Big Questions for GW17

What's on our minds going into the seventeenth week of the season?

Welcome back to the Overthinking Football Gameweek Preview. It’s Week 17, and after a short break from the usual Preview schedule to account for the previous round of Midweek fixtures, it’s back to normal service here at Overthinking Football HQ.

We’ve been hard at work trawling through the upcoming fixtures, consuming player news and looking at our Overthinking Football Projections Model to make sense of what we’re likely to see this weekend.

As ever, I have questions. This week I’m asking:

• Are the (heavily injured) wheels coming off at Newcastle?

• What should we expect from a Turf Moor homecoming?

• Will Pochettino ever get the balance he wants in his Chelsea side?

• Could there be a worse set of circumstances for a United team heading to Anfield?

• Is Jack Grealish ready to go on a run?

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Are there just too many games for Newcastle to navigate?

When we wrote the Roundup for last weekend’s games, one stat really stood out to me. Newcastle United, who are deep in a well-documented player availability crisis, will have played 15 games between the start of November and the New Year's fixture away at Liverpool. Their previous opponents (and rivals for European spots) Tottenham only have 10 in the same period and even that has led to a number of muscular injuries and tired looking performances. No Newcastle fan wanted to exit the Champions League in midweek, but for the long-term success of the club, it probably is not a terrible thing that they’re going to be less busy in the New Year.

They’ve mostly navigated their availability struggles reasonably well results-wise, but digging under the surface a little and there’s reasons for some caution. They heavily lost the xG battles against Dortmund, Bournemouth, Paris Saint Germain, Everton and Tottenham and were relatively even with Milan in the most recent tie. There were positive games, against Manchester United in particular, and their Fantrax scores have been ok. But they certainly do not look fresh right now. It might be the perfect time for a resurgent Fulham side to turn up on their door. Especially given Kieran Trippier and Anthony Gordon both are likely to miss this game, with Trippier suspended and Gordon facing an uncertain spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

With those two missing, we’re tempted to downgrade our opinions of the other Newcastle players. The projections still consider Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson and Joelinton to be double figure level starters. They’ll likely have to score to hit those tallies and with two of their bigger attacking threats missing, we’re certainly not looking to stream other Newcastle players in this one. They’ve done remarkably to not collapse under the strain of a game every three days, with only an 18 man senior-squad available, but in Fantrax we’re not looking for those sorts of medals, it’s all about the cold points tallies.

Newcastle United vs Fulham - 3.00pm UK, 10.00am US kickoff, Saturday

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Can Sean Dyche get one over his old team and extend Everton’s comfortable gap from the relegation spots?

Everton have already escaped the relegation spots following their points deduction (though questions around their proposed new ownership does threaten them with further points deductions which they’ll hope to avoid). This weekend presents them with a real opportunity. Bournemouth face Luton, which means they can either make up ground on one of the teams above them (Bournemouth sitting 6 points ahead currently) or extend their comfort level over the team in 18th (currently a 4 point gap). To do that, Sean Dyche needs to return to Turf Moor and come away with a win. There was a time when that was a prospect that many teams found difficult, with Dyche’s Burnley side adept at ensuring that teams had to work for every point. Vincent Kompany is yet to find that formula, though Burnley are not particularly bad defensively, sitting sandwiched between Manchester United and Tottenham in total xGA. Their struggles this year have come in scoring enough goals to pick up points. But in recent weeks, we’ve seen Burnley look a little more lively (notably thumping Sheffield United for 5). So is there a chance that Burnley can make this Turf Moor reunion uncomfortable for their former boss?