The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 16

In which we saw another Fulham glut and Bournemouth continue their form amidst a whole lot of tired looking teams. And it's not even halfway through December...

Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 16.

This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.

As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!

Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Liverpool

Crystal Palace came into this game in a crisis of form and missing both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise from the starting lineup. Naturally they took the lead (and broadly matched Liverpool threat-wise for much of this game). When their goal did eventually come, it was for Jean-Philippe Mateta (15), who came on as a half-time substitute for Odsonne Edouard (4.5) who appeared to pick up a knee injury. An already stretched squad will be stretched even further if he has to miss time, especially given Jordan Ayew (-2) picked up a red card late in this game that will rule him out for Saturday’s trip to the Etihad. And things collapsed late for Palace once down to ten. The end result is that they’re staring down a particularly rough fixture run, in a bad run of form, and with multiple key players at best doubtful. As with a number of teams we’ll talk about here, the best gift Palace could get this festive period is to get the squad healthy. Until then we’re going to give them the widest possible berth for streaming purposes.

As you’d probably guess from the box score, this wasn’t a vintage day for Liverpool either. Wataru Endo (0) struggled badly in this one and we can’t imagine that he’ll be in the team for the weekend’s game against Manchester United. And, as was the case for Palace, a big percentage of the Fantrax points in this one for Liverpool fell to substitutes, with Harvey Elliott (11) and Curtis Jones (8) making the most of their limited time on the pitch to snatch the win. We tend to think that reading much into this one for Liverpool is probably a bad idea, but Klopp clearly needs to find ways to rest some of the players that are looking increasingly tired without losing control of games. Mo Salah (19) remains incredible but he’s going to be away to International Duty soon. The others really need to have stepped up their game again by that point.

Brighton 1 - 1 Burnley

The Jay Rodriguez (12) resurgence in the last few weeks has been a particularly surprising but much needed boost for Burnley. He has 2 Goals and 1 Assist in 4 games. I’m deeply suspicious of it being something that will continue and his Rostered % remains small. Equally, if James Trafford (21.25) faces 10 shots every week, it’s probably unlikely he comes out looking as rosy as this most games. But despite Brighton throwing the kitchen sink, Burnley were able to hold them to just a single goal. Some of the Brighton attacking volume is tied to game-state as Wilson Odobert (11), in because of the injuries ahead of him, struck from outside the box just before half-time to give Burnley a surprise lead. Odobert was fairly lively but without the goal the points were not there so he’s not someone I’d be rushing to invest in at this point either. In fact, given their next opponents are the resurgent Everton (and a return to Turf Moor for Sean Dyche) and Liverpool and Aston Villa in the next four, we aren’t rushing for any Burnley names on this week’s wire.

For Brighton this season has been incredibly stop-start. A good win versus Brentford in midweek, followed by another game where they dominated possession and xG only to fail to capitalise on the dominance at either end of the pitch. Thankfully, we know that they still have Fantrax assets that you can trust no matter what. Pascal Gross (30) is chief amongst them and he attempted a huge 16 crosses in this one. He did finish with the Assist for Simon Adingra (22) and might consider himself unlucky to have only got one. In the Preview we asked whether Joao Pedro (8.5) is only good against tired defenders, mostly in jest. Today’s game was fine. But it’s hard to escape the frustration when he puts up better scores in 30 minute cameos than he does in his starts. Brighton’s next game is a tough matchup with Arsenal. Both sides will be keen to bounce-back from this weekend’s disappointments.

Manchester United 0 - 3 Bournemouth

Speaking of disappointments… We don’t really know where to start with this one. You can look at the stats and say “well the xG was reasonably even”. But with Bournemouth ahead from the 5th minute, you’d often expect to see that lead to United comfortably leading in attempts and xG as they chased the game. Instead the only side that truly looked like scoring all day were Bournemouth. Dango Ouattara (1) was ruled to have committed a foul to rule out a late fourth goal. It wouldn’t have flattered Bournemouth. When United beat Chelsea, we talked about their fragility in allowing straight runs at their defence. Chelsea didn’t punish it but Bournemouth weren’t so lenient. There were some huge Fantrax days on the Bournemouth side. Marcus Tavernier (22.5) and Dominic Solanke (14.5) have been having good seasons regardless of Bournemouth’s real form but recent games have seen Lewis Cook (24.5) look like a solid streaming option, despite some tough matchups. The defenders we’re still a little more hesitant to back but if you’re one of the 2% of managers that added Marcos Senesi (27) ahead of this game, fair play to you. With Luton Town and Nottingham Forest the next two games, this is an opportunity for Bournemouth to turn this good form into daylight between them and the relegation spots, which has to be priority one for them.

It was so shambolic for United at times that I’m not even really sure what to write about it. Winning Manager, Player and Goal of the Month went to their heads fast, it seems. Bruno Fernandes (13.5) put up 6 Key Passes attempting to drag United back into it but this was as stark a reminder as you could want that hoping Scott McTominay (4) is going to pop up and score you goals isn’t a viable strategy on a weekly basis. They need some spark in attack and some steel in midfield and the current group really aren’t cutting it. With Liverpool next, you really fear for them.

Sheffield United 1 - 0 Brentford

With Bryan Mbeumo unavailable, most of the preview content for this one focused on whether Brentford would be able to generate enough attack without him, given they were already missing Mathias Jensen. Spoiler: they didn’t. With Neal Maupay (4.5) as the focal point, they didn’t really get going at all in this one. There were some average starter scores from some of the usual suspects. But really not a lot else. The barrel is being scraped to find eleven Premier League quality starters at Brentford at the moment and a visit from high-flying Aston Villa is not what the Doctor ordered for Thomas Frank.

In the Preview, we did talk about some potential streams you could look to from Sheffield United. James Mcatee (15.5) was our recommendation, but based purely on him being the main threat for a goal contribution in the last few games. Sure enough, he would’ve returned value for anyone that started him here, but only because of the Goal. Our other recommendation was to stream Wes Foderingham (17) if you didn’t trust Neal Maupay. Sure enough, boosted by a Clean Sheet, Foderingham returned good value for those that used him. With Chelsea on the cards at the weekend, you could make a similar argument about xG wastefulness, but we would probably not recommend it. For all their faults this season, Chelsea have dispatched both Luton and Burnley very comfortably already.

Wolves 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest

This probably feels a bit like a missed opportunity for both sides, though the point keeps Wolves equal to Chelsea in the table and puts Forest 5 points ahead of Luton, so maybe both will take it in the bigger picture. The game itself was fairly dominated by Wolves for big stretches, with Matheus Cunha (21) in particular getting himself 4 pretty good shots (worth 0.93 xG) and getting the Goal the performance deserved. And we saw another assist for Pablo Sarabia (15) who was another streamer tip from the Preview. He’s on borrowed time in the starting lineup, but he might get usage again against West Ham. You could probably do worse as a spot start.

So with me just saying that Wolves dominated this game, why do I say that Forest will be disappointed to leave with just a point? It mostly comes down to Harry Toffolo (15.25) who, playing as a LWB, scored Forest’s opener and had a fantastic chance to retake the lead in the 70th minute. He’s been a real threat in attack whenever Forest have unleashed him this season and, given we’ve talked about them lacking at the striker position, Steve Cooper switching formation to get more from his wide wing-backs was probably a move he’ll want to repeat on Friday night for Tottenham’s visit. The only other Forest thing of note was that their defensive injury run continues, with Murillo (6) the latest to exit with a knock. You probably don’t want to stream a Forest defender next Gameweek, but if you do want to gamble, you’ll have to watch for team-sheets in all likelihood to see who makes the cut.

Aston Villa 1 - 0 Arsenal

Unai Emery would’ve been a very smug man on Saturday evening. And rightly so. His Villa side have just seen off Manchester City and Arsenal in consecutive games. They sit third with their next two games against Brentford and Sheffield United. They should expect, at worst, to be firmly in the Top 4 when Christmas Day comes around. This one wasn’t pretty, by any stretch. They scored in the 7th minute via John McGinn (19) and they didn’t really have any other notable attacking chances. Their tally at the end of the game was 0.57 xG. Their top Fantrax points scorer was another ex-Arsenal man in Emi Martinez (22) who perhaps showed Mikel Arteta what he is missing, with Arsenal seemingly in a Goalkeeping dilemma of their own making.

That said, this game wasn’t really about the Goalkeepers. With Arsenal behind so early, they had a lot of time to generate goals and they were unable to do it. Villa had a reputation of being a leaky defence earlier in the season (and often because of their own errors) but there has been little sign of that in the last two games. Arsenal had just 1 Shot on Target in the second half of this game (a William Saliba (3) attempt from a corner). They were stifled and even reliable Bukayo Saka (8.5) couldn’t find his way into double figure Fantrax points in that environment. They get a visit from Brighton next, who are a more generous defence. But like many of the other teams we’ve written about, Arsenal have not rotated their side much and the fatigue may just be beginning to seep in a little.

Everton 2 - 0 Chelsea

Sean Dyche was somewhat dismissive of Mauricio Pochettino’s claim after this match that Chelsea were the better side. And we have sympathy for Dyche in that regard. Chelsea were fine for a lot of this game. But Everton were what we’re getting used to from this side: resilient. It’s not a secret that Abdoulaye Doucoure (14.5) is one of our favourites here. And we’ve written plenty about Vitalii Mykolenko (15.5) in recent weeks. The performance we were most impressed with in this one (amongst a number of notables) was Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10.5). The Centre Back pairing that Chelsea deployed made him work for every scrap and he looked entirely capable of competing which, for a man with his injury history, is a great sign that he’s feeling back to something like form.

For Chelsea, we could write about a lot of things. But we will focus on two specifically. Firstly, Chelsea actually looked a lot more composed defensively in this game for most of the tie. Once he’s back to peak condition, it’s hard to see that Benoit Badiashile (5) comes out of the side. However, with Reece James (0) leaving with another hamstring problem in this one, Chelsea are facing yet another period without even half of their first choice defence. It’s a real problem because the drop-off from first choice to backup is significant for them. The second thing we’d mention is up-front. We talk about xG a lot here and this game was a great reminder that xG is not something that just happens to a striker. Armando Broja (1) might have a long career ahead of him. But he’s not close to the level Chelsea need him to be to lift this lethargic attack and he’s a significant step down from Nicolas Jackson (0). In 70 minutes, Broja generated 0.10 xG. This is a real concern heading into January, as it’s almost a guarantee that Christopher Nkunku will not be ready for back to back games without risking reinjury. We expect Jackson back in for the visit of Sheffield United.

Fulham 5 - 0 West Ham

Moving from an out of form West London team to talk about one of the most in-form goal-scoring teams in Europe now (yes seriously). Fulham have 16 goals in their last 4 games. And the xG has been pretty great too. There’s been some good finishing, sure, but they’ve just been better than most of the teams they’ve faced (with the understandable exception of Liverpool). Every single Fulham starter at the weekend was in double figures for points. Perhaps surprisingly from his recent form, the one we tipped, Antonee Robinson (14.75) was one of the least involved on the day. But if you streamed Harry Wilson (23), Alex Iwobi (14.5) or Raul Jimenez (17) you are probably feeling pretty good. The only disappointment for Fulham will be the forced withdrawal of Willian (15) at half-time. We don’t really know yet what to make of this form, but they get a Newcastle away day next and look a much physically fresher side than the Magpies do at this point in the season. There’ll be plenty of eyes on them in that one, though.

On request of a Mr David Moyes, I’ve been asked not to write too much about this West Ham performance. It was terrible (perhaps due to a mystery illness making its way through camp?). It’s hard to imagine that it’ll repeat. They get Wolves at the weekend and we’re still starting all of the usual West Ham suspects.

Luton Town 1 - 2 Manchester City

Admit it, you got caught up in it. That brief moment when we all thought Luton had a chance of taking points from this City side. No Erling Haaland, who seems set for at least a few games on the sideline, and then behind at half-time to Elijah Adebayo (14). The fairy-tale felt on. But truthfully, Luton struggled outside of that goal to lay a glove even close to Manchester City. That one chance was responsible for 0.25 of their 0.33 total xG. Unsurprisingly, given what I just said, the Goal and Assist were the only Fantrax relevant moments for Luton.

And sure enough, the second half was a harsh reminder that David doesn’t often beat Goliath. City amped up the pressure and Bernardo Silva (19) and Jack Grealish (15) dispatched this underdog story in a three minute spell around the hour mark. We do worry a bit for City without Haaland, but they get Crystal Palace and Sheffield United in their next three, so there’s no real reason to doubt any of the Fantrax assets you are rostering. But once again this is a PSA that you do not want City defenders.

Tottenham Hotspur 4 - 1 Newcastle

Spurs run of form in November and December had been brutal. This was the perfect response. Newcastle looked every bit a team that have both an ongoing injury crisis and a punishing fixture list. That brutal schedule for Spurs saw them play 6 matches. In that same period Newcastle have played 9. It really showed this week. Spurs had too much energy for Newcastle straight from minute one. They welcomed back Richarlison (27) and moved Dejan Kulusevski (14.5) to a central role, which saw popular recent streamer Giovani Lo Celso (1) relegated back to bench duty. It really worked for them in attack. They racked up 3.81 xG and a huge number of shots in the penalty area. Newcastle just had no answer for what they were throwing at them.

The away side did get a consolation goal, which did result in a Fantrax relevant score for Joelinton (11.5). Most of the rest of the side didn’t get going, though, other than Bruno Guimaraes (10.5) who racked up a particularly high number of defensive interventions (4 Tackles Won, 7 Interceptions, 1 Blocked Shot) as Newcastle tried to stop the tide. Although we’re slightly Newcastle skeptical from the underlying numbers, they’re also nowhere near as bad as they played this weekend. What worries us, though, is that their fixture list gets no better. Because of their Champions League and EFL Cup competitions, they’ll play another 5 games in the next 15 days. That’s a lot of football.

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Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.