The Overthinking Roundup: GW35
In which Liverpool fully dropped off, Forest and Burnley take things to the wire and the Golden Boot race tightens.
Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 35. For those following along with the domestic dramas, we’re at the tail end of flu season here and there is light at the end of the tunnel. So Everton fans, I can very much relate to how I imagine you feel this week, with survival secured. And that means we’re back to the normal format.
This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.
As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!
West Ham 2 - 2 Liverpool
If it felt like it was probably over last game, it is definitely over now. The Klopp era of Liverpool football club is (we think) sadly going out on something of a whimper. Arne Slot looks all but set to join in the Summer. And there are plenty of questions about the direction he’ll want to take the side. And there’s (once again) a big question surrounding the Liverpool future of Mo Salah (0) who wasn’t shy in showing his emotions during and after the game. But we’ll leave most of the narrative and forward projection for the Summer and talk about the game. April Liverpool have had a pretty clear playbook most of the time: take lots of shots, run up a good xG tally and typically underperform it. Then allow the opposition a small number of counter-punch opportunities and concede from all of them. And they pretty much did it again here. The big shock was that Klopp rotated the team heavily. That’s going to be questioned, given the result. But really the players on the pitch should’ve been enough. Ryan Gravenberch (11) is hardly a high-end streamer but this game saw him with 3 Shots and 2 Chances Created. This was arguably his biggest “main character energy” moment of the season in the Liverpool midfield and sadly he couldn’t make it count. Similarly Cody Gakpo (10) took 8 (!) Shots on the day without finding the target a single time (4 of them prevented by an opposition player). Some of that is credit to West Ham, some of it is just the natural consequence of playing mostly backups. I imagine that a fair few people might’ve jumped on Liverpool streams for this one and, at best, you got Gravenberch’s 11 points. Most likely less. Liverpool host Spurs next, before a trip to Aston Villa. Regardless of whether there’s anything to play for, we’d hope they can perform enough to allow a suitable send-off for Klopp on the last day of the Season. You don’t have to be a Liverpool fan (or Klopp fan) to appreciate that his side brought good tactical diversity to the top of the table, given their differences to Manchester City. No pressure, Arne.
Speaking of managerial pressure… What was that whole Ruben Amorim business about West Ham? He seems to have flown in, not taken a job and in the process pissed off everyone at Sporting. Strange. Anyway, can you guess what I’m about to say about West Ham? That’s right, they had just 4 players in double-figure points. Two of them were very much the usual suspects in Jarrod Bowen (26.5) and Mohammed Kudus (16.5) and they were joined by goal-scorer Michail Antonio (12.5) and clearance-enjoyer Tomas Soucek (10). As per, West Ham are a low volume, often quite efficient, attack. So this is what they do. As we’ve said many times, it’s easy to think the grass is greener elsewhere. And maybe Portugal does have particularly good grass. But this is another perfectly fine West Ham season, having managed to navigate the loss of Declan Rice (a player many credit with Arsenal being right up there with City in terms of underlying performances this year). They play Chelsea next, who will have played a midweek game beforehand (and with 8th place on the table for the winner). Tactically expect it to look a lot like this.
Fulham 1 - 1 Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace’s season is just a succession of injury reports regarding one or the other of Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise (16). I’m not a Palace fan but feel like I vicariously understand the pain, having to watch and write about them on a weekly basis. The difference in the output on the field when they’re in versus out is staggering. In this game, without Eze, Olise contributed 0.87 xG+xA for Palace (whose team total was 1.01). He was involved in basically everything. Naturally, then, Palace’s Goal came from a long shot from Jeffrey Schlupp (16.5) that had little to do with Olise. Sometimes those are the breaks. But for Fantrax, it doesn’t really matter, given Olise’s output is consistently top tier whenever he’s on the field. This was also another game that might have Adam Wharton (17.5) appreciators purring. He did get the ‘Assist’ for the Goal, alongside 2 other Chances Created. The total xA on those chances was 0.03, so there was definitely a degree of luck involved. But he was also all over the field on defence, collecting 3 Tackles Won, getting 2 Interceptions, winning 2 Aerial Duels and generally just breaking things up when Fulham looked threatening. A player doing this sort of work at his young age (and level of experience) has him looking a steal for Palace. There’s nothing really left to play for for them and if Eze’s knee injury is anything even slightly risky, shutting him down would likely be a good idea. We hope it’s not though, as we’d like to see him getting a chance to run at the United defence next time out.
Just 3 Shots for Rodrigo Muniz (12) in this one. He may be losing it. He did get himself a Goal and 0.71 xG from those 3 Shots, so common sense says that we should let him off. But he should consider himself warned. Anything less than 5 Shots a Game can quickly see us check out of a Fan Club. Talking about Muniz is something we don’t typically need an excuse for. But it’s justified today by how little the rest of the Fulham side did, with the exception of Timothy Castagne (15.25) who, alongside the Assist, added a bunch of defensive Ghost Points to round out a good day. He’s been overshadowed by Antonee Robinson (5.5) in terms of Fantrax points and has been a tough player to stream because he has so much variance in his output. But he’s actually got a fairly healthy 38% Quality Start rate, which puts him ahead of players like Hwang Hee-Chan and Rasmus Hojlund. The issue is that a lot of the other weeks are negative scores!
Manchester United 1 - 1 Burnley
Speaking of Rasmus Hojlund (2), despite scoring last time out, we feel like we’re seeing a bit of a regression from the United striker. He had 64 minutes on the field against Burnley and didn’t get a single Shot. It was the 3rd time in his last 4 Games. We’re admirers of what Hojlund has in the toolbox but we’re not sure United are doing themselves any favours not having an experienced player in that striker room alongside him. His draft price in the Summer will be fascinating. One man whose draft value is rarely in question though is Bruno Fernandes (24.5). I’m not sure if any player has put up consecutive performances with 9 Key Passes before in Fantrax. But its certainly not a common occurrence. 24.5 Points without any goal involvement is why he’s perpetually a Top 3 Fantrax player pretty much regardless of United’s real performance levels. The only other thing of note in this one was that we saw Christian Eriksen (10.5) pull a rare start. He did well in terms of Fantrax points, creating 4 Key Passes, but this was another game where United looked far too lightweight in midfield.
Burnley definitely were second best here. But they also were never truly out of the game. Some of that comes down to Arijanet Muric (18.25) who we tipped once again as a keeper you should just be starting at this point. Burnley expose him plenty and he makes lots of saves. His points average since getting a starting role is ahead of Son Heung-Min, Pascal Gross and Martin Odegaard. And the sample size is only growing. Elsewhere for Burnley another Overthinking Football favourite Wilson Odobert (10.5) had a good game with 2 Shots on Target and 2 Key Passes. We’ve said before that we’re pretty sure he’s going to have offers to stay in the Premier League next year even if Burnley are relegated and he’ll be an interesting name to watch, depending where he is playing. Lyle Foster (6) also came close to a big day, denied probably Burnley’s biggest (non-penalty) chance not long before half-time. It wouldn’t surprise us if he remained at Burnley next year even if they’re relegated and those at Turf Moor presumably would hope he could fire them back to the Premier League. That said, relegation is far from certain and this point keeps them in touching distance of Nottingham Forest, who they face on the final day of the season. Who would’ve thought we could have all eyes on Turf Moor on the last day…
Newcastle 5 - 1 Sheffield United
Seriously Sheffield United, that’s just not cool. We get starts for both Tino Livramento (8.75) and Lewis Hall (3.25) in as good a matchup as possible and you score a (well executed) set-piece goal in under 5 minutes. We’d maybe forgive it if you went on to be competitive. But service from that point on was pretty much as expected as Newcastle romped to a comfortable win. Alexander Isak (30) will take the headlines, as he moved to 19 Premier League Goals. With Erling Haaland currently not starting games (though still scoring), the potential prospect of the Golden Boot will no doubt be on his mind. And he has 4 Games left to try to overhaul Haaland and Cole Palmer, including a trip to Burnley and a visit from Brighton, neither of whom are known for defensive stinginess. We called him an outsider not long ago but he looks increasingly inside at this point. Other than that, it was pretty much as we’re used to from Newcastle on their good days. Anthony Gordon (24.5) was heavily involved, Bruno Guimaraes (22.5) was orchestrating everything and Callum Wilson (13.5) needed just 12 touches of the ball on the day to register his comeback Goal. When it clicks, it clicks. They look in prime position to consolidate a Europa League spot and then focus will shift to keeping the squad together under PSR pressures. There are plenty of things to be optimistic about for Newcastle though, despite the down year.
Sheffield United didn’t really have enough in the squad coming up to ever really compete this year and, probably responsibly, didn’t overextend themselves in the hopes that they could scrape survival. Their mission now will be to keep the core squad together and push back up again. Oh and to try to avoid letting in Goal 100 and 101 and becoming holders of an unwanted all-time Premier League record. With 97 conceded and 3 Games remaining, we don’t fancy their odds.
Wolves 2 - 1 Luton
We were so in on the Luton survival narrative. But their already stretched squad has been extended well beyond any reasonable breaking point and even with an OK schedule in the next three games, it feels like a gargantuan ask. That said, Luton reliably do score goals. Carlton Morris (20) got this week’s consolation to give us at least the threat of an exciting close. But truthfully, it was the only hit that landed all game. And even previously reliable Luton players like Alfie Doughty (7) and Ross Barkley (6.5) struggle in this set up, with Luton unable to generate enough volume for the attacking output that the duo were consistently getting earlier in the year.
That’s not to say that Wolves were particularly special in this one. But they did plenty to never really look in any danger. Hwang Hee-Chan (11.5) got a goal on his second game back from injury and getting another 90 minutes from him will be a massive positive for them. There are rumours Pedro Neto might be back for at least some of the final games. In their shoes, we’d absolutely hold him out, but football clubs routinely make questionable decisions in these regards. Given Rayan Ait-Nouri (1.25), who has been playing in Neto’s spot, exited with a suspected ankle injury, it may be that that spot just reopened.
Everton 1 - 0 Brentford
Safety confirmed for Everton, short of a shock third points deduction. It’s fair to say that it’s been a long and winding road for them to get there. But without deductions, they’d actually be above Fulham. Their season has been a weird succession of hot and cold streaks and this game was their fourth win in five. It was also another game in which they finished above their xG. You might be wondering if there’s some Space Jam-hijinks going on in Liverpool right about now. Everton won’t complain though. They probably didn’t feel a huge amount of peril going into this one and they handed a start to Bruno Chermiti (7.5) up-front. He was fine but didn’t really offer enough to have us putting an asterisk next to him for 2024/25 drafts. Jordan Pickford (19.75) ended up with the highest score, with his Clean Sheet and 4 Saves no doubt delighting Fantrax managers who put their trust in him. It would be a stretch to say that this was anything particularly special from him, though. Brentford didn’t really get a huge amount chance-wise and he broadly just did what we might expect from a keeper of his experience level.
We’ve talked about waiting for the Ivan Toney (5) and Bryan Mbuemo (0.5) reunion. We got it here. It was… well… not great. It hurt doubly, given we’d tipped both Keane Lewis-Potter (3) and Mikkel Damsgaard (2.5) as streaming options in this game, so we ended up with the worst of all worlds. This may well be Toney’s farewell tour in a Brentford shirt, so we’d imagine he’ll feel motivated to finish strongly. The rest of the side may have less motivation at this point in the year but their schedule is still fairly nice. They host Fulham next before heading to Bournemouth. They should be competitive in both.
Aston Villa 2 - 2 Chelsea
There’s something about Villa Park that this Chelsea side seem to like. Those just watching the box-score would’ve likely assumed that Villa were just comfortably out-boxing the mid-table side when 2-0 up at half-time. Truthfully, it was more like Chelsea being mostly competent, but bloodying their own nose early on tripping into the ring. They ended the day with 71% Possession and 21 Shots (but, crucially for Fantrax, only 5 On-Target). But that doesn’t allow for two VAR interventions and Aston Villa should probably count themselves lucky they took anything from this one on balance of the entire game. Noni Madueke (27) found himself heavily involved, as Villa played a narrow defensive shape. And this was one of Madueke’s best Chelsea games. That said, he won’t be able to take much credit for his Assist, which was a moment of brilliance from Conor Gallagher (14.5). Chelsea get to play Spurs in midweek as part of their Double Gameweek. We’d assume the lineup is likely to look pretty similar, so there’s plenty of room for these Chelsea players to build on these scores. It will be fascinating to see those two sides match up again. Last time, Tottenham’s high-line and press caused Chelsea plenty of problems defensively, but also allowed them to create enough to lead to two Red Cards. If the midweek game can be even half as fun, we’re here for it.
There’s not loads to say about Villa. It was nice to see Morgan Rogers (14.5) continue to look good. It’s been surprising how quickly he jumped into the starting lineup and he’s got real breakout potential into next season. The main stories Villa-wise are injury related, with Youri Tielemans (0) and Emiliano Martinez (3) leaving the field. With plenty still to play for, Villa will hope both injuries aren’t overly serious. They’ve got Olympiakos at home on Thursday before heading to Brighton. It’s a tough calendar. But that’s the price of success. We can’t imagine too many Villa fans are complaining.
Bournemouth 3 - 0 Brighton
The ‘on the beach’ derby was a pretty one-sided affair. We somewhat called Brighton out a few times recently. And they didn’t do much to counter the accusation that they’re not really trying to win football games in this one. The end-result was a pretty good day for anyone starting Bournemouth players. Enes Unal (21.5) was the surprise star, with a Goal and Assist (using a fairly loose definition of Assist, given some Brighton help in the process). It wasn’t a signing we totally understood, but this was a performance that suggests maybe Bournemouth might want to make his move permanent. It was also a good day for Dango Ouattara (18), deputising at left-back. In leagues with multi-position eligibility, he could have had a Clean Sheet on top of his points total. We remain fans of the talent with Ouattara and imagine he’ll be a Sleeper target in the Summer once more, with a full pre-season under his belt. Though we did say Bournemouth didn’t have a lot to play for in the Preview, they are technically still in the mix for European Football. It’s unlikely, especially with a game against Arsenal up next. But it’s not over until it’s over.
If you don’t intend to take the run-in seriously Brighton, we’re not going to take you seriously either. The goodwill from last season is still just about there but this is just not a good team so far in 2024. We hope you sold the assets that still held value when we first tipped it a few weeks ago. Their remaining schedule is Villa, Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester United. Form-wise, it’d be miraculous if they took another point.
Tottenham 2 - 3 Arsenal
What a wild game this was. A few first-half moments swung everything Arsenal’s way, only for Spurs to give it a good go at making the comeback in the second-half. The points distributions are almost as wild as the game itself. For Arsenal, you either scored 15+ like Declan Rice (15), Kai Havertz (25.5) and Bukayo Saka (27) or you scored under 6 points like everyone else. You may spot something that those three names had in common. And the reality is that outside of the Goals, Arsenal were pretty second-best in a lot of senses in this one. Goals matter, though. Saka’s finish in particular, coming shortly after a disallowed Goal for Tottenham and during a VAR check for a potential Spurs penalty, was a fantastic display of composure from the man who embodies this Arsenal team. On balance this was not a vintage day. With Bournemouth and United next up, before a final day trip to Everton, Arsenal remain in contention.
Spurs on the other hand, may feel that their Champions League dreams are slipping away. This result takes it back out of their own hands, with Villa sitting 7 points ahead of them, despite playing 2 Games more. It’ll be hard to take, given they did have more of the ball, take more shots and put up more xG than Arsenal. But everything felt milimetres away from falling right for them, which is partly just luck of the bounce and partly that this Arsenal defence is generally good at limiting the quality of chance you’re going to get. The big concern for Spurs will remain that they seem very vulnerable on set pieces. Yes, Arsenal run very robust pick-plays and it’s questionable how much they should be allowed to do that. But they’ve been doing it all year. If you’ve reached Week 34 and, instead of game-planning for it, you just expect the whistle to start blowing, you deserve what you get. But Spurs did almost bounce-back from it. Cristian Romero (15.5) finished with the highest Fantrax point tally and, frankly, should’ve had more. In the first half, he had a great chance to head Spurs into the lead that hit the post. But overall Spurs, despite having so much more of the play, didn’t hugely trouble the Fantrax point tally either. Only 2 of their 14 Shots found their way on target. Both went in. But never fear if you started Spurs players who didn’t light it up here. They get Chelsea’s somewhat leaky defence in midweek and a chance to set things straight.
Nottingham Forest 0 - 2 Manchester City
With Arsenal holding on to take three points, the pressure should’ve been on City. But City aren’t a normal team. Truthfully, they were well below their best here and Forest had every opportunity to take points. But City did enough without getting out of first gear. Josko Gvardiol (24.75) and a returning from the bench Erling Haaland (14.5) got their two Goals, both courtesy of Kevin De Bruyne (23) passes but the rest of City’s attackers were pretty underwhelming. Jeremy Doku (0) blanked, Jack Grealish (2.5) did little more and Julian Alvarez (4.5) never really got into the game at centre forward. Quality tells, though. With just 4 Games left to go, Arsenal are stuck nervously hoping for a slip. At this time of the year, City rarely oblige. And the return of Haaland to the lineup does no harm whatsoever to City’s odds of a repeat Title.
As we alluded to earlier, Forest now sit in a position where they are just 2 points ahead of Burnley with three Games to go. Getting to head to Sheffield United next is their big hope and they can take some optimism how they played here. Games swing on moments and, even allowing for the fact City would’ve still had two thirds of a game to respond, Chris Wood’s (5) chance to equalise on 38 minutes was about as good as anyone could’ve asked for against City (a 0.70 xG chance). Unmarked, 6 yards from Goal and with the keeper stranded on the other side, it absolutely should have been a Goal. He had another not dissimilar chance just after the half after great work from Anthony Elanga (2.5). When it’s not your day, it’s not your day. We said in our Subscriber Preview that we wouldn’t start anyone from Forest and that mostly played out, although there were respectable scores from Ola Aina (9) and Callum Hudson-Odoi (8). Hudson-Odoi was probably the pick of Forest’s players with 3 Shots and 2 Chances Created but it was still a quiet day. We’d hope to see more life from all of them next week, with three points feeling vital to avoid last day jitters.
Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. We’re in the home stretch now, so we’ll assume that last minute trading is mostly off the cards and that it’s all just about trying to accumulate those last minute wins. So we’re going to focus on Streamer potential and where we think some traps might be hiding.
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