The Overthinking Roundup: GW33
In which the Manchester City machine started to do that thing that they tend do this time of year.
Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 33.
This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.
As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!
Newcastle 4 - 0 Tottenham
Well. Hands up who saw that one coming? Perhaps with memories of the reverse fixture, Newcastle delivered a counter-punching masterclass here that Spurs just had no answer for. In the Preview, we worried who was going to line up at full-back and how they’d deal with the pace of Tottenham’s wingers. That worry wasn’t alleviated when the team sheets came out. Dan Burn (10.75) was restored to left back, which gave them familiarity (but not necessarily mobility) and Jacob Murphy (7) lined up as an emergency right-back. Being honest, right up to kick-off (and a little way beyond), we’d have put our money on Spurs getting a lot of joy in those spaces. They didn’t. An early Brennan Johnson (5) pass to Timo Werner (5.5) hinted that it could go that way. But Werner’s finish left a lot to be desired on the volley. And he would have a few more of them before the day was done. Newcastle, and Alexander Isak (26) in particular, had no such troubles. 6 Shots, 1.5 xG and 2 Goals was a good days work for Isak. But, somehow, even that was over-shadowed by the huge day had by Anthony Gordon (45). His biggest day (of an already pretty big year) will have propelled most of his managers to Fantrax wins this week. Our sympathies to those of you who were already taking the L before the second game of the week had even kicked off. For those wondering how he did it, there are a few factors. One massive part of is is that he took 16 corners. That’s how he got his 2nd Assist of the day. At time of writing we don’t have an expected return date for Kieran Trippier so the role is very much up for grabs. Until today, he’d shared the duty relatively evenly but this is very much a bonus if he can hold the role at even half of this volume in the next few games.
What do you take from this if you’re Spurs? They had lots of the ball, they just didn’t deal with transitions well at all and couldn’t create enough. Easy to diagnose, not so easy to fix. Tottenham are in a good position for finishing 5th given they’ve got a 10 point cushion with just 6 games left to play. But they have a mostly horrible run-in. Trips to Stamford Bridge and Anfield, as well as visits from Arsenal and Manchester City. They’ll have to be far better than this in all of those games. Not a huge amount more to say about it.
Brentford 2 - 0 Sheffield United
Brentford win a game you’re supposed to win challenge: complete. We’ll take it, even if they’ve still failed to give us the Ivan Toney / Bryan Mbeumo (6) duo. This result lifts Brentford pretty much clear of that pesky lingering relegation risk that had just refused to leave them for much of 2024. It wasn’t necessarily vintage, but it was enough. The xG doesn’t look all that impressive but taking into account an Own Goal and multiple disallowed goals, this was a decent day at the office for Thomas Frank’s side. We even got a late sighting of Kevin Schade (8) on his return from injury, popping up with an assist for Frank Onyeka (11). That goal, a combination between 90th minute substitutes is almost the very definition of a Fantrax tree falling in an empty forest. The good news for Brentford was that Sergio Reguilon (21.75) was back to looking competent again and it really showed for Fantrax. A Clean Sheet never hurts but Reguilon’s appeal lies in the Ghost Points he puts up. Today that was headlined by his 3 Key Passes and an assortment of defensive interventions. As we talked about in the Transactions last week, he’s got a fixture list that sets him up to be a major contributor down the stretch. Just no more silly Red Cards please Sergio.
We said nice things about Oliver Arblaster (1) last week. So we’ll take the blame for the Own Goal. Our bad. He did finish with a positive score despite Sheffield United being quite bad and with the negative OG points. He’s still not a recommended pick-up, but this wasn’t a disaster for the young man. There’s really not any good argument for gambling on Sheffield United guys as streamers unless your league is massive or has strange point scoring systems, so we’re not overly interested in dissecting the point tallies at this point. Sure, you could pick up Oli McBurnie (7.5). He gets Burnley next and has a pretty healthy floor, after all. Outside of that, you’re just hoping for a rare Goal or, even rarer, Clean Sheet.
Burnley 1 - 1 Brighton
Talking of commentators curses, enter Arjanet Muric (13.75). Since we discussed the Kosovan’s early performances for Burnley, he’s gone on to post a Fantrax stinker last week and a (pretty horrible, Paul Robinson-esque) Own Goal this week. We’ve had a real positive impact on the relegation scrap sides recently, clearly. Own Goal apart, though, he was actually very good in this game. His 8 Saves were the headline as he posted a very healthy score for the week. But the margins at Premier League level are fine, especially for Goalkeepers on relegation threatened teams. That said, his team-mates could’ve put this out of reach long before this. We’ve had a lot of positive things to say about David Datro Fofana (0) in his short-time at Burnley. He’s definitely improved their attack in ways that we really didn’t expect him to. But his miss before half-time was a huge moment in this game. He’s had a few of them. At his age and experience level, you are mostly just happy to see him getting those opportunities. But for Burnley, they really needed to be hitting the net. Similarly Jacob Bruun Larsen (3) had an early opportunity to punish Brighton’s casual defending but couldn’t turn in a chance at the far-post. Both of those big chances were created by Wilson Odobert (9.5) who remains probably Burnley’s most consistent threat this season. At just 19 years old, his progress through the year will have a lot of clubs on alert this Summer.
Fittingly for this game, Burnley took the lead through a Brighton error. Or a succession of them, really. Carlos Baleba (7) played a risky pass back that Bart Verbruggen (4) could only kick into Josh Brownhill (15). 1-0. They say you don’t get rewards for effort. But Brownhill certainly got his. This was a pretty underwhelming day overall for Brighton and were it not for Muric’s generosity, they’d have deservedly taken 0 points from this one. Their run-in is not particularly pleasant and their dreams of qualifying for Europe again seem to be fading. The real challenge for Brighton will be convincing the key parts of the squad that they should remain at the Amex and push again next year, when they’ll hope injury fortune is kinder.
Manchester City 5 - 1 Luton Town
It’s April. We know that that’s when Manchester City hit peak-machine mode. And so it was here. 37 Shots, 4 Goals from 4.32 xG (plus one Own Goal). Luton had no answer for City here. And who can blame them? We discussed recently that Luton are at the point where they’re recalling players battling relegation in the Championship and having to plug them in to their lineup. Of course they’re not going to beat Manchester City without a huge amount of good fortune. And Pep took the opportunity to rotate his side a little after their mid-week game. Mateo Kovacic (24.5) and Matheus Nunes (8.5) came in as the midfield duo. We’ve seen games this year where that’s led to pretty uninspired performance levels. No danger of that here, though. The attacking midfielders, paced by a fired-up Jeremy Doku (38.5) ran riot. Typically for City, though, they turned down the Clean Sheet. Pep Guardiola might just be doing it on purpose at this point. They look in ominous form once more and have a fairly kind remaining fixture-list. It very much seems to be happening again.
The fun thing about Luton for Fantrax is that in Ross Barkley (12.5) and Alfie Doughty (9) they do have a pair of players that you can set and forget. For a relegation scrap side, that’s a pretty rare bonus. Yes, Barkley would’ve had a completely forgettable day without the Goal. But his Goal and Assist threat is always there. And Doughty managed his score today with only a single corner and no Key Passes. It’s a rare stat-profile for him, but shows that he’s more than a one-trick pony. Luton have 5 Games remaining and some reasonable fixtures in that bunch. Keep both of these names in your starting lineup. You’re unlikely to regret it.
Nottingham Forest 2 - 2 Wolves
We said in the Preview that we’d bet on this game finishing 1-1. So near and yet so far. Forest’s slow attempt to pull away from relegation continues, though they may rue the fact that they couldn’t get more from this one. Jose Sa (22.25) finished top of the points pile for Wolves, who allowed 18 Shots (9 On Target) from Forest on the day. He was one of two difference-makers for Wolves. The other was the returning Matheus Cunha (22) whose two Goals were the perfect way to mark his return to the side. The first, in particular, was very well-taken after a wonderful solo-dribble. Remarkably, Sa was credited with an Assist for this Goal. It was an impressive piece of distribution to get the ball to Cunha but it’s very generous to call it an Assist. His managers will certainly take it, though. His second Goal was easier, with the ball dropping to him on the six-yard line after a scramble from a set-piece, but he reacted well to get it into the net.
As mentioned above, though, it’s Forest who will likely feel aggrieved that they couldn’t take the three points here. Morgan Gibbs-White (15.5) opened the scoring and clearly does not believe in not celebrating against your old club. We suspect he’d also have had a penalty awarded, had the ball not bounced fortuitously to Danilo (24) following a sliding tackle from Matt Doherty (-2.25) in the Wolves box. Worth looking that move up if you can find the game, just for the soap opera of the Wolves midfield deciding to have an argument instead of tracking back when the ball turns over. The other Forest element worth discussing was the start for Gio Reyna (16.5), with Anthony Elanga ruled out after a training ground injury. We were (still are) intrigued by the Reyna move and this was certainly a positive start. He had 3 Shots and 3 Chances Created in this one and it was his corner that Gibbs-White headed home. We’re assuming Elanga will return to the side for the next game, but it’s worth keeping an eye on injury updates there. Forest face Everton next in an important game in the relegation scrap.
Bournemouth 2 - 2 Manchester United
Injuries can be a real downer sometimes. Justin Kluivert (17) headlined Transaction Corner last time out, started and did well here only to pick up an injury and have to be subbed off. In his 75-ish minutes on the field, Kluivert was a shot machine. He had 5 in total. The xG wasn’t fantastic (0.37) and 3 of them were blocked by United players, but the volume was positive. United give up a lot of chances to just about everyone, which was part of the appeal of Kluivert as a stream-start, but this was about as good as we could’ve seen it going volume-wise. In the first-half in particular, this was Bournemouth’s game and we can’t let Marcos Senesi’s (19.75) 2-Assist performance go unmentioned (even if there was an element of good fortune about the first). Dominic Solanke (17.5) set a Bournemouth record for Premier League Goals in a single season in this one and the way he turned the inexperienced Willy Kambwala (5) inside out is no major reflection on the youngster, though he had a tough day out, also caught out of position for a good Ryan Christie (10) chance shortly after. Solanke is in inspired form as he’s entering the peak of his career and it’s hard to not be happy to see him put it all together. His Fantrax draft position in the Summer could be very interesting.
For United, there is basically just one man who deserves most of the focus. And, as it so often is, it’s Bruno Fernandes (24). He had 2 Goals and hit the bar from his 3 Shots on the day and was basically the only reason United were in this game from an attacking perspective. He and Alejandro Garnacho (6) are the two names that have consistently performed for United this season in attack. They need more from just about everyone else. Their Summer activity is going to be incredibly intriguing. Praying Kobbie Mainoo (0.5) will turn into the saviour by himself does not feel like the right move, so presumably some midfield acquisitions are in order. An experienced striker to go alongside Rasmus Hojlund (2) wouldn’t go to waste, either. United are hosting Sheffield United next in the League (with an FA Cup Semi Final against Coventry beforehand), followed by Burnley, so there’s plenty of room for them to build some momentum. But at this point in the season, we know what this side is.
West Ham United 0 - 2 Fulham
We’ve talked about Andreas Pereira (31) and the form he’s showed in 2024 a fair bit when discussing Fulham. And you could see the confidence at work in his opener in this London Derby. A mistake by Konstantinos Mavrapanos (2.5) saw him running onto a loose ball in the West Ham box. The temptation to shoot must’ve been huge but Pereira instead took a cushioned touch towards the penalty spot that took defender and keeper out of the game before finishing into the empty net. It was the sort of nonchalant piece of skill that looks so easy when you watch it back but could go wrong in so many ways. His second came from a fast Fulham break and a square ball from Alex Iwobi (14.5) that presented him a tap-in at the back-post. Truthfully, Fulham should’ve made more of the transition opportunities that West Ham presented them with time and again. They’ve found a really good balance to their attack with Rodrigo Muniz (10.5) up top (just the 5 Shots and one back-heel attempt today), with Pereira, Iwobi and Willian (8.5) behind. West Ham weren’t at their best here but even on their off-days, they don’t very often give up this much xG (3.29). We’ve said it before but during the Summer (and at times early this season) we were pretty down on Fulham. Since the turn of the year (and since Muniz and Iwobi have established themselves in the side), they’ve been a far bit better, loss to Nottingham Forest apart. They face Liverpool next, as Jurgen Klopp’s side looking to shake off a disappointing week.
West Ham were without the services of Jarrod Bowen here and were coming off a tough Thursday night assignment in Germany. So it wasn’t totally surprising that they struggled. Bringing in Danny Ings (3) to play alongside Michail Antonio (2) in theory should give a ruthless edge to an attack. But in reality, it just meant that West Ham struggled in building up and creating chances. The two combined for 4 Shots and 0.37 xG. It wasn’t anywhere near enough to keep pace with a Fulham side in this kind of mood. That said, it wasn’t a total waste of a day for Fantrax. The usual suspects Mo Kudus (14), Lucas Paqueta (10.5) and, in his third good points return in a row, James Ward-Prowse (10.5) all delivered good output. New things are fun and exciting, sure. But West Ham’s first 32 Games showed us pretty much exactly the same shape of Fantrax output as their 33rd. There’s comfort in that too. Palace next. Expect the points distribution to look pretty similar there too.
Liverpool 0 - 1 Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace are 18th in the Premier League when it comes to xG generation and even the impending return of Michael Olise feels unlikely to turn that around at this point. Palace might be able to make things difficult for Liverpool in opening the scoring but we’re not expecting any ‘Crystanbul’ flashbacks here.
Sorry Liverpool fans. Arblaster and Muric might be aggrieved by their jinxes, but they’re at least not potentially season-defining. This result, at the end of a week in which Liverpool had disappointing outings against Manchester United and Atalanta, has the feel of something a little more impactful. Crystal Palace travelled North, took an early lead and played out an effective (if a little fortunate) gameplan to take away the three points. With Eberechi Eze (25.5) and Michael Olise (7) both starting, Palace didn’t necessarily create more chances but they definitely created better ones. Just 8 Shots and 1.98 xG as a result speaks to that. Within 20 minutes, Liverpool could’ve been down 2 Goals. Jean Philippe-Mateta (6) was fortunate to see Virgil Van Dijk (8.5) slipping ahead of him on 18 minutes and nearly took full advantage, releasing a nice finish on target that stayed out by centimetres, thanks to a stretching Andy Robertson (9.75). Mateta would have another chance to extend the lead in the second-half from close-range but found himself denied by Alisson (4.25). He was close to a huge day. But the Palace player we’d choose to highlight was Tyrick Mitchell (23.25). Not only did he have the Assist for Eze’s Goal but he was regularly there to stick out a leg or make a crucial block to prevent Liverpool getting an equaliser - most notably in the 91st minute, preventing Mo Salah (13) from scoring from yards out. He’s a fantastic defender and the wing-back system has allowed him room to get more involved in the attacking side of the game. He’s still not going to be mistaken for an elite attacking full-back but it’s a side of his game that we’re glad to see evolving.
For Liverpool on the attacking side it was just another Premier League game where good chances didn’t convert to Goals. And there’s not a tonne more that you can really say about that. You can point to multiple chances where good shot opportunities have hit the woodwork or been blocked by an outstretched limb and imagine what difference small margins would’ve made. Sadly for Liverpool fans, it happens sometimes. And because Blocked and Off-Target Shots don’t get you points in Fantrax, this ended up being a pretty low-scoring Fantrax points game, considering how much they threw at it. They also lost Conor Bradley (1.25) to an injury at half-time, which meant the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold (6.25) to the side. He didn’t have much opportunity to impact this one, with just 1 Shot and 1 Chance Created, but it is a boost to have him back. And Liverpool will need a boost now. It’s tempting to jump to an assumption that this week has cost them the shot at a farewell Treble for Jurgen Klopp. But nothing is decided yet. The underlying numbers on the last two games were still pretty clearly in their favour. Klopp referred to his team as ‘mentality monsters’ in the past. They need to be that now, as they may need to be pretty much perfect from here on out results-wise. But would it really shock anyone if next time out this team gets 5 Goals from similar attacking stats? They go to Fulham next, before a Merseyside Derby game at Everton. Anything less than 6 points would likely be terminal.
Arsenal 0 - 2 Aston Villa
Having watched Liverpool drop points right before their game, Arsenal would’ve been acutely aware of the importance of doing the business here. And, as we talked about in the Preview, they were facing a Villa side missing Douglas Luiz and having had a day less of recuperation time following their European fixture. And they started fast. Because of the kick-off time, I watched this game in two parts. I watched the first half, slept, then woke up to watch the second. And, with that extended break between halves, I could quite easily have mistaken it for two different games. In the first, Arsenal were comfortably the stronger side and it felt like a matter of time before the deadlock would break. In the second, it was Arsenal who looked tired. They didn’t really create anything and Villa, who had looked content for most of the half to take away a draw, pounced with a quick double-punch from Leon Bailey (13) and Ollie Watkins (14). There’s an argument that most of the interesting moments in this game were the ‘almost’ moments. Watkins hit the post earlier in the game, following what would’ve been a pretty farcical scene involving a deflection from Oleksandr Zinchenko’s (0.5) back. Leando Trossard (8) was denied by Emi Martinez (17) from close range. Youri Tielemans (12.5) managed to put the ball off both the crossbar and post, only to see it bounce back out. And, in the most telling moment of the game, Nicolas Zaniolo (5.5), who was something of a surprise on the team-sheet, darted across the near-post and failed to make contact with a cross. In doing so, he prevented the Arsenal defender from clearing (a covering William Saliba (2.25) was also not awake to the risk) and the ball ran through to Bailey at the far post. And, just like that, Arsenal were behind.
On balance, they didn’t really deserve to lose the tie. But once they were behind, they seemed to lose all shape and somehow following a corner Watkins ended up running through on goal with only Emile Smith Rowe (0) covering him. Sub-optimal given Watkins’s ability and form. He made no mistake. Villa will be delighted with their work here in frustrating Arsenal. Arsenal will be disappointed that they couldn’t make their first-half chances count. But, like with Liverpool, this is a set-back without necessarily being terminal for Arsenal. They’ve got a few tough games to come, but nothing insurmountable. The hardest part for Arsenal will be to maintain momentum with fixtures every three days. City do have the same challenge but Guardiola is more prone to rotation across his side than his protege. How Arteta manages his squad could be a big factor in the end to this season.
Bonus: Chelsea 6 - 0 Everton
A slightly late publish here means we can throw a couple of words in on this game. Cole Palmer (52.5) is in with a good shout of being the Fantrax League MVP, having moved into 2nd in Overall Points with today’s haul. And, after some mild scuffling, has apparently formally been named penalty taker. Good to clear that up. Overall, there was definitely some oddness involved in this game, but it’s hard to analyse anything when you’ve got a player in this kind of form. His quick-footed link-up with Nicolas Jackson (33.5) was too much for Everton to handle in the first half (which made it all the more surprising when the two decided to argue mid-second half). We tend not to read much into these sorts of things long-term though. Something very similar happened to Chelsea on the last day of the 2010/11 season between Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba and once the ball hit the net, that was the last of it. You’d imagine a 6-0 win will clear any lingering bad feeling pretty fast.
Brutal for Everton. Kudos to Dwight McNeill (14) for finding a way to salvage a Fantrax day. That’s about the sum of it.
Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Overthinking Football to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.