed, hit the button below and make sure you don’t miss out on anything!
All images via Midjourney