The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 36
In which City and Arsenal kept their perfect run-in records, Chelsea turned up again and relegation started to look pretty decided
Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 36.
This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.
As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!
Luton Town 1 - 1 Everton
Luton are running out of time if they’re going to truly chase down Nottingham Forest in the relegation race. Three points (but crucially a massive 11 Goals behind on Goal Difference) is a lot with two Games to go. And against an Everton side who would be forgiven for not necessarily giving it their all at this point, Luton couldn’t generate enough quality chances to come away with more than a point. That’s not to say they didn’t get any chances - they took 18 Shots. It’s just most of them were speculative at best, particularly late on when they were guilty of taking ill-advised pot-shots from distance. 0.81 total Expected Goals from 18 shots is not good. That said, for Fantrax purposes, this was a lovely return to form for Alfie Doughty (20) who was credited with 6 Key Passes. When Luton get chances in a game you can usually bet that the biggest share of those chances came from Doughty’s boots. He’s not an obvious target to transfer to another team if Luton go down, but this year would certainly be one to remember Fantrax wise if he does get another crack at the league in future. Outside of his contribution, the big positive for Luton is that they got Elijah Adebayo (13.5) back on the pitch. They’ve missed him - having been out since early February. If they are to pull off something miraculous in the next two Games, you’d imagine they’ll need him.
Everton were pretty turgid here in all honesty. But with safety (in points terms, if not financial) secured, you can certainly understand and forgive it. Just 0.34 xG from open play against this Luton side tells you most of what you need to know. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (17) did get his 3rd Goal in his last 4 Games Started, courtesy of an early Penalty. It’s been a mixed year for Calvert-Lewin. He’s been available for considerably more Games than his previous two injury-riddled years. But his overall output level has not been good enough to make up for his shooting cold-streak. Given Everton’s financial situation, it seems likely he’s their starting option again next season. We’re unsure he’s anything more than a hopeful Stream. Jarrad Branthwaite (16.25) was the second-highest Everton score and his campaign can only be considered a success. Everton started the season looking pretty ropey in defence and it was a considerable improvement once they brought Branthwaite in. The challenge now will be whether Everton can keep him, whilst under considerably financial pressure (and seemingly still with uncertain club ownership). Everton do get to play Sheffield United next, which suggests big points scores incoming, even if they’re relaxed.
Arsenal 3 - 0 Bournemouth
They’re down to 2 Games left to play and Arsenal are doing everything they can to make another repeat title for Manchester City difficult. Bournemouth are a good side. Their form in 2024 made them look one of the trickiest remaining fixtures for Mikel Arteta’s side. Arsenal, as they have many times this season, delivered a bit of a paddling. 25 Shots, 3.38 xG and 3 Goals, whilst limiting Bournemouth to basically nothing in attack (disallowed Goal not withstanding). You can probably guess from that statline that the top of the points charts are full of Arsenal names this Gameweek. And at the top of the pile is Declan Rice (28.5) whose Goal, Assist and general all-round excellence set the tone for Arsenal. He’s been an unbelievable signing, regardless of the price tag, and deserves the fact that he’s being talked about in Player of the Year conversations. He came with an ADP around 50 in the Summer. He’s delivered Top-20 output and he’s been available basically every week. It’ll be very interesting to see where he goes next year. We’ve not really been able to write too much Arsenal related advice all year because everyone’s just been rostered the whole time and they’ve not had many injuries. They face Manchester United next, before finishing the season with a visit from Everton. Perfection is likely needed to be in with a chance. On current form, perfection doesn’t look that unlikely.
This was a pretty brutal one for Bournemouth. The only outfield player escaping with a respectable score was Dango Ouattara (9.5), continuing to play at left back. We wouldn’t say that his 5 Aerial Duels won is particularly representative of his usual output but if anyone was bold enough to stream him (and didn’t start him as a Defender in multi-position leagues), they’d be glad of the lifeline. This result all but ends Bournemouth’s push for European football next season but there’s still a top-half finish to play for. They face Brentford next, before facing Chelsea on the final day.
Brentford 0 - 0 Fulham
No sugar coating it: this was a bad game of football. Other than the defenders and goalkeepers on each side, the only player to come out with any note was Alex Iwobi (16). His 4 Key Passes and 3 Shots had him standing out as the most threatening player on the day.
There isn’t really anything much else to talk about and we won’t waste your time pretending otherwise. There were other, more interesting Games.
Burnley 1 - 4 Newcastle United
Did you start Arijanet Muric (19)? We’ve been banging the Muric drum for weeks now and here, despite conceding 4 Goals, he’s popped up with a 19 Point performance. He made 7 Saves (including a Penalty Kick Save) and had 2 Key Passes. It basically doesn’t matter how badly Burnley struggle, Muric gets points. And they really did struggle here. Newcastle pretty much blew them away in the first-half and, although they were a little better in the second, Newcastle’s foot was firmly off the accelerator by the time Dara O’Shea (16.5) headed in a 0.01 xG chance in the 86th minute. It’s the second game in a row that Newcastle have pummeled a side but whilst cheaply throwing away a set piece Goal to prevent Clean Sheets. Did anyone else start Lewis Hall (3.75) and Tino Livramento (8.75) again?
The Fantrax star on the day for Newcastle ended up being Jacob Murphy (28), despite the fact that he only played 70 minutes. He managed to get himself 6 Key Passes in that time, tallying 2 Assists. He also had 2 Shots that didn’t hit the target. He’s averaged 24 Fantrax points in his last two Games and will be in a Double Gameweek next week. We’re not all that confident he starts both (or in fact either) Game, but he’s shown us across the season that when he does, he’s not a passenger. The other notably story was Alexander Isak (20) continuing to progress in the Golden Boot race, finishing this game just a Goal behind Erling Haaland. More on that later. But with 3 Games to go, Isak is still very much in the running. His next chance to add to his total comes when Brighton visit on Saturday.
Sheffield United 1 - 3 Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United briefly flirted with giving us a truly fun last few weeks in the relegation battle. Ben Brereton Diaz (17) scored a Penalty (that he also won) to take the lead after nearly 20 minutes. It was a nightmare start for Forest. Quality tells, though, and Callum Hudson-Odoi (27) clearly has no intention of being relegated. We said in the Preview that Hudson-Odoi was the obvious danger-man for Forest and here we saw Sheffield United commit the mistake of allowing him to cut from the left onto his right-foot not once, but twice. The curled finish into the right-hand side of the net from there is his signature move and he made no mistake in both equalising and later sealing the win when given the chance. It could quite easily have been an even bigger day for him, with another effort hitting the post. We doubt he’ll dwell on it too long, though, given how massive these 3 points look in the context of the other results. They host Chelsea next (a reunion for Hudson-Odoi) before the final-day trip to Turf Moor. They’re not totally out of the woods yet, but will be feeling much better about their survival odds now.
Sheffield United did have chances to get back into this Game, with Gustavo Hamer (19.5) and his 5 Key Passes acting as the primary conductor. Cameron Archer (7) is a player who shows a lot of promise, but couldn’t make anything from either of his two ‘Big Chances’ on the day. In a different context, we’d say that fine margins matter. But this game saw Sheffield United concede their 98th, 99th and 100th Goal of the Season. There’s nothing fine about those margins, unfortunately. Barring an improbable double Clean Sheet to end the season, they’re going to go down as the all-time worst Premier League defence in terms of Goals scored, including teams that played in 42 Game seasons. It’s an unpleasant sting to an all-too-often unpleasant season for the Blades. If they can keep their squad together, though, they’ve got proven Championship firepower in their forward line. That always gives a side a good shot at coming back up.
Manchester City 5 - 1 Wolves
Describing Manchester City’s late-season form as ‘machine-like’ or ‘clinical’ is a cliché, we know. But the reason you hear it so much is that no other team flips the switch into this efficiency mode quite like Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side do. It’s unquestionably true that this year’s Manchester City side have not always been as effective as last year’s side. But they’ve been missing Kevin De Bruyne (5.5) for most of the season and Erling Haaland (54) has gone from starting 33 Games to 26 Games. Every team has injuries (and very few have City’s squad depth to cover for those injuries) but a big part of the story as to why we’re bullish on City continuing to win out is that the two are back. And today was Haaland’s riposte to those who’ve (once again) questioned his ability. Here he took hold of the game and scored 4 Goals from 7 Shots on Target (8 Total Shots, 2 of them Penalties) to make this a comfortable win for City. The narrative around him obscures the fact that he’s on pace to finish the year with almost a Goal per Game and winning the Golden Boot. Not bad for a man we’re reliably told has been out of form. City also saw their other star man Rodri (23.5) go big in this one, contributing 2 Assists from 5 Key Passes. He and Rice single-handedly make the case for what a top-level anchoring midfielder bring to a side and show why trying to restrict players with specific position labels is ultimately not that helpful. Great midfielders contribute in all phases of the game. Rodri is no exception. City go into their Double Gameweek with a high-likelihood of some rotation. Rodri will likely play every minute, though. And he’ll probably win at least a few managers their League Title (Guardiola included.
Not great from Wolves. Hwang Hee-Chan (12) scored, so he got points. The next best starter was Jose Sa (5) and it only got worse from there. They had just 40% of the ball and they turned that 40% into basically nothing. Just 2 Shots total. They were smothered and outclassed here. Crystal Palace up next is a nicer matchup, though not an easy one by any means, before they travel to Anfield.
Brighton 1 - 0 Aston Villa
We said in the Preview that we thought the adrenaline associated with their Champions League push might give Villa what they’d need to see this one through. It did not. They were woeful, truthfully. They had an Expected Goals value of 0.05 over 90 minutes. It’s understandable that their exertions are catching up with them but boy was this rough. Deputy Goalkeeper Robin Olsen (20) was kept busy and did get a Penalty Kick Save to bolster his day. We can’t imagine why anyone would’ve jumped on him as a streamer, but he did see his rostered percentage jump by 0.8% this week, so clearly there were teams turning to him. Villa’s points advantage over Tottenham, who also face Manchester City, is probably enough already. But we don’t think they had the foot off the pedal, they just had nothing left in the tank. The injuries are mounting too with Morgan Rogers (3) the latest to limp off here. That’s a little worrying Fantrax-wise for the next game, given they’re playing again Thursday before hosting Liverpool. They’re definitely off the streamer-watch in that one but you probably can’t justify dropping the likes of Ollie Watkins (3.5) even with the fatigue element. If you want to play amateur psychologist, you at least know that they’ll either have the confidence boost of a comeback and progression to a European Final or added motivation to ensure they qualify for 4th spot, knowing it’s all that’s left to play for, when Monday comes around.
Brighton were lively enough here. Credit where it’s due, because we’ve certainly taken shots at the South-Coast side the last few weeks. Villa didn’t put up much opposition, but they still had to go and win the game. And it took them a while to do it. When the breakthrough eventually came, it came via Joao Pedro (19) who bounced back from missing the initial Penalty Kick to tuck away the header on the rebound. He was influential on the day, taking 4 Shots and with 4 Chances Created, but it was his team-mate Simon Adingra (21.5) who topped the Fantrax points on the day with 5 Key Passes and 4 Shots on Target. Ending with no Goals or Assists from an xG+xA of 1.06 is a little unfortunate, but it was a good showing from Adingra who has had a fairly uneven campaign, albeit with a lot put onto his young shoulders. There was also a bright cameo from Julio Enciso (8) off the bench that served to remind us just how big a talent there is behind the injury lay-off. His return will be one of the more fascinating stories next season. Brighton head to St James’s Park next, before a short-turnaround to host Chelsea. They may be out of European contention themselves, but they play all three of the teams chasing 6th and may still have a big say in who qualifies. That’s something to play for at least.
Chelsea 5 - 0 West Ham United
Back in Gameweek 30, we talked about Nicolas Jackson (43.5) and specifically whether he was the form man for the final stretch of the season at the forward position. His post AFCoN form was looking good and Chelsea’s fixture list meant he had more Games to play than many other forwards. Fast forward and we are seeing a pretty rosy picture. Since the beginning of March, Jackson sits as the number 6 Overall Player in Fantrax Points. Yes, the distribution of points has been uneven, but he’s had 7 double figure points returns in 11 Games. He was a favourite last Summer but had a mixed start to the Season, looking every-bit the young, raw player that he is. He’s already showing remarkable development and the ceiling here looks massive. Even in Chelsea’s recent games against Arsenal and Manchester City, where most of the focus was on chances he might’ve scored, his ability to trouble two of the best defences in the League was notable. And against West Ham, he really put things together. 2 Goals and 1 Assist was the headline and he earned it, racking up 1.76 xG + xA on the day. Chelsea were firing on all cylinders here against a pretty tepid West Ham and Jackson took full advantage. He’s always had a great chemistry with Cole Palmer (26), penalty discussions apart, but an enticing element of Chelsea’s recent games has been a growing understanding with Noni Madueke (40). Madueke has been a frustrating player in many ways, not able to put together the clear technical ability with good decision making (or defensive workrate). Not so in the last three games and he’s reaping the rewards. And it’s well-timed on his part, given it’s not clear he’s a starter when everyone’s healthy at Chelsea. This run in the team was an opportunity to show he should be and he’s showing things.
By the time the whistle blew at Stamford Bridge on Thursday night, this Chelsea side looked sneaky value into the Double Gameweek: they were hitting form, their fixtures were nice and they basically had no selection options because of injury. This game saw a litany of senior players return to the bench, which complicates things. We’d assume they’ll be careful, given their record of reinjuries. But we can’t be totally sure what they’ll do minutes-wise. Either way, we expect Jackson and Madueke to get first-chance in the games next week. You should start both.
West Ham clearly just want this season to end and this was a really poor showing. Mohammed Kudus (18.5) did score well, mostly due to an obscene 14 Successful Take-Ons. The problem for him (and West Ham) in turning that into anything bigger was that most of them were happening in the middle third of the field. A point is a point, so we’re not complaining, but dribbles further up the field are inherently more valuable because you’re more likely to turn that action into a Shot or a Key Pass (and by extension a Goal or a Key Pass). Here, he had very little opportunity to get Shots off (2 in total, both long-range) and he didn’t have any Chances Created for others. West Ham host Luton Town next. You’d still have to call them favourites, given Luton’s injuries. But it wouldn’t shock us if Luton got something on the basis of West Ham’s recent form.
Liverpool 4 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur
The one time we don’t say that you should stream Harvey Elliott (36) and he goes and does that… We’ll admit that we’re a little surprised that Liverpool have put Elliott and Cody Gakpo (26) back into the lineup to close the season. But with points returns like this, it’s difficult to fault. Elliott had a brilliant day, with a Goal and Assist from 4 Shots on Target and 5 Key Passes. This is the sort of game his talent suggests we should see more often and maybe in a new system and something of a Changing of the Guard at Liverpool next year Elliott might find himself more central to the gameplan there. But, for all the talk of the new, it was a familiar name that opened the scoring. Mo Salah (34.5) might be getting older. He might not like being on the bench much. But he’s still as good as anyone in the League, in case any of us needed a reminder. He’s a volume machine and he’s good at kicking a football. That’s a good combination. Liverpool’s day was slightly let down by conceding twice, preventing any of those Clean Sheet points we all crave. But the game was done long before Spurs were able to put the ball in the net. Liverpool travel to Villa before hosting Wolves on the final day and will want to finish strongly to give Jurgen Klopp the send-off his time at Anfield deserves.
For Spurs, Son Heung-Min (19.5) and Brennan Johnson (14) were the only two starters to return anything like good value. The James Maddison (2) benching is likely to protect their creative midfielder following his injuries (and subsequent form struggles) but it does take a lot from Spurs as a competent attacking unit. They woke up in this one only once Maddison and Richarlison (20.5) entered the field but there was never a feeling they’d be able to make back 4 Goals. Spurs have seen their early-season momentum and good vibes drop quite a bit in the run-in. This made it 4 straight losses for Ange Postecoglou, who has spoken about the need for players to ‘buy-in’. Thankfully for Postecoglou, they host Burnley next and Sheffield United on the closing day. Yes, there’s the small matter of a visit from Manchester City sandwiched in between. But as it’s the second part of a DGW, you don’t need to worry too much. You’ll start the attackers who play against Burnley and hope that they can pick up a few points against City as a bonus.
Given we are headed into Gameweek 37 (and a massive Double Gameweek at that), we thought we’d do something a little different with Transaction Corner this week. Instead of talking about just individual adds / drops, we’re going to look at our confidence level for the Teams who are playing the Double and shoutout who we would / wouldn’t stream. It’s going to be fairly fast paced here. Expect more coverage in the Preview. So here, in order of least to most confidence, are the DGW teams:
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