Big Questions for GW8

What's on our minds going into the eighth week of the season?

Another week, another set of games to preview. With the International Break looming, we’re ready to savour this weekend of games. And there’s plenty to look out for. We’ve got heavyweight top of the table clashes (Arsenal vs Manchester City / Brighton vs Liverpool), we get another chance to see whether Chelsea’s recent form is real or a mirage (Chelsea vs Burnley) and we get two bottom of the table six-point clashes (Everton vs Bournemouth / Fulham vs Sheffield United).

This is also the week we’re going to start folding in our player point projections into the Preview. Chris and Will have been hard at work trialling and testing different projection methods and models for the first 7 weeks of this season, looking to get us to something we’re comfortable with. We think we’re almost there, so you’ll start to see those numbers appearing here (and on our website) to help add additional context to the topics we’re discussing. We’ll have a formal release post on Projections once they’re fully live telling you where to find them and explaining how we use them. It’s exciting stuff, even if I couldn’t explain to you how on Earth they’re actually created.

So given I’m no use in the lab, I’m back in front of the screen this weekend. And once again I have questions. This week I’m asking:

• Is Alfie Doughty a streamer or a must-roster name?

• Who breaks their slump first, Manchester United or Brentford?

• Is there any value in an Eze-less Crystal Palace?

• What to expect from the Arsenal Manchester City tie?

• Are we at all worried about Brighton?

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How far can we trust Alfie Doughty?

Picking Luton players off the waiver wire for the Double Gameweek was apparently the way to go, despite it splitting opinion for us last week. Retaining those Luton players beyond that Double Gameweek is almost definitely not the way to go. Although there may be a significant exception: set-piece taker Alfie Doughty.

He has now started four games for Luton, having been out of the lineup to start the season. In those four games, he’s got an average Fantrax point score of 15.75. If that sounds like a lot, reassure yourself that it’s actually below his expected points score of 16.93. If we remove one-week sample sizes for Neal Maupay (who incredibly has an xFpts score of 19.3, but predictably a much lower actual points score) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, that would be enough to place Doughty 5th overall in expected points.

The main driver for those points has been his role as corner taker. The only non-double figure score in the bunch is from the game against West Ham, where two things were notable. Firstly, he shared corner duties with Ross Barkley who has been out of the team for his other three starts. Secondly, West Ham are a tough team to win headers against. In the remaining three games, he has averaged six key passes per game. It’s given him a 12 point head-start even before we factor in any other stat.

So we’ve got to leave him in lineups, right? This is where we’re a little less sure. You absolutely cannot drop him, but his next five games are against Tottenham, Forest, Villa, Liverpool and Manchester United. That’s a stark contrast from games against 10-man Wolves, Everton and Burnley. We’ll learn quickly whether he’s an every-week starter, or a guy you dial up in good fixtures. And it starts this weekend. If you’re brave enough to start him, the upside is there though. They average around 6.5 corners a game, which is enough volume. Our projections model likes him a lot, despite the matchup, projecting him a score of 12 points, with a floor of 4 and ceiling of 22.

Luton Town vs Tottenham Hotspur - 12.30pm UK, 7.30am US kickoff, Saturday

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Can either team break a slump at Old Trafford?

The form table does not make pretty reading for Manchester United or Brentford. The lone bright spots in United’s league games this season were against Wolves (where they were fortunate to not concede a last minute penalty), Nottingham Forest and an unconvincing 1-0 win against Burnley. They can find little solace in the xGD table, either, as they’re 11th there (partly impacted by some tough early games on the schedule, admittedly). And to add insult to injury, they’re just coming off the back of a mid-week defeat to Galatasaray. In contrast to United, Burnley would probably rather we looked at xGD/90, as they’re sitting an impressive 6th in that table, compared to 14th in the actual points tally. It doesn’t tell the whole story either, though, given they racked up an awful lot of xG against Fulham (over 3.5) and not a huge amount in their most recent three games. It’s the first of a number of games this week where both teams really need a win. So where should we be looking for Fantrax points in this one?