The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 8

In which Maguire was a late hero for Manchester United, Sterling demolished the Burnley defence, Soucek scored and Pedro Neto continued to show his class. Wait. Is it somehow 2020 again?

Welcome back to another Overthinking Roundup. We’ll take apart the week that was, go through game by game to talk about what we saw and, for those of you who subscribe, provide some recommended Transaction advice.

This was Gameweek 8 of the season. We’re already over a fifth of the way through, incredibly. And we’re about to take another pause for some International games. As we all expected, Tottenham are sitting in first place, closely followed by Arsenal and then a chasing pack of Manchester City and Liverpool. Oh and Newcastle, Manchester United and Chelsea are all sat between 8th and 11th. Yep. All entirely predictable.

And when it comes to Fantrax points, we’ve got some familiar names at the top of the Total Points table, but also top-10 appearances from Crystal Palace CBs, Wolves wingers and a surprising extra City forward.

Seemingly every week there’s plenty to digest and even though we’ve seen 8 games, we’re still in the process of figuring out who a lot of these teams are. So with no further ado…

Luton Town 0 - 1 Tottenham

For an article opener, there isn’t tonnes to say about this one. Tottenham had Luton exactly where they’d want them for 45 minutes, conceded a red card and were still able to do enough to get the goal and see out the game. Probably the most surprising element of Ange’s Spurs is that they’ve been getting high points production from the central defender position. Cristian Romero (21) has had a points average in the double figures this season. He’s running a little hot on his xFpts, but week after week he remains heavily involved in racking up ghost points. His partner Micky Van de Ven (22.25) has been less involved stats-wise so far, but got a goal from a corner and a clean sheet for his troubles today. Beyond that, it looks much the same as we usually see for Spurs, with James Maddison (16.5) the man making everything tick. The xG generation in the first half was excellent and we’re not going to read too much into what happened with 10 men. If you’re worried about Richarlison (6) dropping back from his recent form, don’t be. In 45 minutes, he had 4 shots and racked up 0.94 xG+xA. Had Yves Bissouma (-5) not been dismissed, he’d have been a good bet to have got a goal.

For Luton we were intrigued by whether Alfie Doughty’s (9) impressive Key Pass numbers would hold up against a tougher opposition. They didn’t, but he still returned enough to be a good starting option. The red card means we’ve got a bit of noise in the data here. But we’re in no rush to drop Doughty back to waiver wires in any leagues we’re in and will be keeping a close eye on the performances against Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa after the break.

Burnley 1 - 4 Chelsea

Narrative is a fickle thing. Arguably Chelsea’s worst half of the season was the first half of this game (except, perhaps, the second half against West Ham). They were perhaps unfortunate to go behind, given Wilson Odobert (18) scored with a very good finish from Burnley’s only real chance of the half. But they also just weren’t really creating anything either. That they went in at 1-1 is a credit to Raheem Sterling (32) for getting a dangerous ball across that took a kind deflection. But they’d created just 0.36 xG otherwise and had only put one shot on target. It wasn’t about any individual player, but Armando Broja (0.5) found it particularly difficult to get into the game, managing only 18 touches and a single shot in his 45 minutes on the field. We were pretty surprised he got the start, given Jackson’s performance against Brighton in the Caraboa cup (and subsequent rest through suspension) and the fact that Broja was just returning from a long injury lay off with from an ACL injury. Broja will have better days ahead. But this really highlighted that, until he shows more consistency, he is most likely just an occasional desperation stream, rather than a must start player.

The second half change to bring Nicolas Jackson (17.5) back in allowed Chelsea to get on the front foot and they pressed more aggressively in the second half. It meant winning the ball in better positions and the goals eventually started flowing, including a goal from Jackson to suggest his finishing challenges might just be variance (who would’ve thought). It was also pretty notable that Cole Palmer (19.5), who has looked really good since getting into this team for a man with so little senior experience, also took penalty duty (despite Enzo Fernandez (4.5) being on the field). Palmer was (and is) a hard projection playing time wise but if he continues to put up performances like he has in the last 3 games, he will be a difficult man to drop. The final thing we will say about Chelsea is that Conor Gallagher (13) was considered a shoe-in to leave the club in the Summer. Tottenham reportedly bid over £40m for him and were close to Chelsea’s valuation. Mauricio Pochettino must be delighted that they didn’t meet the valuation, as he’s been a key cog in making this midfield work the last few games. In the long term, this side has to try to find space for Christopher Nkunku and minutes for both Mykhailo Mudryk and Carney Chukwuemeka. Right now it’s hard to see Conor relinquishing the spot. It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next few months, as there are considerably fewer games for Chelsea this year than they’ve been used to at Stamford Bridge. Their post-International Break set of games looks a lot tougher than this opening run, so we will see how real their good underlying numbers are soon.

For Burnley, it’s another week where a bunch of young attackers look quite promising, without managing consistent end-product. We mentioned Odobert but Lyle Foster (10.5) had another decent Fantrax game and Luca Koleosho (6.5) a lively substitute appearance. But it was all for very low xG contributions. This Chelsea side is far from an easy matchup for the attack (and we’re only a few days removed from taking three points against Luton) but Kompany needs to find a way to simultaneously tighten up the defence and increase the attacking production. That’s really hard to do. They travel to Brentford after the International Break.

Everton 3 - 0 Bournemouth

These two teams are an interesting parallel to each other. Both entered the season with some optimism, following a campaign where they were closer to the bottom of the table than they’d like to be. Both also came into the season with a significant number of first team names unavailable to the manager. Whereas Everton have now managed to get most of their names back healthy and seen their performances tick upwards, Bournemouth have not. It’s not a lot more complicated than that. Everton scored early on in this game and didn’t really let up at any point. As Sean Dyche noted post-game (and as we talked about in a previous preview article), this was yet another game where they put up excellent xG numbers. Now that their lineup is looking stronger, they’re starting to score some of those chances. It’s a simple game, in many ways. Jack Harrison (23.5) got his first start and had a hugely productive 77 minutes, Abdoulaye Doucoure (23) continues to be excellent) and Dwight McNeil (18.5) is starting to remind us why his role in this Dyche team was worth a lot of draft capital. What we really liked about this performance is, typically when a team goes ahead, their level of xG production can plateau as the opposition push to equalise. This is what people mean when they talk about ‘game state’. Going into half-time 2-0 up, you might’ve expected to see Everton’s xG generation reduce in the second half, as they protected their lead. They didn’t. In fact, they generated over two times the xG of the first half in the second period. There might be a preconception of Sean Dyche as a ‘conservative’ manager. There’s little sign of it this season at Everton. Keep doing what you’re doing Sean.

For Bournemouth, we’re not really sure what they’re doing at this point. Andoni Iraola has now taken charge of 8 games and seen his Bournemouth side take three points, all of them draws. On xGD / 90 they have dropped below Luton, Fulham and Burnley and are running worse on this metric than last year, when they were bottom of the entire league. The schedule has been rough, but their performances have been equally rough. Only Marcus Tavernier (9) by merit of set-piece taking has any kind of floor in this team. They come back from the International Break facing Wolves and Burnley and anything less than two good performances there and it might be time for Bournemouth to think about making a change. The relative strength of the newly promoted sides should’ve provided a buffer for Bournemouth but at the moment they don’t look in any condition to take advantage. We’re worried for them.

Fulham 3 - 1 Sheffield United

Speaking of sides towards the bottom, Sheffield United visited Craven Cottage and were pretty comfortably thumped, despite some of the goals in this game being particularly odd. There’s little question who the player of the game was in this one, with Willian (26) reminding us all that, even at 34 years old, there’s a reason he was drafted highly this Summer. It has been a very slow start for Willian, who took time to reach fitness, but this looked like the sorts of performance we were used to last season: 3 Key Passes, 3 Shots on Target and a Goal. He hit waiver wires in a number of leagues when he didn’t start the season. He should almost definitely be rostered, even if he’s going into a particularly difficult run of games. Antonee Robinson (6.75) was a very popular pick-up this week, seeing his roster percentage jump 17.2% ahead of this game. He was unfortunate to concede the OG (and surrendering a CS in the process) and his score of 6.75 was very impressive, despite that. You’re not starting him in the next three games though so send him back to the wire with a ‘thanks for the effort’. It was also nice to see Andreas Pereira (9.5) with a respectable score, albeit boosted by an assist. He’s not really hit the heights of last season so far and we can’t blame anyone that has benched him in recent games, but he is still usable in good matchups.

We don’t have much intention of beating up on Sheffield United every week. But really there’s just not a lot to see here for Fantrax purposes at the moment. There’s just too big a talent deficit most weeks to recommend any of these guys. So we’ll wish Chris Basham (2.5) well in his recovery from what looked a horrible injury and that’s about that.

Manchester United 2 - 1 Brentford

Harry Maguire (12) to Scott McTominay (22) for a 97th minute comeback winner. That’s how we thought it’d go, right? A reprieve is a reprieve so we are sure Erik Ten Hag doesn’t mind but they really ran this one close. The balance is just not right for Manchester United this season and no amount of tinkering around with the various parts in midfield seems able to give a good foundation for both scoring goals and not conceding them. It looks increasingly like age is catching up with Casemiro (6). We say that with a lot of respect for him - it’s a similar thing to Thiago Silva at Chelsea. Age catching up with him doesn’t make him suddenly a bad player. But last season Casemiro covered up an awful lot of problems for United in a way that he doesn’t seem to be able to do this year so far. He was substituted at half time here and United were broadly better in the second half. Our worries about where the shots come from for United continue. Bruno Fernandes (11.5) had 4 of them, but both Marcus Rashford (6.5) and Rasmus Hojlund (1.5) managed a combined 0.2 xG from 5 shots. Not to be a broken record but it’s not enough volume and it’s not enough quality. There isn’t an easy sticking plaster fix to this and if you’ve drafted Rashford and Hojlund you’ve got little choice but to start them. They get to play Sheffield United, Fulham and Luton Town in the next four games (with a visit from Manchester City in the middle) and we’re hopeful that the United attackers can show signs of life in those games. If they can’t, we’re into benching territory.

For Brentford, predictably our recommended key man Mathias Jensen (19) took advantage of the league’s worst aerial duelling team to score from open play. Well, we didn’t see it coming exactly this way, but we’ll take it. Brentford were forced into a keeper change for this game, with Mark Flekken unavailable. In his place, Thomas Strakosha (10.25) put up a respectable enough score but we’re pretty confident he’d have liked another go at stopping United’s winner, given he got a hand to it. Otherwise, this looked a lot like the Brentford we’re used to seeing. Solid points tallies from Jensen and Ethan Pinnock (9.25) and at least one of the two forwards hitting double figures. This time it was Yoanne Wissa (13), with Bryan Mbeumo (7.5) a little quieter. It’s four games without a goal for Mbeumo now but he’ll have an excellent change to break that streak with a trip to Turf Moor after the break.

Crystal Palace 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest

This was the prime-time game slot for UK viewers this weekend. It did not live up to the billing. I watched it in real time but found myself zoning out so much that I have had to rewatch the extended highlights of this game. And I still don’t particularly remember anything notable from this one. Actually, that’s unfair. I remember Murillo (14.5) going on an adventurous run from his own half, ending in not one but two attempts on goal. He’s fun. Chris Wood (2.5) on the other hand, is not. Taiwo Awoniyi is reportedly going to be out for around four weeks. The International Break softens that blow, somewhat, but it’s still unfortunate for Forest who looked pretty toothless without him. From an attacking perspective, Morgan Gibbs-White (17) was the only man who returned starter value, with four Key Passes. Set pieces matter, folks.

We wondered in the Preview whether Hodgson would pack the midfield and make this game a bit of a stinker. He did that. The only Palace players in double figures were the goalkeeper, Tyrick Mitchell (17.75), Joachim Andersen (17.25) and Marc Guehi (14.25). Realistically, only Andersen was going to start from this bunch for any of us and he got the return that we’d all have hoped for. In the run up to this game, the FPL Twitter community seemed confident that Will Hughes (1) would have set piece duty. As we mentioned in the preview, there was zero evidence that this would be the case from past games and Jairo Riedewald (3.5) started with set piece duties on the day. We hope most of you thought better than to start Hughes and this was a good reminder that when we don’t know in a game projected to be low scoring, it’s probably safer not to gamble. With Newcastle and Spurs coming up, we’re not looking to start any Palace players immediately after the International Break unless Michael Olise makes a rapid return.

Brighton 2 - 2 Liverpool

Thankfully this game was something of a tonic to the turgid Saturday late game. Brighton named a really positive side for this one, throwing in Joao Pedro (3), Carlos Baleba (5.5) and Simon Adingra (21) from the start, whilst moving Solly March (18) to an attacking left-back position. Broadly, it worked pretty well in a game that ended up pretty even across the board. Adingra was the star of the day for Brighton, taking advantage of a Liverpool error early to open the scoring with a smartly placed shot from outside of the box. He also had a great chance to double his tally for the day later in the game, having worked his way into the box smartly, but for a good save from Alisson (-1.5). In our preview article, we talked about Brighton and our concerns about whether their style of playing out is working for them this season. And they conceded a penalty today from another error in possession in their own box. It’s a worrying pattern and, though we don’t expect Roberto De Zerbi to change how he plays, we have to think he’ll be expecting more from the players involved. Lewis Dunk (15.75) was out to make amends for the defence, though, and got a late equaliser for his troubles from a set piece.

Perhaps for the first time this season, Liverpool had few choices to make in attack. With Cody Gakpo injured and Diogo Jota suspended, it was always going to be Luis Diaz (5), Darwin Nunez (11.5) and Mohammed Salah (27) up front. The changes were made behind that trio, as Harvey Elliott (1) came into midfield for the suspended Curtis Jones. Elliott gives more thrust to the attack than Jones does, but he is also less of an active defender and Liverpool changed things at the half, bringing in Ryan Gravenberch (4.5). To say that Gravenberch should have scored at 53 minutes risks veering into pub-pundit mode. But hitting the crossbar at that moment, from a 0.62 xG chance, meant Liverpool only had a one-goal cushion and it was not enough to hold onto the three points. The next game for Liverpool is Everton and we’ll be keeping a close eye on how Klopp sets out his midfield for that one. We’d imagine more physical presence will be preferred and, with Jones still suspended, we’d guess Gravenberch might get the nod again.

West Ham United 2 - 2 Newcastle United

Tomas Soucek (13.5) is really rolling back the years this season. Reminiscent of his early days at the club, he’s actually scoring at his highest ever rate in terms of Fantrax points. Today it was almost entirely down to his 8th minute goal, which he took well but would’ve frankly struggled to miss, following good work from Emerson (6.75) who may have got fortunate that his touch pushed the ball around Nick Pope (1.5) but who made no mistake with the ball across to find his teammate. And the first half as a whole swung on that one moment. There wasn’t really anything else of note. Although, for the first time since signing, James Ward-Prowse (5) finished with a non-double figure tally. Oh and Mohammed Kudus (13.5) popped up with a late goal to remind us that he’s quite good, actually. He’ll break the team eventually so keep an eye on him if he hits waivers in any leagues.

Eddie Howe might’ve been tempted to make changes, but the truth was that Newcastle were a little short of options this week with various injuries and suspensions so stuck with the same lineup that started the half. It was a lot better in the second period for the Geordies in real football terms but, for Fantrax, unless you had Alexander Isak (26.5) or Kieran Trippier (20) you were pretty much out of luck. Next highest was Elliot Anderson (4.5), who we’ve talked about a fair bit, but who didn’t do a lot with his start today. We’re not overly worried about the rest of the Newcastle team going forwards, given this is a hard matchup for midfielders and attackers, but hopefully we’ll see a bit more from the rest of the squad when they return from the break.

Wolves 1 - 1 Aston Villa

Whilst his old team labour down at the bottom of the table, Gary O’Neil’s Wolves side are setting up in mid-table, courtesy of another point today against fellow-Midlanders Aston Villa. Once again you can break down Wolves Fantrax performances into ‘player that scored the goal’ and ‘Pedro Neto (12)’. It was Hwang Hee-Chan (18.5) who opened the scoring, his second in two weeks. Predictably Neto had the assist. It’s not at all hyperbolic to say that if Pedro Neto was to miss any time, this Wolves side would be hard-pressed not to crumble into crisis. Our fingers are very much crossed that we do not have to see it. They face Bournemouth next and will be without Mario Lemina (3) who picked up a second yellow card in the 94th minute. Compounding the issue is that Jean-Ricner Bellegarde still has a further game to serve in his suspension. Lemina is something of a yellow card magnet this season and would’ve missed the next game regardless, through accumulating five cards already. But with the second yellow, he’s back down to four on the card count and can miss another game if he’s booked again. The frequency of yellow cards this year certainly keep things interesting.

For Villa it was all a little bit stale. They did generate a number of decent chances, but the big ones kept falling to the likes of Pau Torres (14.25) and Ezri Konsa (4.75), rather than Ollie Watkins (10) who did manage three shots but never really troubled the Wolves keeper. He got an assist though, to extend his double-figure run. It was always going to be a comedown after the 59.5 point Gameweek, so we’ll take the 10. They’ll no doubt be disappointed that they couldn’t kick on and win this one, to keep pushing up the table, but there was nothing too horrendous here. They’ll look to get back to winning ways with a visit from West Ham after the break.

Arsenal 1 - 0 Manchester City

We’re aware that, as football fans go, we probably fall into the ‘sickos’ category in terms of what we watch and what we enjoy. And sure, this was a fairly evenly matched, balanced game. But it was not ever exciting for a neutral. A lot of teams have looked to mimic Manchester City’s various iterations over the years. This De Bruyne-less one is the one we hope they’ll skip. I know, Arsenal fans, you’re annoyed at us for having got this far in without praising you for winning. And they do deserve praise, especially for having to start the game without Bukayo Saka or, eventual match-winner, Gabriel Martinelli (16). There was also a particularly good Fantrax performance from Declan Rice (10.5) and Arsenal fans have to be delighted to see their marquee signing performing in the biggest games. But compared to recent high-scoring ties between these two, this was pretty muted.

Without the benefit of a Clean Sheet, City players did not repay their Fantrax managers trust this week, bar Phil Foden (10). You pretty much just have to take this one on the chin, sadly. Not many teams are capable of stifling Manchester City for 90 minutes, though this is now three league games in a row where City have looked pretty uninspired in attack, though Rodri’s red card was likely the major factor in the Forest result. They need Rodri back and they really need to find ways to create more with Kevin De Bruyne still a while from ready to return. They return with a game against Brighton, who are not a shut-down defence kind of team, so there’s no reason to tilt, but (thankfully for those of us who weren’t in Picks 1 or 2 this season), Erling Haaland (5.5) has not managed to improve on his gaudy numbers from last year just yet. Never write him off, though!

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International Break time once more. Trade potential is significant and, as ever, remain vigilant on the injury front - if anyone is hurt on National Team duty, or if anyone is reportedly back in training, chances are any pickups would be Free Agents, so it’s fastest finger first season.

We seem to be on a two week delay for our “Buy” players. Watkins and Sterling both having huge performances two GWs after they’re featured. Joao Pedro will breakout in GW9, you heard it here first. Now onto the Transactions: