Welcome back to the Overthinking Football Gameweek Preview. The International Break is mercifully behind us and we can get back to looking at the weekend’s action.
We’ve been hard at work trawling through the upcoming fixtures, consuming player news and looking at our Overthinking Football Projections Model to make sense of what we’re likely to see this weekend.
As ever, in looking at what’s coming up I have questions. This week I’m asking:
Newcastle vs West Ham: the weekend’s most intriguing game?
Is there any hope for fun at the Etihad?
Will Fulham keep rolling?
Which Chelsea forward are we backing to excel down the stretch?
Can we expect more drama as Manchester United head to Brentford?
Can Newcastle land a punch on West Ham and take a grip of a European spot?
We’re starting the Gameweek with a game that could be very important in the race for Europa / Europa Conference League qualification between two sides who have had fairly up-and-down seasons to date. It’s a fascinating opener and welcome back for proper football.
Newcastle have had a torrid 2024 when it comes to Premier League form. They’ve won only 3 times (against Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Wolves) and look a shadow of the side that so professionally worked their way to a Top-Four finish last season. With PSR constraints tightening, it might feel a little precarious for Newcastle. But this is still a side with a whole lot of talent. A lot of it is injured, sure. They lost Sven Botman, likely for the remainder of the season, recently. Truthfully though, he’s not looked the same player since his return from previous injury and it wouldn’t surprise us at all to hear that he was never really in peak condition this year. But Newcastle do still have a lot of talent in the side. In Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes they’ve got two players that almost the entire league would cast envious glances at. With West Ham heading North, the key question will be how Newcastle break down a David Moyes low-block side, likely without the set-play specialism of Kieran Trippier. In their last four games against Premier League opposition, Newcastle have created 0.19, 0.49, 0.61 and 0.16 xG from Open Play. It’s a small sample, but it speaks to the challenges Newcastle have faced in creating good chances in recent games. West Ham do not make that easy for any side.
The projections model likes Isak’s chances, backing him with a healthy 12.17 xFpts. Whilst I’m fully on-board with Isak as Newcastle’s main threat, I’m pretty concerned about Newcastle’s ability to create for him. Eddie Howe will hope that a rest is as good as a break when it comes to getting his side ready for this one, but we’re definitely not rushing to start Newcastle names here outside of the obvious. Were we thinking of streamers, in a take type that almost never ages well, I’d actually be more tempted by the potential of West Ham defenders to rack up defensive stats with some Clean Sheet potential. So book in that inevitable Newcastle 5-0 win now.
Newcastle United vs West Ham United - 12.30pm UK, 7.30am US kickoff, Saturday
Can Arsenal and Man City play a fun game? Please?
The game these two played out at the Emirates was quite possibly the most dull game of the season. With no offence meant to fans of both sides. But almost nothing happened. The most disappointing thing was that for 86 minutes, both teams seemed basically ok with that. It was early in the season and had the feeling of two teams happy to feel-out the other without ever wanting to extend themselves. The context feels quite different as we move into the last 10 Games. Arsenal sit a point ahead of Manchester City (but with a +11 Goal Difference) in the title race and, although nothing is going to be decided here, it feels like this has the potential to be a ‘statement game’ for both sides. Fans of both are no doubt a mixture of excited and optimistic. For neutrals, is there any hope?
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