The Overthinking Roundup: GW27
In which Liverpool, Spurs, West Ham and Villa leave it late, Fulham and Newcastle dominate and the Manchester Derby is predictably one-sided
Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 27.
This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.
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Brentford 2 - 2 Chelsea
There is a famous quote attributed to Maya Angelou that (paraphrased) says ‘when someone shows you repeatedly who they are, believe them’. When you’re writing about football regularly, the problem is it’s not often clear what a team is showing you. Chelsea, mercifully, show us who they are perhaps more than any other side on a weekly basis. They’re a wildly inconsistent, talented, yet often fragile, side. We saw it in the Carabao Cup Final, we saw it against Leeds in midweek and we saw it again here. Two players summed the whole thing up perfectly. In Malo Gusto (15) and Nicolas Jackson (16) Chelsea have two of the more exciting young players in the league (yes, we’re serious). Gusto had an Assist and could easily have had a second. Jackson had a Goal and could have had at least one more. And yet it was Gusto that Brentford bombarded with crosses in the second half to spur their comeback. And Jackson went from involved in everything in the first half (for good and bad) to invisible in the second. In isolation, you might put this specific performance down to fatigue—particularly in central midfield areas. Mauricio Pochettino certainly seems to. But in this he too is showing us who he is, as he once again lined up the same midfield pair who played 210 minutes already in this Gameweek. A Monday Night Football game against Newcastle has typically been a boon for attacking sides recently, but it’s not that long ago that Newcastle beat a ten-man Chelsea team 4-1. You can have very little confidence in Chelsea Clean Sheets or wins, but you’d imagine there’s a chance of attacking returns. So . . . just like every week. Ok Maya, we take your point.
For Brentford, possibly the biggest question is why it took them 45 minutes to realise that getting the ball into the box from wide and crashing the back post was a recipe for success. But once they figured it out, scoring was near-guaranteed. Yoanne Wissa (16) has seen minutes limited with the (re)emergence of Neal Maupay (0), but games like this won’t hurt his case for moving back up the pecking order. His Goal (his second over-head kick attempt of the match, at that) was reward for a performance that Chelsea struggled to cope with for most of the day. The other Brentford notable was Sergio Reguilon (13.75) who finally got a points tally that made sense for what our eyes saw on the pitch. We’ve written about him plenty so far at Brentford but this was maybe his best performance yet. He was a threat in the box from crosses from the right and he was on set-piece deliveries in the game. If you were able to pick him up a few weeks back when we tipped him, you’re probably laughing the rest of the way. The Reguilon comeback story is one of the more improbable storylines of 2023/24, especially given this is the second attempt (the loan move to Manchester United offering us a lot less Fantrax-wise), but it is real. Brentford will have an interesting decision in the Summer as to whether they look to sign him permanently, given Rico Henry has been such an important part of this side for a long time. From what he’s put out on the pitch, we hope they do.
Fulham 3 - 0 Brighton
If you’re bored of us talking about Reguilon, we can only imagine how you feel about our recent Rodrigo Muniz (22.5) coverage. Since the turn of the year, he’s been a man reborn. In some ways, this was his least-head-turning game in his recent run. 2 Shots, 0.14 xG, 2 Chances Created. On another day it’s a forgettable stat-line. But game-state is relevant. His quick-fire combinations with Harry Wilson (26) had Fulham 2-0 up within 30 minutes and from that point Brighton dominated the ball. Fulham have basically run in streaks this season, so there’s some real gambler’s fallacy stuff going on in what I’m about to say, but with a matchup against (fairly broken) Wolves next, they’re not a bad bet to keep rolling.
When looking at the visitors, it’s tough to truly know what to write. When the team-sheets were announced, it looked like the story was going to be “have Brighton rejected the concept of a midfield?”. And in the first-half, there was a touch of that about the game. They were able to keep possession fine but building up to create chances was tough-going. It got better in the second-half, but it’s not like they threw on more midfield. I don’t know at what point it became clear it wasn’t Brighton’s day, but it’s hard to not look at the moment when Evan Ferguson (1) missed a great chance around the hour mark. He’s having a tough time of it this year (which is entirely normal in the development of a still 19 year-old striker) and this was far from his best day. Truthfully though, none of the Brighton side really offered much. With a trip to Rome upcoming, we assume the decision to take Pascal Gross (0) out of the starting line-up was all about prioritising that game. But we doubt Roberto De Zerbi will want to see his side without their key-midfielder again any time soon.
Everton 1 - 3 West Ham
It’s fair to say that Kurt Zouma (19.5) had something of a roller-coaster day. But for his Goalkeeper bailing him out, he would’ve been responsible (if a little unfortunate) for his side going behind after conceding a penalty. Not a whole lot later, West Ham allowed a free-header in the box to go behind. So far, so unfortunate. But when the West Ham comeback started, it was Zouma who was on-hand to put James Ward-Prowse’s (14) corner into the net. We’ve talked a lot recently about West Ham in relation to Lucas Paqueta (5.5) and his on/off splits. Here the comeback only completed after Paqueta left the game and it was one of West Ham’s old-guard Tomas Soucek (14) who proved the real difference. His Goal will (rightly) be the main thing talked about, but he also had a goal-line clearance (a stat category that for some reason is not included in Fantrax default scoring) to really hammer (sorry) home his importance to this side. By the time Edson Alvarez (27) put the cherry-on-the-top for West Ham, we imagine David Moyes was feeling pretty smug. West Ham are 7th in the table and travel to Freiburg in midweek to kick-off the Europa League Knockouts. He’s a good manager.
The story of Everton’s day may as well be the story of their season. Whoever they start up top, they just develop an aversion to kicking the ball into the goal. It’s not that Beto’s (15) penalty was bad (it wasn’t). It’s just that he was trying to score past both Alphonse Areola (28.25) and whatever monkey-paw curse the recent years of Premier League survival have incurred. Beto had an otherwise pretty good day but Everton have seen far too many of these days from forwards this year. The usual reliable suspects did their thing for Everton, with Dwight McNeill (15) and James Garner (14.5) both returning value. We also saw a return to the starting lineup for Amadou Onana (12.5), who put up 4 Key Passes. We love Onana but this is something of a false-stat, given those 4 Key Passes were worth 0.04 xA. We’re not complaining specifically, but on any other day those players would likely make the correct choice not to shoot. Speaking of other-days, Everton are heading to Old Trafford next. If you were betting on a fixture to feature in our Preview later this week, that’d be a safe one to put your money on.
Newcastle United 3 - 0 Wolves
The injury bug is not so much a bad-luck thing for sides at this point as much as a full-blown epidemic. Newcastle have been hit with it dramatically and so, increasingly week-to-week, have Wolves. Coming into the game missing Matheus Cunha and Hwang Hee-Chan already, Wolves saw Jose Sa (1.25) and Pedro Neto (3.5) depart the field at half-time. They were already 2-0 down at the time and any hope of a comeback likely left the field with their Portuguese winger. Newcastle’s defence has been porous of late but Wolves finished the game with Nathan Fraser (2) leading the line. Fraser could well go-on to have a great career but it’s a massive ask to turn to a 19 year-old making just his second substitute league appearance when chasing a two-goal deficit. Post-match interviews have suggested that Neto’s withdrawal was precautionary. Wolves need that to be true. They’ve coped remarkably with a ‘next-man-up’ philosophy this year, rarely having their first choice attackers available at the same time. To lose all three would feel close to a knockout blow to their (admittedly outsider) hopes of finishing in a Europa Conference League spot.
If you’re Joe Willock’s (9) agent, you should have Newcastle’s contract negotiation team on the phone this week. Since December, they were the worst side in the entire-league on xGA. Take a moment to process that. Worse than Sheffield United. With Willock back in the midfield, there was a little more balance and they kept a first Clean Sheet in 9 Premier League games. It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows on Tyneside, though. Kieran Trippier (1.5) was forced off with a calf injury and Eddie Howe will be nervously awaiting the results of tests on that injury this week. Even though he’s looked fatigued in recent weeks, Trippier is a massive part of how this Newcastle side attack, not to mention being a set-piece chance-generating machine. Tino Livramento (16.75) is as good a backup option as you could ask for in terms of right-back output but if Trippier misses time, it’s the destination of those set-piece duties we’re most interested in. It’s a slightly longer wait to find out if Trippier is healthy as Newcastle don’t play until Monday night. Make sure to have a backup plan if Trippier is in your lineups.
Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Liverpool
It’s not a spoiler to say that we are long-time admirers of Darwin Nunez (14). We like any forward that takes that many shots and does it in as chaotic a fashion as the Liverpool forward does. Back in the Summer, we said that the only real downside case around Nunez was that he might be rotated, but that if he started converting his xG into Goals, he’d be undroppable. And boy does he look pretty undroppable at this point. Yes, we appreciate the irony of writing this when talking about a game he didn’t start. But clearly he’ll be back in the lineup as soon as he’s fully healthy. Liverpool need him. It was fairly uninspiring for much of the day without him in real football terms. That said, it wasn’t at all bad for Fantrax. Starting defenders in midfield is a cheat-code any-time there’s a Clean Sheet on the table, so Joe Gomez (16.5) benefitted massively. It was also another strong game for Conor Bradley (19). There’s clearly something in the water in the full-back room at Anfield. Liverpool are off to Prague in midweek and, with Manchester City up on Sunday, we’re incredibly intrigued how Jurgen Klopp manages his squad through this period. As Fantrax managers, be prepared for the chance of rotation.
Forest without Taiwo Awoniyi (1.5). You know how we feel about that. This one takes very little time to talk about really, given Forest were mostly out to frustrate Liverpool (a task they did pretty successfully for most of the game). Holding out a side like Liverpool for 97 minutes would be enough for a point most weeks. It doesn’t do a tonne for your Fantrax value, though, when a goal slips in in the 98th. Nicolas Dominguez (11) was having a decent statistical day in the middle for Forest, though left with a thigh injury. Other than that, it was just Callum Hudson-Odoi (11.5) who offered any Fantrax value for Forest. In this game it was his ability to dribble and avoid tackles that really showed up, with 6 Successful Take-Ons. Most importantly for him, given his injury history, is that this was his 5th straight start. If he stays on the field, he should stay on Fantrax rosters.
Tottenham 3 - 1 Crystal Palace
We were intrigued in the Preview how Eberechi Eze (13.5) fits into Crystal Palace’s new 5 defender formation. On the evidence of this game, the answer is ‘slightly awkwardly’. Some sides use 3 centre-back formations to force the field wider and use aggressive wing-backs to outnumber the opposition in attacking positions. This is very much not what we saw from Palace in this one. Pragmatism seemed the order of the day and it wasn’t all that pretty. It was effective for the first half, limiting Spurs to 2 Shots. It collapsed in the second, allowing 12 shots and 1.65 xG. The biggest issue for Palace is that they had just a single Shot that hit the target. It’s basically impossible to provide good Fantrax performances playing like that. We’ll give some benefit of the doubt to the new manager. It’s never easy to come in mid-way through the year and to try to change a system. We want to see a lot more adventure against Luton though.
Ange Postecoglou’s half-time team-talk must’ve been interesting in this one. He doesn’t strike us as the hair-dryer sort but there’s no way that he could’ve been happy with the first half. He got a response, though. Introducing Brennan Johnson (17) seemed to make all the difference for Spurs—his second assist may have still left plenty to do for Son Heung Min (17), but the first put the ball on a plate. We’ve written a few times about Johnson in relation to his transfer. It’s still not the easiest move to understand. But sometimes having a player with elite-burst makes a difference. And that’s clearly Spurs’ type. Timo Werner (21.5) had probably his best game in a Spurs shirt here and on another day could’ve had more from his 4 Shots. This is set to be a rotation the rest of the way but the bright-side is that the overall unit looks in a good place to be productive even as players swap in and out.
Luton Town 2 - 3 Aston Villa
We’ll start on the Luton side, just so I can send a reminder to myself. Never bench Alfie Doughty (16.5). It’s a move I’ve made a few times this year and it rarely seems the right call. Even here, with Villa taking a two-goal first-half lead, Luton refused to accept they were beaten. And, once again, Doughty was part of that. For him, 3 Key Passes is actually on the low side. But he topped up the points tally when one of those passes found Carlton Morris (20.5) for a goal. Truthfully, Luton only really came alive for a short second-half spell in this one but it was almost enough. They’re now 5 Games without a win in all competitions and will be hoping to turn that around when heading to Crystal Palace next week.
Unfortunately for Luton this week, though, even 2 Goals and what seemed like a late-comeback isn’t enough when Ollie Watkins (26) is in this sort of form. 2 Goals didn’t flatter him on the day (he also hit the woodwork). He’s been an elite Premier League striker this year. He was already good but Unai Emery has elevated him even further, adding a level of consistency to his game. It’s something we’re also seeing from Leon Bailey (19.5), who has always been talented but has all-too-often been unavailable throughout his career. He wasn’t even drafted in a lot of leagues and he sits in the Top-24 Overall Points scorers after this week’s tally. Villa have been one of the feel-good stories of the season and look to keep that going when Spurs come to the Midlands next week. That tie is massive with Champions League qualification in mind and it should be a barn-stormer. Consider us ready.
Burnley 0 - 2 Bournemouth
We will own up to it, we probably jinxed Burnley. We said nice things about their January business and they’ve now lost four-in-a-row. As much as last week’s red-card inspired capitulation to Crystal Palace hurt, this one might feel even worse. Burnley had 75% of the ball, out-shot and out-xG’d Bournemouth. And they lost 2-0. And the manner of the first goal in particular will haunt Vincent Kompany. An execution error from Dara O’Shea (2) gave Justin Kluivert (15.5) a chance from nothing. And from that point on, Bournemouth just held Burnley at an arm’s length. Despite 20 Shots, only really Wilson Odobert (14) left the game with a particularly good Fantrax points total. We talked in the Preview about whether it was time to cut on David Datro Fofana (7). We said that this was the litmus test, and unless you’re in a particularly deep league or have a familial tie to the player, it’s probably safe to drop him at this point.
Lewis Cook (24.5) might never have an easier pair of Assists in his career. He won’t complain though. He led the way in terms of Fantrax points for Bournemouth here, coming in just ahead of Neto (19.25). Outside of those two, you’re mostly just looking at the Clean Sheet and Goalscorers to explain the rest of the Fantrax relevant scores. That means a quiet day for Dominic Solanke (6.5), though managers will mostly just be glad he was healthy enough to start. A visit from Sheffield United should be just what he needs to get the points flowing again. Not a classic from Bournemouth, but they won’t care in the slightest.
Manchester City 3 - 1 Manchester United
Sometimes when you watch a half of football, you can only really laugh. The first-half at the Etihad falls into that category. Manchester City were rampant. They could seemingly carve through United any time they wanted. They created 2.83 xG in a single half. In the derby. So, of course, they went in 1-0 down. And then, because football is football, they went from a half where seemingly nothing would bounce into the net, no matter how good the chances were, to one where they scored 3 times from 0.50 xG. Football can be a silly game sometimes. Phil Foden (32.5) is the main man of this season’s Manchester City title push and the consistency with which he’s impacting games this year is remarkable. He’s presumably the first attacking name on the team-sheet for Pep at this point and that elevates him from a guy who has always had incredible WAR output to a guy that deserves a seat at the top players’ table. One thing we’ve got an eye on with City is whether they settle into a Champions League lineup and a Premier League lineup, as Pep has occasionally done in the past. But on a weekly basis, one or more of the big names will miss out. On this occasion it was Julian Alvarez (9.5), but for anyone who gambled on him starting and was disappointed to see the team-sheet, his day was saved with an Assist. Like Liverpool, City have midweek action before their top-of-the-table clash, so we’ll await the teamsheets from Copenhagen eagerly.
A statistic was floating around in the post-match at the Etihad that Manchester United had started 23 different combinations at the back this season. We had a go at guessing what the most common combination was (having started together only 4 times). We didn’t get it. If you were thinking Diogo Dalot (2.75) at left-back, Jonny Evans (6) at left center-back, Raphael Varane (-1.75) at right center-back, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka at right-back, give yourself a pat on the back. If you were the person that set up a squad where that’s the most commonly used option, consider a career change (or at least a bigger medical room). Whatever Erik Ten Hag believes, the gap between these two squads is cavernous. And it doesn’t seem to be closing. The four subs United made in this game were a pair of 19 year old academy players, Antony (-0.5), and Sofyan Amrabat (0). We mean absolutely no offence to either of the young players (both of whom may go on to have excellent and exciting careers in top-level football) when we say that, were intellectual property laws not a thing, we’d be sticking the “you are not serious people’ meme here.
Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.
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