Analysing the Fantrax Top 12 Players
In which I apologise for not having a huge amount to write about that’s not covered by the rest of the community at the moment, but rest assured I’ve missed you all… So here’s a long-form post!
August 27th 2020 was a big day in the FantraxGJL household. Between posts about Jack Grealish maybe being quite good if only nasty defenders would stop kicking him so much and why you might want to be a little cautious on Aubameyang as a draft choice (just one year too early, eh?), something pretty monumental happened.
And it wasn’t this Tweet about Spurs fullbacks (the 2 likes particularly reflective of how relevant both Doherty and Aurier would go on to be last season):
Instead, we welcomed a new tiny human into our household. For about five months, this combined with a Covid lockdown actually ended up providing a whole bunch more time at home and meant football was available almost non-stop. During this prolific spell, you all subscribed and I’m incredibly grateful for the support that you’ve given as it’s definitely that social side that has made this whole thing so rewarding.
It may be a little while until I’m as prolific as I was previously, as I’m busy training him up to be the key pass machine that earns him that first pick in the 2038 draft, but I am going to aim to write some sporadic content over the remainder of the season. Rather than trying to keep up with weekly rankings etc. this season and free agency tips, I will probably do some standalone pieces as inspiration hits. If there are topics that you’d like me to write about, please feel free to suggest here or on Twitter.
For this first topic, I thought what might be an interesting way to start might be a look at the current top 12 players and to look at whether we should’ve seen their great start coming and whether we should trust them over the rest of the season (RoS). I consider this piece to something of a companion piece to the excellent work by the Overthinking Football guys (and I will liberally reference both their WAR and xFpts work throughout). If you don’t subscribe to them already, you should!
The Top 12
Right then. Lets get on with it. Why top 12, you might ask? Well not only is that one of the most common league sizes, but it currently covers a particularly interesting set of players. The majority of these players are actually relatively consistently ranked high. And yet, only 4 of them were definite consensus first round ADP players back in the Summer (with Raphinha just on the edge). I’ve also chosen to use the raw metrics of Total Points, rather than adjusting for Points per Start. As such, the likes of Ben Chilwell might feel hard done by here, but this keeps the article simpler to write and consume.
Number 1: Mohammed Salah (ADP: 3.82)
Mohamed Salah has 278.5 points. The player we’ll talk about next in this list has 199.25. In the most recent edition of the Wins Above Replacement model, Mo Salah was already worth almost 2 wins more than the average forward. This is not just good, this is up there with the best Fantrax starts to a season anyone that drafted Salah could have asked for.
Should we have seen it coming? Absolutely. I don’t think I consistently saw anyone really doubting Salah in the pre-season anyway. We’ll talk a bit about concerns in a moment, but I think his ADP is more reflective of the projections that drafters had for the players that ended up with a higher ADP than him, rather than specifically anything relating to Mo.
Is is sustainable? Yes. But… There is the African Cup of Nations tournament in January, and combined with the busy festive schedule, this is not only a significant number of games that Salah could miss in January, it’s also a lot of travel and minutes likely added to his fatigue.
So what do I do with Salah if he’s on my team? I don’t really think there’s much question. You sulk throughout January. You pray for no injury. And you hold the biggest difference maker in Fantrax so far this season. Just make sure you’ve got a way to cope whilst he’s on the bench for a few weeks.
Number 2: Trent Alexander-Arnold (ADP: 11.15)
In the 2019-20 season, Trent performed so well that he entered the next season’s draft with an ADP around 5th place, despite being a defender (a position typically under-rated in drafts). He scored 521 points that season. If he was to continue on his current pace this season, he would finish the year with 750 points, assuming the same number of games played as he did in that year.
Should we have seen it coming? A higher first round valuation? Yes, we probably should. A pace that looks set to break all defender records? It should’ve been seen as in his range of outcomes, sure, given he set the last record. But it would’ve taken nerves of steel to take Trent 2 overall in any draft league. He was good last year, but not pick 2 good, the price in his ADP baked in the possibility that maybe 2019 was the outlier. Think that’s been pretty clearly proved wrong now!
Is it sustainable? Almost 20 points a game feels unsustainable. But staying as a round 1 value player, playing every single game in one of the top 3 attacking teams in the league seems the most likely outcome. AfCoN could impact Trent too, in that he’ll have a different supporting cast around him, but equally more responsibility = more opportunity. For a man that is already set piece taker, key player in the attacking build up and other than Salah, probably the key cog in this Liverpool machine, why would he not still be a top 5 player?
What do I do with Trent if he’s on my team? Set and forget. There’s no clear handcuff player to Trent, as Liverpool have used multiple different options in the few games he’s missed, so I wouldn’t chase one for any games that he misses.
Number 3: Joao Cancelo (ADP 29.26)
Now we start getting into interesting territory. Manchester City are consistently gold for Fantrax. And frustratingly, Pep’s managerial ability to refresh their style can lead to huge swings in player value for City assets. Yet Joao Cancelo emerged last season as a key player in both defence and attack, and one of the players most resistant to rotation. He’s started out in a similar vein, with his performances so far putting him on pace to be yet another player with potential to beat Trent’s already obscene 520 point haul. Again, like Trent, he’s generating excellent points as a creator, with a number of assists and a steady stream of Key Passes. He’s yet to hit the net himself, but he is returning every week value as probably City’s most consistent player so far this season.
Should we have seen it coming? This one is tougher to call, frankly. He does have a full season of high quality production (though admittedly only 27 starts) and Pep shifted the team style last season in a way which really favoured Cancelo. And yet, would anyone have been totally surprised if Pep tinkered again to keep his competitive advantage and Cancelo either returned to a more traditional full back role, or even found himself rotated? In reality, it was probably a combination of that risk, plus a general lower valuation of defensive players that led to his low ADP.
Is it sustainable? Some elements of his performances are clearly sustainable. In mean xFpts, he’s 7th on the season (actually slightly underperforming his tally of 16.25). Some eagle-eyed readers may also have noticed that Man City are quite good, and they provide a good platform for him to continue getting Clean Sheet bonuses and not losing too many points to Goals Conceded. Do I think he finishes the remaining gameweeks as a top-5 player? Probably not. But it’s not really a knock on Cancelo, as much as a bet on other players.
What do I do with Cancelo if he’s on my team? This one is interesting. There is absolutely no incentive to sell Cancelo. Except… There are a number of premium names who have yet to really hit the ground running, or options with similar outputs but potential higher ceilings that I would continue swapping Cancelo for if anyone is buying him as a top 3 player kind of value (a number of them even on his own team). But he’s certainly not a “must-cash-in” player by any means. I imagine a lot of league-winning teams this season will have Cancelo as a locked-in starter in the heart of their defence.
Number 4: Michail Antonio (ADP 43.12)
In August and September, barring that red card performance against Southampton, Michail Antonio looked to all the world like a first round player and a league winner. If we were to ignore that game (which we shouldn’t, really, given he played 88 minutes before the sending off), he wasn’t far off a 30 point average. Since then, its been a little more muted. So how do we reconcile the two sides of Michail Antonio?
Should we have seen it coming? Lets start with the fact that West Ham have been pretty good under David Moyes. And Antonio has been a fairly big part of that. He took a while to shake off awkward characterisations that seemed to linger of being a right-back played out of position. Somehow not a proper Premier League striker. And yet, his record is pretty excellent really. The only significant knock that could be levelled against Antonio since his swap to being a striker full time was that he struggled to stay on the pitch enough. He averages about 22 starts per season.
Is it sustainable? In this case, I’m sorry to say that I don’t think being this high in total points is sustainable for Antonio. His xFpts are solid, but things are heavily weighted towards the 4 goals and 4 assists in his first 3 games. Couple this with the risk that he may not be well suited for being used as an every game striker by West Ham to keep him fit and healthy and he profiles as someone that has probably already delivered on his ADP value in terms of WAR value, but who I would expect to trend towards that 3rd round value over the remainder of the season. A very good player, but not in the top 10 conversation.
What do I do with Antonio if he’s on my team? Assuming you’ve got three strong draft picks ahead of him, hold him. He’s always got the potential for an explosive gameweek winning burst of points in him. However if you need consistency more than explosiveness, wait for the next big game and try grab a more likely top 20 RoS player in exchange.
Number 5: Conor Gallagher (ADP 200.33)
An ADP of 200 and in number 5 overall a third of the way through the season. It’s no small wonder that Conor was ranked the “Best Draft Value Player Winner for 2021/22” by the Fantrax community on Twitter.
Barring a short run in which he lost his set piece roles to Luka Milivojevic, Conor has been incredibly productive in an all-action midfield role for this season’s surprise package Crystal Palace team. And his stats profile is quite nicely rounded.
Should we have seen it coming? Of course. This was totally obvious over a year ago.
Or, more realistically, no. Much as I’d like to claim some incredible insight, I was tipping Conor as a Round 16 dart throw, not a top 5 overall player. Not even Palace’s recruitment department would likely have allowed themselves to dream that this level of impact was possible for the young loanee. For him to be (just) ahead of Jack Grealish and Phil Foden on mean xFpts so far this season is incredible for the young man.
Is it sustainable? Even as someone who is a fully bought in member of the Gallagher fan club, this level of production is almost definitely not what to expect for the rest of the season. He’s got it all in the locker, but he’s 21 and it wouldn’t be unlikely to see him move back towards the pack a little as the fixture schedule gets busier and as more fatigue gets into the legs. But this isn’t intended as a pessimistic outlook. You paid practically nothing for Conor, and even if you adjusted down for xFpts, he’s performing as the 14th overall player.
What do I do with Gallagher if he’s on my team? You could try to cash-in. It’s probably the sensible thing to do, in fact. Three months ago, a trade offer to send Conor Gallagher in exchange for Kevin de Bruyne would be laughed out the room. And yet… Maybe not this year. That said, Conor has been remarkably fun to watch this year and I’m all about having players I like to watch on my team, so Conor will be staying firmly on my roster this season.
Number 6: Jarrod Bowen (ADP 86.68)
I was all in on Jarrod Bowen going into last season’s draft. To say that that faith (and round 6 pick) wasn’t fully rewarded would be both correct, and an understatement. To the eye, he was playing well. But the points just were not following. Fast forward one year and the draft had soured on Bowen pretty significantly. He was now a 7th round or beyond name. And yet he’s out the gates far quicker for West Ham this year, starting every game at a 13.3 PPG rate.
Should we have seen it coming? Top 10 output? Absolutely not. If you did, you’re either Nostradamus, a die-hard West Ham fan, or one of Jarrod’s family. But it was probably reasonable to expect that he could outperform last year, so good drafting if you took him.
Is it sustainable? Jarrod’s average xFpts value this season is 13.92. So that’s actually slightly higher than the raw points total. And his actual footballing stats show a respectable increase in his xG+xA per 90 figures (0.51 this season versus 0.38 last). So yes, in a lot of ways, this is probably a sustainable output level for Jarrod. It is important to note, though, that this rate of scoring would have him around 20th in xFpts per game. So his 6 overall position is probably not sustainable.
What do I do with Bowen if he’s on my team? Keep rolling him out. The midfield positions are probably the toughest this season, and Jarrod is in at 8th on Wins Above Replacement in the model. It looks to all the world like you’ve picked a top 20 player, with something around the 85th pick in the draft. Add to that that an every-week starter in midfield at this output level isn’t easy to find, and it won’t be easy to trade up with Bowen to get to a player the level above. Be happy, enjoy your win!
Number 7: Raphinha (ADP 13.68)
Leeds have started the season with a little less panache than they started the last. Sorry Leeds fans. But the positive is that, despite that, Raphinha looks every bit the star he did last year. Despite a punishing International football schedule, plus some quarantining, and a couple of niggling injuries, he’s played 10 games at an incredible 15.8 PPG clip. He’s got 5 goals in that spell and, quite remarkably, no assists, leading to a regular feature in one of the Draft Community’s regular Twitter features:
Should we have seen it coming? It looks an awful lot like last year, so yes, we probably should. And arguably did, as he’s well within the range of outcomes for the ADP he was taken at.
Is it sustainable? The heroics seem to keep coming on a weekly basis, and he’s got a real ability to get a fan off their seat. I’m one of the lucky ones to have drafted him, and I can’t see any on-the-field reason why he can’t keep this up. That said, there is a durability worry as he’s played a lot of games and racked up a lot of miles travelling with Brazil. But honestly, I’m nit-picking here. You could equally make the case for why the return of Patrick Bamford and any associated upturn in Leeds fortunes might further push his output up.
What do I do with Raphinha if he’s on my team? You keep rolling it out. He’s a player who is playing probably slightly above his ADP, but not hugely. A good example of pre-season evaluation really!
Number 8: Bruno Fernandes (ADP 1.43)
Remember back in the Summer when all the talk was which of Bruno Fernandes and Kevin de Bruyne deserved the top spot in the draft? There are more capable people than me who can analyse Manchester United’s misfortunes, but (whisper it) Bruno has probably actually been alright from a Fantrax perspective…
The Liverpool, Manchester City and Watford games were bad. There’s no sugar coating that. But how much of that should be attributed to the more general rot that was affecting the team can’t really be quantified. But over the rest of the season, it’s been pretty decent. The goals tally is down a fair bit, and he did miss a penalty, but he’s running at a decent 13 PPG tally.
Should we have seen it coming? For those that were Bruno detractors in the summer, you know what’s coming here.
There were quite a lot of penalties last year, weren’t there… And many smart analytics-type people have been down on Ole for a long time. So maybe we should’ve. But… He’s not been that bad.
Is it sustainable? For the first time in this article, this question might be best considered in reverse. Can he get back to his ADP value? The answer is probably yes. Am I confident that he will? No. He’s in at 24th on mean xFpts, though again skewed by a number of very low data points. But the biggest factor here is going to be what the new manager (seemingly Ralf Rangnick) looks to do with Bruno and the rest of the talent at Manchester United. But don’t let short term memory cloud the fact that there are elite fantasy producers at Manchester United, and Bruno is one of them.
What do I do with Bruno if he’s on my team? Try to hold tight and resist the barrage of buy low trade offers from the vultures that will be circling the United carcass. He may not recapture that 1st overall value. After all, there’s another Portuguese Elephant in the dressing room that wasn’t there for most of draft season that might steal some of the gloss from Bruno, and he may end up rotating more than he did last year. But he’s still a very good footballer.
Number 9: Andros Townsend (ADP 109.51)
Andros Townsend does not believe in xG. I don’t know this to be true. But from watching him, I do pretty much know that to be true. He and Ruben Neves must hate stats Twitter and the analytics department in their respective clubs. Yet Andros Townsend has seemingly made a career out of being able to get a few of those long range pot-shots into the top corner. And I do, begrudgingly, respect that.
But that’s not really the whole picture at Everton, where he’s had probably his best ever Fantrax season, chipping in with a whole bunch of good attacking metrics and solid ghost point output.
Is it sustainable? Really hard to say. Everton aren’t in the best run of form at the moment, but they’ve also been forced through a pretty rough injury crisis. They’ve not had Calvert-Lewin for the majority of the season. Richarlison is probably second only to Pedri in number of matches played over the last 12 months, and even fellow surprise package Demarai Gray is now injured. This does imply that he can probably hold his spot pretty easily, but it also likely caps his ceiling too. And he’s down at 21 overall on xFpts as it is.
What do I do with Townsend if he’s on my team? Well you probably keep rolling him out. He hasn’t really got the name brand value to make him a great trade candidate. That said, if you can find a way to upgrade from the (very respectable) output that Andros is giving you, I probably would, though it’s hard to know for sure who to be targeting if you were to trade him away, particularly if you needed a midfielder back. Maybe he’d help in a 2 for 1 sort of deal, but certainly no need to give him away on the cheap. He’s #9 overall!
Number 10: Sadio Mane (ADP 6.58)
Round 1 ADP, Round 1 output. Nothing to see here.
Frankly I don’t have anything much to say.
Like Salah before him, the only risk is number of fixtures and AfCoN. Otherwise, he’s giving you exactly what he’s given us ever since he moved to Liverpool. Round 1 quality output in a great attacking team, with high availability. I won’t waste your time any further…
Number 11: Reece James (ADP 50.98)
This one is interesting, though. He’s at Number 11 overall, but he’s managed 90 minutes only 5 times. The average score in those 5 games is a staggering 29.85. There are 26 Premier League games remaining and if Reece played each of those at this current scoring rate, those games alone would be worth 776 points. Although it has been stop / start, this could be something very special from Reece this year.
Should we have seen it coming? 29.85 points per 90? No. That’s inhuman. But being the starting RWB and performing well? Yeah, we probably should. Tuchel did flirt with Hudson-Odoi there, and occasionally tried Reece at RCB, but it really clicked for Chelsea with him at RWB and he put some great performances in in the Champions League in particular there. He probably should’ve been a round or 2 higher in his ADP.
Is it sustainable? At that average, almost definitely not. xFpts has him down at more mortal level of 23.51 points. But, to be clear, that is still the current #1 xFpts score in the league. By almost 4 points. If he stays healthy, Reece’s role is absolutely golden for Fantrax. Chelsea’s defence do not concede, he takes set piece duties and he’s in the box more than most forwards. I would imagine he still finishes below Salah, but after that, everyone else is well within his cross-hairs.
What do I do with Reece if he’s on my team? Set. And. Forget. And send him a nice message on Instagram to thank him when you win your league.
Number 12: Allan Saint Maximin (ADP 46.96)
Newcastle are almost always box-office in some way. Their fans have been through a lot. So it seems the football gods regularly like to take it upon themselves to give a little something back to provide entertainment to those beleaguered fans. This French maestro is the latest of the set.
His draft ADP was depressed compared to the previous year. A year in which he struggled to stay healthy and a year in which his points were down when he was on the pitch. He’s had a very solid season this time around, having featured in every game and performing pretty well. There have been some bust weeks in there, but generally most good things in the current Newcastle side involve Saint-Maximin, and it’s come with a 12.5 FP/G output.
Should we have seen it coming? Given the role injury and rumours of a tense relationship with management at times last season played in his output and availability, we probably should’ve assumed there’d be an upturn. His ADP is probably a round or so too late, and certainly when you look at some of the names drafted above him, we probably should’ve known better. But I’m not sure this was that bad a valuation by the draft community.
Is it sustainable? The level of output actually does feel pretty sustainable. In fact, it’s entirely possible a combination of a more progressive manager and January additions mean that he’s well set to outperform this first 12 games in the second half. But at the same time, would I back him to stay as a top 12 player rest of season? Not really. But that’s more to do with other players who I think will break the top 12, rather than him regressing or performing badly.
What do I do with ASM if he’s on my team? Unlike Townsend, ASM has bankable name value. If it’s possible to somehow convince a manager with Jack Grealish that they’d rather have the reliability of ASM’s every-week guaranteed start, I’d do that in a heartbeat. But equally, he is fun to watch and he could soon see a proper supporting cast. He’ll likely be top 24 overall at the end of the season, so the draft value is clearly there for anyone that took him.
That’s it. I hope you enjoy. Let me know on Twitter or in the comments if you agree / disagree with me on these 12 stars. Next time up, I’m considering diving in on the players who had 1st / 2nd round ADPs who have not lived up to them and seeing whether I can work out why.