The Overthinking Roundup: GW37
In which the title contenders remain perfect (again), relegation is all but decided and the Europa League race tightens.
Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 37. We are still very much in the midst of the Double Gameweek, so we’ll talk a little more about some of these teams in the Preview, but we’re keen to still Roundup as usual one last time.
So, for the 37th time, this is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances. We’ll try to cover Transactions as one last big Preview later in the week, so that we can cover the teams on Doubles.
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Fulham 0 - 4 Manchester City
With the Double Gameweek, all eyes were on Pep Guardiola’s team-sheet to see who he picked to play. Managers who rostered Julian Alvarez (12), Jeremy Doku (1.5) and Kyle Walker (6) all left disappointed, with potential difference makers benched. Each still has every chance to start the next game, so some of you may have chosen to leave them in your lineups. That gamble would have paid off for Alvarez and Walker, with Alvarez picking up a late penalty and Walker benefitting from his 22nd minute substitution to pick up a Clean Sheet. Sometimes it’s just a silly game needing all the luck. Your luck was particularly out if you decided to start Nathan Ake (1.25) who must be at least a doubt for the Tottenham game after picking up a foot injury. Some things, though, are predictable. And City winning this sort of game is one of them. Erling Haaland (1) only getting a single point is probably not what we’d have imagined, but sometimes, when you’re a team of superstars, your converted centre-back playing left-back to pop up with 2 Goals. Josko Gvardiol (30) made the first goal in particular look so easy, you’d have been forgiven for thinking it must’ve been one of the forwards at a glance. Bernardo Silva (26.5) also had a huge game, even if there was an element of fortune about an Assist that ricocheted from his back after a hard tackle on the edge of the box. We’ve no doubt got another Summer of rumoured moves away from City incoming. It happens every year. But by this time of the season, he’s usually starting and driving the team to silverware.
To say Fulham did nothing in this game might be over-stating their attacking play. They were totally smothered. They ended it with just a single Shot and 0.12 xG. You’re not going to take many points from a Game playing like that. It was probably not the home-closer that the fans were hoping for but we’d imagine there’s still a fair amount of positivity out of this season for them. They close the campaign away at Luton which represents a decent bounce-back spot, with Luton needing to overcome a massive Goal Difference swing over Nottingham Forest to have even an outside shot at staying in the League.
Bournemouth 1 - 2 Brentford
This was absolutely not a classic. And then, all of a sudden, it was. The first half was dull, stakes-free football. Most of the second-half was too. Then it exploded to life with Bryan Mbeumo (22.5) landing a first punch in the 86th minute. That Goal was created by Yoanne Wissa (21.5) and Mbeumo would return the favour shortly after in added time. Those two Goals were punctuated by a Dominic Solanke (14.5) equaliser in the 89th minute, created from a cross by Marcos Senesi (16.25). Senesi finished the Game with 3 Key Passes, tying Lewis Cook (13) for Bournemouth’s highest volume creator. If you’d called that beforehand then fair play to you. It was a rare quiet game for the rest of Bournemouth’s attackers, who’ve been fairly consistently in putting up starter level scores. School’s out for Summer.
Brentford also saw Kristoffer Ajer (10.25) benefit from the perfect Fantrax substitution. A defender coming off on the 61st minute at 0-0, with their team going on to concede. A real ‘hang it in the Louvre’ piece of work from Thomas Frank. There were also reliably solid scores from Sergio Reguilon (9.25) and Keane Lewis-Potter (7.5). We’ve said it before but these are two of the more interesting names looking at next season. Brentford close their season hosting Newcastle, who have considerably more to play for than the Bees. It is an Ivan Toney (1) revenge game, though. Toney’s been pretty mediocre the last couple of months, perhaps distracted by thoughts of playing elsewhere. He could do with a statement performance for the shop-window here if Brentford are intending to push for the sorts of fees that were rumoured last Summer.
Everton 1 - 0 Sheffield United
After a few weeks of good finishing, Everton’s safety was secured. Even the looming (and very real) threat of administration wouldn’t drop Everton enough points to fall into the bottom 3 at this point. So naturally they went immediately back to their familiar wasteful selves. Against the historically bad defence, they put up a healthy 2.35 xG but finished with just one Goal. And it would’ve taken something pretty special to miss from Abdoulaye Doucoure (17) with his third effort of the first-half. Doucoure has had a slower second-half of the season after his blistering start but this season is still going to finish as his highest PPS since his Watford days. This season has also been a bounceback for James Tarkowski (20) who is back in the double-figure averages again. He has formed a good partnership with Jarrad Branthwaite (11.25) and the likely departure of the young defender will need to be monitored when projecting Tarkowski’s draft value into 2024/25. Everton close the year heading to the Emirates. Arsenal are an intimidating opponent for any side so you’re probably going to fade most Everton players there. But maybe Sean Dyche has it in him to play spoiler once more.
For Sheffield United, we’ve seen a pretty impressive run down the stretch from Gustavo Hamer (10.5). As Sheffield United saw their Premier League status running away, the shackles seemed to come off for Hamer, who has averaged over 4 Key Passes per Game in his last 5. That sort of floor has kept him relevant no matter how dire everything around him has been. Being totally honest, we’re a little skeptical that there’ll be a queue to keep him in the league, but there’ll be managers who’ve ridden this hot-streak to League wins. He has a final chance to contribute with a visit from Spurs on Sunday.
Newcastle 1 - 1 Brighton
Newcastle opened their Double Gameweek knowing that 2 Wins would go a long way to confirming European Football next season. Brighton, who came into the year with similar aspiration, are not in that conversation anymore. But they were not content to just hand it to Newcastle, either. Brighton’s final 3 Games of the season see them face all of the contenders for 6th / 7th place, making them the King-makers of that particular consolation prize. They couldn’t have started this one better, with Joel Veltman (14) finishing after a corner was helped on by Danny Welbeck (10.5). Newcastle have multiple key defensive absentees, so their recent challenges on set pieces are perhaps understandable. They’re forcing them to play on the back-foot more often than Eddie Howe would like, though. Outside of that set play and another good Welbeck chance created by Julio Enciso (7.5), Newcastle defended fairly well. And they created quite a lot going the other way. It wasn’t a big surprise when Sean Longstaff (17) turned in from close-range. Elliott Anderson (21) was the man to provide the ball, after good combination play with Anthony Gordon (12). Newcastle did think that they might have taken all 3 points late, but the offside flag was rightly raised.
Brighton might consider it something of a let off on balance, though there were a few things for them to be very happy about. First and foremost, this was the best we’ve seen from Julio Enciso since the opening day. He’s probably the most exciting prospect at a club full of them, so losing him all year was certainly not the ideal situation. We don’t know who will be managing Brighton next year but whoever it is they’ll be glad to see him looking sharper by the day. He was a popular streaming pickup this week, but we’re a little hesitant to say he’ll play again in midweek. Brighton have been careful managing players back and have rotated their forwards a lot. But if you did get him from Free Agency, we’d imagine there’s a good chance he’s starting the Manchester United game if he doesn’t play the Chelsea one. It goes without saying that you start him if he does.
Tottenham 2 - 1 Burnley
We quite like stats here at Overthinking Football. Given the game format that brought you here, we imagine you do too. But we don’t ever lose sight of the fact that football is elevated by chaos and narrative. There’s no romance in a game where the best side wins every time. That’s a long-winded way of saying that, deep-down, of course we knew that Burnley were unlikely to hold onto the lead they took when Jacob Bruun Larsen (16.5) struck after 25 minutes following a great bit of play from Sander Berge (11.5). And Spurs were pretty good in this game, as their 2.72 xG and 5 Big Chances from 21 Shots attests to. But for 7 glorious minutes, we could believe. Arijanet Muric (13) continued his streak of remarkable Fantrax scores, despite probably his worst game of the season in real football terms. He got all the credit for his 7 saves and lost nothing for the multiple times he passed the ball straight to Spurs attackers. The Fantrax game doesn’t always make sense. Muric won’t be a target for any Premier League sides this Summer. But, for this glorious run of games, he is outputting Goalkeeper scores to rival the very best we’ve seen. Burnley’s final day visit from Forest doesn’t come with the stakes we’d hoped, but they’ll still have the opportunity to impact the relegation race, even if it’s unlikely.
Spurs did the same thing we’ve got pretty used to from them in the second-half of the season: they created lots of chances from the attackers. Then, with those chances not converted, the defenders get on with it and do the business instead. It’s the time of year where people expend a lot of energy arguing about which team made the ‘Signing of the Season’. Spurs fans caught up in that will no doubt be extolling the virtues of Micky van de Ven (13.5). Without the Dutchman at the heart of defence, things just don’t work as well for Ange Postecoglou and I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that he’s as influential as anyone else in this squad in (almost definitely) getting them European football next season. We’re still a little more mixed on whether Brennan Johnson (16.5) was the best way to spend £50m but what cannot be denied is that it’s very difficult to stop him getting chances. If he can turn more of them into Goals next season, the fee will certainly start to look more understandable. Technically Spurs are still at risk of dropping out of Europa League football, with a tough game against City next and both Chelsea and Newcastle able to catch them on points. But they get Sheffield United on the final day. If they don’t take at least a point there, they don’t deserve to be in European football.
West Ham 3 - 1 Luton
Speaking of early, doomed hope: Luton Town. As we mentioned already elsewhere, Luton are not relegated yet. They just need to win against Fulham and for Burnley to beat Forest with an associated 12 Goal swing. It’s not that strange things have never happened but… They’re also going to have to do it potentially without the services of Ross Barkley (1), so often the catalyst for them this season, who picked up an injury here. The dream start when Albert Sambi Lokonga (14.5) converted a trademark Alfie Doughty (14.5) cross after just 6 minutes. But that was very much the peak as far as Luton were concerned. In the remaining 85+ minutes, Luton were only able to create 0.05 xG. West Ham put up 3.17. Luton, we’ve enjoyed you a lot, but that’s very rarely going to be good enough. Unsurprisingly, that meant no other Luton players with starter level scores. They did get some good news in Chiedozie Ogbene (2.5) getting 15 minutes off the bench. But it’s too little too late in terms of Premier League survival.
David Moyes signs off as West Ham manager (again) when he takes his side to face City on the final day. But this was his home swansong. It was good. We’ve not really hidden the fact that we quite like David Moyes and think he’s done a broadly good job at West Ham. Yes, there’ve been some rough patches (and this season has certainly been a step down) but it’s hard to look at what he’s done and not say that it’s been a positive, given both times he was hired West Ham were hovering perilously close to the bottom. We also love the way his teams push their points reliably to Fantrax-relevant names. Tomas Soucek (22.5) finished as the top points scorer today, though Mohammed Kudus (17) was close to adding a Goal to his Assist and was probably the player that caught the eye the most on the day. He’s had a really solid debut campaign. We’re intrigued what a new manager does with this West Ham squad but in Kudus, they have a really intriguing building block. Getting him closer to the opposition box more often is probably priority #1. He looks set to finish the year around the 70th percentile in the ‘Touches in opposition box’ category. With his quick feet and willingness to shoot, we’re intrigued if West Ham can scale that up.
Wolves 1 - 3 Crystal Palace
The wild Bayern Munich rumour mill casts a wide net. And this week it was Oliver Glasner’s turn to be linked with the expected vacancy (though a U-turn regarding Thomas Tuchel is yet to be ruled out). Palace reportedly told Bayern that it would cost a lot of money to extract their new man, showing how highly thought of he is in South London. And he’s clearly showing that when he’s got the pieces to play, he can set them up effectively. Most of you would’ve been able to guess the stat distributions as soon as I showed you the team-sheets here. Palace win: check. Michael Olise (24.5), Eberechi Eze (18.5) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (18.5) hauls: check. Solid supporting performances and scores from Adam Wharton (11.5), Daniel Munoz (8.25) and Joachim Andersen (10): check, check and check. They’re a good side when everyone’s available. The entire Summer is going to be about holding off the vultures and replacing anyone that does exit the building. That’s going to be significantly easier said than done when it comes to the crown jewels, though. They face Villa on the closing day. At the time of writing, Villa remain a point from Champions League qualification, but that picture could change after Spurs face Manchester City.
It was a pretty muted day for Wolves. It’s been a pretty muted last couple of months, truthfully. They’ve dropped considerably in the underlying expected metrics but that’s perhaps to be expected given their absences. They have a similar, if slightly lesser, challenge to Palace. Pedro Neto will attract suitors this transfer window. It’s also not unthinkable that Matheus Cunha (15) and Hwang Hee-Chan (0.5) might be the subject of some admiring glances. Jose Sa was a late omission here, after falling ill, but is also a keeper who has significant xG overperformance in 2 of his 3 Premier League seasons and could be a target for clubs wanting to upgrade there also. What we do know about Gary O’Neil though is that, somehow (and often confusingly) he has managed to get a song out of whatever strength starting elevens he’s been handed. Wolves finish their season with a trip to Anfield to face a spluttering Liverpool side.
Nottingham Forest 2 - 3 Chelsea
This game was a tale of two Chelsea academy graduates. Callum Hudson-Odoi (21) came into this Game clearly wanting to make a point. He did. That he finished with just a Goal is remarkable, really. He terrorised Chelsea and, outside of the haul he did get, had a shot deflected onto the bar and provided a great cross that Morgan Gibbs-White (20.5) could only head onto the post from close-range. His Goal took Forest into a (not particularly undeserved) second-half lead and his celebration was simultaneously restrained and pointed. Chelsea would have been a better side this year with Hudson-Odoi. Their problem left-wing position, his natural role, is a position he barely got to play there. It’s hard not to be happy to see him thriving at Forest now, though. A run of Games and the confidence associated has him looking a threat every single week.
But we said this was a tale of two graduates. And the other is a name who has missed more Games than he’s played the last two seasons. Reece James (11.5) is Chelsea’s most talented player. He shared the crown with N’golo Kante for years, but in this lineup it feels pretty undisputable, given the level of his impact in both attack and defence. Rushing back from a previous injury to try to make the World Cup squad seems to have cost him two seasons. The hope, after he’s finally undergone surgery, is that he can put that behind him now. Chelsea’s hopes of being a Champions League qualifying side next year would be boosted significantly if he can play. He was on the field for just 10 minutes here and showed he’s still got end-product in abundance. His cross for Nicolas Jackson (13) was perfectly weighted and left the Forest defence standing and watching as their hopes of wrapping up safety on Saturday evaporated. We don’t expect James to play more than a bit-part role through Chelsea’s last two Games. But it was another reminder that we’ve spent most of this season watching a lot of Chelsea’s depth players. Predicting just about anything for this side is going to be very tough until we see them lining up in pre-season.
Manchester United 0 - 1 Arsenal
The Manchester United team sheet for this match looked appalling. Starting Sofyan Amrabat (5.5) to shield Casemiro (8.5), still deputising in defence, and having to turn to Scott McTominay (2.5) and Amad Diallo (6) in the absence of Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes had this looking like a white flag. Arsenal have routinely been beating up sides for fun, so predictably this ended up as just a single Goal win for Arsenal. That puts City within 3 Goals of Arsenal’s Goal Difference, which at one point had looked tough for them to catch. If City put up significant Goal margins in either the Spurs or West Ham fixtures, even a draw in the other wouldn’t necessarily prevent them from winning the title. In many ways, Arsenal will look at this as a missed opportunity. They did have chances but this wasn’t one of their most fluid days in attack. They had 11 Shots (5 on Target) and 1.52 xG, with Leandro Trossard’s (16) Goal representing the lion’s share of that tally (0.64). The Goal came early-ish and it’s fair to say that United never really threatened to equalise.
It’s hard to imagine anyone looked at the United team-sheet and felt compelled to grab many of the available starting players, even in a Double Gameweek. With Fernandes and Rashford both in training, it seems likely they’ll play a part in the Newcastle Game. Andre Onana (8) was perhaps the man to target, given his likely workload across the 2 Games. He did a decent job with his 5 Saves, with one from Gabriel Martinelli (7) in particular late in the Game preventing his side from going down by 2. United are now significant outsiders in the race to qualify for European football via the League, given their Goal Difference, though still retain a shot at Europa League if they can beat Manchester City in the FA Cup. A very strange year for the red half of Manchester.
Aston Villa 3 - 3 Liverpool
We will try to be the publication that resists making Duran Duran puns. No doubt though, that Jhon Duran (23) was the main story of the day. He punished a Liverpool mistake in the 85th minute, with a long-range finish, then got a touch to a (in all honesty pretty overhit) Moussa Diaby (22) forward pass that looped the ball over Alisson (-2) in the Liverpool net. In doing so, he saved the blushes of his team-mate Emi Martinez (2.25) whose handling error in the 2nd minute had given Liverpool a dream start and earned Villa a deserved point. Villa have had a punishing schedule, unsurprisingly have come away with a tonne of late-season injuries but are almost there in terms of Top-Four qualification. It’s a fantastic achievement from Unai Emery and his side. A point on the Final Day is all they need, regardless of the result when Spurs face City.
For Liverpool this has been a particularly odd last month. Jurgen Klopp shook things up after the United and Palace matches and things feel pretty disjointed at times. Darwin Nunez (2) has his flaws, but we thought we’d all come to the agreement, after a spell of Cody Gakpo (12) to start the year, that Liverpool are better with him in, high-profile misses and all. Perhaps there was just one miss too many for Klopp. Gakpo did get a Goal here, finishing Joe Gomez’s (7.25) slide ball across the face of Goal. He didn’t do much else, though. You get the impression that all involved at Liverpool might just want the season done with. With no competitions left to play for, it has the feel of an extended goodbye and we’ve little doubt most fans will want to say a big thank you to Klopp, but to start moving on to the Slot era at Liverpool Football Club. They got a home farewell on Sunday, with Wolves visiting. Give us Nunez again please Herr Klopp. Just one last time.
That’s it for this week. Look out for the Preview article towards the end of the week.