The Overthinking Roundup: GW28
In which Cauley Woodrow celebrates the impending 10th anniversary of his maiden Premier League goal. Oh and some title race stuff happened too we guess.
Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 28. Just ten weeks more to go, as we enter the business end of the season.
This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.
As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!
P.S. It was Academy Awards weekend too and for those with any sort of interest, I’m sneaking in my Top 3 for Best Picture here:
Past Lives
Oppenheimer
Asteroid City
No further comment. On with the football.
Manchester United 2 - 0 Everton
This fixture earlier in the season was pretty notable. Everton looked the better side on the day and came out of it conceding three goals. This was not like that at all. The mood of the game was set very early, with James Tarkowski (4) conceding a penalty within 10 minutes, during a sloppy period where neither team looked likely to really build anything significant. The penalty didn’t truly change a lot and it was still fairly hectic for a period. But the story of the first half for Everton was conceding chances to fouls. Just minutes after giving away a free-kick that required Jordan Pickford (8.25) to make a save at full-stretch from Bruno Fernandes (25.5), Ben Godfrey (5.5) brought down Alejandro Garnacho (22.5) following a mazy run from right to left. It was a clumsy challenge and didn’t require any kind of VAR intervention. United decided to toy with Fantrax managers, giving the second penalty to Marcus Rashford (15.5), but he had no issue finding the net. That there was a chance of a third penalty right before half-time, this time Vitalii Mykolenko (-1) being judged to have his hand in an natural position when struck by the ball, was a sign of just how much chaos there was around the Everton box.
And, despite no further goals, United went on to do something that they’ve not been particularly good at this season: they took most of the sting out of the game. Everton did have 12 Shots in the second-half, but they were only worth a total of 0.60 xG. We’re unashamedly pro-this Everton side but they’re in a rough stretch. The decision to start Beto (5) in consecutive games is fine but the reality is that he’s a step down from what Dominic Calvert-Lewin (3) offers, even with Calvert-Lewin in a scoring slump. We have to assume that Everton will be pivoting back to him soon. Everton’s fixtures for the next 5 Games are all games they should expect to be competitive in and a number of them are vital to put distance from relegation. We still believe, but we’d like to see some reward for our faith soon please.
I’ve not got loads to add about United. They were fairly good, Garnacho in particular. Certainly better than they’ve been in a lot of games this year. They don’t play again until March 31st, so there’s also a chance Erik Ten Hag gets back some of his absentees. It still feels unlikely that they can chase down Top 5, but with each three points they pick up it at least remains a possibility.
Bournemouth 2 - 2 Sheffield United
The Bournemouth Double Gameweek was a topic of discussion in the Preview this week. Specifically about just how much it was reasonable to expect from their fringe players. For those hoping for a huge return, seeing Sheffield United take a lead was not the ideal situation. That said, Bournemouth were by far the more productive side from a volume and chance quality perspective and it showed in the overall numbers. 32 Total Shots (12 on Target) meant there were plenty of points to go around. Somewhat frustratingly, some of the biggest days belonged to substitutes. Dango Ouattara (28.5) had a huge impact from the bench, with a Goal and an Assist, providing Enes Unal (15) with his first goal in the Premier League. And Luis Sinisterra (11.5) racked up a massive 4 Key Passes in just 27 minutes of game time. That’s not to say that none of the starters had big days. Ryan Christie (22.5) was at the heart of everything and Marcus Tavernier (12.5) had his usual steady supply of cross-boosted Key Passes, but those who had an eye on Dominic Solanke (8.5) as a dark horse to be the highest scoring player of the week came away disappointed. His early penalty chance was perhaps a sign it was never going to be his day. But with a Penalty Kick Missed on the stat sheet and a disallowed goal for handball after VAR check, his overall total was pretty healthy really and he gets another chance to find a bigger haul when Luton visit. We’ve also got an eye on whether a healthy Ouattara can kick-on from here and repay our pre-season tip of a breakout. No pressure, Dango.
There’s a special shout out to the quirks of the Fantrax scoring system for Jayden Bogle’s (19.75) big day in this one. Credited with an Assist after his shot was saved by Neto (11.5), he also managed to get subbed off just 5 minutes prior to Bournemouth scoring, locking in a Clean Sheet for his personal stat-sheet. If you started him, what on Earth where you thinking? But good job. Otherwise, this was a performance with some attacking spark from Sheffield United, but in order to get their 1.25 xG, they gave up 3.35. That’s not a good trade-off. They can’t win, really. If they try and defend, they inevitably concede anyway. If they try to attack, they inevitably concede more than they score. It’s another extended break for Sheffield United, before a visit from Fulham next.
Wolves 2 - 1 Fulham
Premier League managers need an intervention at this point. It’s getting embarrassing. Repeat after me: ‘if you have to substitute a player with a muscular injury, do not start them again in the next game’. We’ve seen Michael Olise and Luke Shaw treated like this in recent weeks and now Pedro Neto (2) too. It’s another gut-punch for Wolves fans and Fantasy managers and, with all three of their front-line missing now, puts Wolves chances of maintaining their 8th placed position seemingly near impossible. Gary O’Neil has done wonders at Wolves so far but this was a significant mistake. At least the three points provides some silver lining, though how this game ended up so comfortable for Wolves in terms of score-line eludes me.
Fulham were good at basically everything other than putting the ball in the net. Turns out, that is important. Both Rodrigo Muniz (7.5) with 7 Shots and 0.58 xG and Joao Palhinha (1) with 3 Shots and 0.63 xG came individually close to matching Wolves team total—all the more impressive for Palhinha, given he only came onto the field at 70 minutes. Alex Iwobi (28) did buck the trend late with a nice finish, but it was too little too late at that point. In a choice between a side generating quality chances without scoring or a side fluking a goal, we’ll usually opt for the side with the chances, so we come away more positive about Fulham. That said, they’re hosting Spurs next and that’s a fixture where they’ll need to see the ball bounce a little more kindly if they want to get anything.
Wolves actually get some time off from League action, with an FA Cup game next weekend and then the International Break. If they’re very fortunate, Neto will have avoided serious injury and may still play a part in April and May. For now, we can only wait and see.
Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Luton Town
Cauley Woodrow (11) scored his first Premier League goal in 2014. He scored the first of two Fulham goals against Crystal Palace on the last day of the season on that occasion. It wasn’t much of a consolation as Fulham dropped to the Championship. Ten years on, Woodrow was back to haunt the same opponent with his second Premier League goal. Narrative aside, the actual story here is one of a somewhat-wasteful Palace side taking a late sucker-punch to drop further points. The possession was shared pretty evenly in the game, but Palace got themselves 21 Shots for 2.73 xG. Yet they only managed to get 4 of those shots on-target. And that’s despite Luton giving them a helping hand. Alfie Doughty (10) has never been short a Key Pass and today he even offered one to the opposition with a woefully underhit (or miscommunicated) pass towards his own penalty area that let Daniel Munoz (10.25) run freely into the box. From there he was able to look up and square set up Jean-Philippe Mateta (18.5) for his clever back-heel flick. But that was the only goal Palace got, despite Luton playing Mateta through again one on one with the keeper not a lot later. Along with a close-range header in the second half, there’s absolutely a World in which Mateta had a hat-trick today.
We’ve also talked a few times about what role Eberechi Eze (10.5) plays in this system and one of the hopes was that it would let him get more shot volume. He took 6 shots in this one, so we’re seeing that as a positive sign, even if only one found its way between the posts. On another day, this could’ve been a huge ghost point output, so we’re a little more optimistic about Eze’s fit after this one. Palace were wasteful and Luton punished it but you’d probably have to give a cautious thumbs up to how Palace have adapted to the new World under Oliver Glasner. With games against Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth next, we should learn even more about them.
Arsenal 2 - 1 Brentford
Another week, another Yoanne Wissa (12) goal in a London derby. Brentford have somehow managed to continue a ‘next-man up’ system all year when it comes to the striker position. With Ivan Toney (12.5) suspended to open the year, it was Bryan Mbuemo who shouldered the load (with notable help from Wissa). When Mbeumo went out, they saw contribution from Neal Maupay (which continued as Toney returned). In the last few weeks it’s been Wissa’s turn again. It’s the sign of a really well coached team. But, unlike Chelsea, Arsenal have both the confidence and the composure to fight back when they take a blow to the face. And once again it was Kai Havertz (12), extending his purple run of goal-scoring in the number 9 role, who was the late hero for Arsenal (and saving an otherwise blank on the Fantrax stat-sheet).
For this first time in forever, Arsenal were involved in a game that wasn’t a paddling. And Brentford really did give them a game. They had chance volume (17 Shots), but not really the chance quality (1.28 xG), and Brentford themselves were able to get a fairly close xG tally (0.97) with considerably less of the ball (28% possession) and fewer Shots (9). So this wasn’t two heavyweights going blow for blow per-se, but it was a side that set up to frustrate and counter who almost executed that plan to perfection. We don’t really understand Brentford’s results this season, as they look like a side that should be a fair bit higher up the table but at least they’re generally predictable for Fantrax. You start the strikers, you start the set-piece guys and, recently, you start the wing-backs. We like clarity.
For a final note on Arsenal, they’re not playing again until after the International Break when they will face Manchester City. Not to spoil a potential future preview, but all eyes will be on Gabriel Jesus’s rehab and whether he’s recalled for that game. With Havertz’s recent form, it feels like Mikel Arteta has options around managing him back, at least.
Aston Villa 0 - 4 Tottenham
I wrote that I thought this had a chance of being the Game of the Weekend in the Preview. At the end of the first half, I was cursing my ability to jinx even this. In the second, Villa looked every bit a team that had just come back from a night out in Amsterdam. Even allowing for the impact of John McGinn’s (3) red card, they were second to basically everything after the break. Villa use a fairly small squad and how they manage their energy levels around midweek exertions will be a big factor as to whether they can hold onto 4th place through the final ten games. It is a minor reason to worry. Certainly as long as they’re playing difficult Thursday night games, we may have to lower expectations around their likely output in the following matches. But it’s not like there’s really anything specific you can do about it. You’re still going to start Ollie Watkins (4) and co. For Fantrax, it’s probably optimal if Villa fail to progress against Ajax, but there are multiple reasons for Villa to want to progress (not least for co-efficient points that potentially make 5th place a Champions League spot, further cementing their likelihood of Champions League football next season). Anyway, the TLDR for Villa here is: good side, knackered from midweek. Move on, keep pushing for the Champions League.
Spurs had no such fatigue to contend with and it showed in a second half where they were able to run up the possession numbers. They didn’t do tonnes with it in terms of attacking volume (8 Shots in the second half), but compared to a pretty dire first half, it was night and day. James Maddison (13.5) has had a quieter time of it since returning from injury, but was able to open the scoring here and Spurs were pretty comfortable from that point on. Brennan Johnson (17) was a surprise start, with Timo Werner (11) reportedly not considered fully ready to start this game, and he added a second not long after. By the hour mark, Villa were not only tired and losing but they went a man down. Even the most optimistic fan probably knew at that point that it wasn’t their day. This is an important win for Spurs, though slightly dampened by injury to Micky Van de Ven (4.75) who was forced off early into the second half. He’d been good up to that point, using his reading of the game and pace to deal with Villa’s ever-present threat on the counter. Radu Dragusin (1.25) is hardly a name to rush to the waiver wire for, but Spurs will be hoping he can deputise capably if Van de Ven does miss any time. Fantrax managers will be hoping so too, to prop up Destiny Udogie (14.25) and Pedro Porro (14.75) from a defensive numbers standpoint.
West Ham United 2 - 2 Burnley
When we said we’d drop David Datro Fofana (21.5), he took it personally. If you’ve not seen his goal from the weekend, it’s well worth a look. Perhaps fortunate to retain the ball when it comes to him under pressure, he responded by unleashing an absolute rocket from range that probably took the keeper by surprise. It was a rare moment of quality in an otherwise pretty dire first half whose only other notable moment was an Own Goal from West Ham that saw Burnley go in as improbable 2-0 leaders. But don’t let the scoreline fool you into thinking there was excitement. The tally at half-time was 0.07 - 0.10 on the xG front. I was critical of the first half of the Villa and Tottenham game but this was something else. Thankfully the second half was far better. West Ham in particular really turned up the pressure, with 19 Shots in those 45 minutes.
Unsurprisingly, Lucas Paqueta (18.5) and Mo Kudus (12.5) were back at the heart of it, but the man of the moment was Danny Ings (12) who scored once (and had another disallowed by the VAR official) in about ten minutes of total game time. Naturally, it helped no one, given he didn’t start. And the half-time withdrawal of James Ward-Prowse (0.5) meant disappointment for managers relying on his usual set-piece floor. Overall, the story here is mostly that West Ham were just a bit too slow out of the blocks, got a bit unfortunate to find themselves behind and couldn’t dig themselves back out of it. They have to balance a Thursday / Sunday game schedule again this week, though get to play against Villa who have the same thing. Pencil that one in as “not a classic” early and hope we’re wrong.
Brighton 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Brighton Clean Sheet klaxon. And it’s good that something notable happened here. Keeping on a Sunday theme, this wasn’t great. An Own-Goal from Forest was the only real action of the first-half and it didn’t get a whole lot better in the second. Pascal Gross (18.5) returned to the Brighton side and just resumed being the man through which all Brighton points flow this season. But otherwise there’s literally nothing else to talk about. You’ve read the previous two blurbs. You know that I’m going to mention the game against Roma that Brighton played 72 hours prior. So really it’s not all that shocking on their part.
Forest, on the other hand, played a slightly odd lineup. They didn’t start either of Anthony Elanga (2) or Callum Hudson-Odoi (2) and at times appeared to be pushing Morgan Gibbs-White (12.5) ahead of both Chris Wood (3) and Divock Origi (3). It didn’t work. If we were report grading the managers here, Nuno would not score highly. We’ll give the benefit of the doubt and assume that maybe there were some fitness questions around the players benched. But we’d like to see a lot more ambition that this next weekend when they face Luton, which is a game they absolutely cannot afford to lose.
Liverpool 1 - 1 Manchester City
The opening few minutes of this suggested City were out to try to blow Liverpool away before they could take a breath. To suggest at that point to anyone watching that City’s third highest-scoring player would be a Goalkeeper substituted on in the second half would be unthinkable. But City are a strange side. Other than Kevin De Bruyne (16) and Stefan Ortega (10), the points were pretty muted in the final count. It’s not really possible to say which team needed the points more, given the state of the title race right now, but City certainly faded notably in the second half. No excuses on that front, given they had an extra recovery day over Liverpool. But as soon as Liverpool equalised through an Alexis Mac Allister (16) penalty (a temporary new role for him), they were the only team that looked likely to score. As usual, we won’t go too much into the late penalty shout. We’re sure you’ll have your own opinion on it.
When the team-sheets were announced, we’d have leaned Manchester City. The sight of Andrew Robertson (7.25) on the bench, a young centre-back in Jarrell Quansah (3.75) facing Erling Haaland (9.5) and a start-after-injury for Dominic Szoboszlai (4) didn’t scream stability. Add to that Mohammed Salah (3.5) not starting the game and we’d have expected City to be top by the end of Sunday. Jurgen Klopp had other plans. It wasn’t a particularly big statistical day for Liverpool either, mind you. Only 6 Shots ended up on target and outside of goal contributions, Luis Diaz (11.5) was the only starter to hit a particularly notable score. We do think Conor Bradley (6.5) is worth shouting out again, though. His points score wasn’t all that large but he played really well in this one and one moment in particular stands out in the first half, when he was close to connecting with Darwin Nunez (12.5) for a chance to open the scoring. The sample size is growing to the point where we look pretty confident they’ve got another good one off the full-back production line. This title race looks like it’s going to go the distance. We’re here for it.
Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.
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