xFpts: Midfielders
NOTE: Data is only included through week 29 of the 2019/2020 season. For up-to-date ranks, please refer to our xFpts Ranking page.
We are concluding our xFpts overview with our midfielder analyses. In order to avoid belaboring our rationale and strategy for modeling xFpts, I direct you to our comprehensive introductory post. This entry will largely be a resource data dump with a few interesting conclusions scattered throughout. You can find our defender analysis and rankings here!
xFpts modeling for midfielders
As in previous posts, I've plotted each eligible midfielders average weekly xFpts against their average actual fantasy points to identify players who are over- and under-performing expectations (Fig 1).
For orientation, players scoring above the solid black line are over-performing expectations and could be due regression, whereas those below the blue line are due improved performances. Immediately standing out from this visualization, are the two dramatic Manchester City stars, Riyadh Mahrez and Kevin De Bruyne, who not only are outperforming their xFpts by a considerable margin, but also all their midfield colleagues by a substantial amount. While luck presumably is affecting their results to a degree, both are exceptional players who most likely are just considerably better than xG and xA give them credit for. Kevin De Bruyne, in particular, is a wizard on the pitch which isn't what these expectation statistics are tuned to capture.
Bruno Fernandes, a third Mancunian, also scores exceptionally well. While I do believe he is a very talented player, with only 5 Premier League starts under his belt, it remains to be seen whether his standout performances are more attributable to sampling noise or true ability. Either way, his results thus far make him a top player even if his actual fantasy points start to level off and approach his xFpts.
Comparing your potential starting midfielders
Again I've compiled a plot of player ranges for your expected potential, comparing pleasure (Fig 2) .
Finally, the top 25 ranking, by average xFpts in midfielders. Major takeaways:
Ross Barkley is maddeningly inconsistent but is the only player who manages to reach the heights of Riyadh Mahrez and Kevin De Bruyne, the standout midfielders.
While it remains to be seen the extent he plays, Paul Pogba has been one of the most consistent performers across all positions with a standard deviation of just 2.9 xFpts. This stands in stark contrast to how variable his actual fantasy output has been (st. dev. actual fantasy points = 7.1), but points to an impressive consistency in expected chance production that bodes very well for future performances.
Tom Cleverly might provide an undervalued boost to teams looking for consistent performers in the stretch-run. Although his low total game count should spark some caution, he slots in at an impressive 19th place overall and could be a smart depth pick-up, especially considering his role on a relegation-struggling team with everything left to play for.
Below you can find a link to download the full table with our xFpt statistics for all 130 midfielders. All code and data can be found on our github. xG and xA data pulled from http://www.fbref.com and fantrax statistics from fantrax.com.
NOTE: Data is only included through week 29 of the 2019/2020 season. For up-to-date ranks, please refer to our xFpts Ranking page.
Don't hesitate to get in touch with comments or questions!