The Overthinking Roundup: GW25

In which City stumble, Liverpool creak but roll-on, Arsenal rumble ominously forwards and we see life in both United and Chelsea in the same week. What is this, 2008?!

Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 25.

This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.

As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!

Brentford 1 - 4 Liverpool

They won, but at what cost? Liverpool’s consistency in pushing at the top of the table has been remarkable, but they’ve hit a run of injuries that are really going to test the limits of this squad. A side that started the day already missing Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dominic Szoboszlai from the “first-choice” eleven lost Diogo Jota (12.5) and Curtis Jones (0), as well as feeling the need to pull Darwin Nunez (11) at half-time. Thankfully it was an otherwise routine game for Liverpool. It’s not that Brentford didn’t have moments but they were few and far between. Of their 1.69 xG, 1 of it was racked up after 90 minutes. Liverpool never really felt less than comfortable on the field.

This is absolutely not how we wanted to start a Double Gameweek for Liverpool, though. Anyone that started Jota and Jones are almost definitely out of luck for Wednesday. Those with Nunez will be sweating on his availability. And it seems likely many would have played cautious with Mo Salah (22) and not started him and surely nobody started Cody Gakpo (21). Its also a run of injuries that risks momentum in as tight a title race as we’ve seen in a long time and going into a cup final. If Jurgen Klopp is going to leave with trophies this year, it’s going to require every bit of managerial expertise he has.

For Brentford, Ivan Toney’s (19) goal gave him a floor and he built on it with 7 Shots (4 on Target). A reasonable chunk of those shots were pretty speculative and he dragged at a few others. But volume is vital for this game. He’s come back about as strongly as anyone could’ve hoped for and he’s forged a pretty good understanding with Neal Maupay (9). Both have put up a good enough opening score that whatever they do against City will be a bonus at this point. The other big Brentford news was that Ethan Pinnock, who was ruled out ahead of the game, is going to miss a lengthy period of time. This is a big blow for the Bees and for Fantrax and if you’re in non-playoff leagues, considering whether he’s a ‘hold’ is sensible, with so little of the season remaining and seemingly more injuries by the week.

Burnley 0 - 5 Arsenal

For the second time in as many Roundups, this was an Arsenal-led paddling. They’re in red-hot form right now. Sure, the fixtures get a little tougher in the next few weeks but given Liverpool’s injuries and Man City stuttering, Arsenal fans must be feeling pretty good about their chances right about now. Burnley couldn’t lay a glove on Arsenal. There’s no shame in that when they turn up in this sort of form. They get to play Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham in the next three, which looks a far more competitive set of games for them. That’ll be the real test as to how much better this side is with David Datro Fofana (0.5), who actually led the line pretty effectively at times but with very little help, and Lorenz Assignon (-8.25), who really struggled with Arsenal’s pace from wide, in it.

Win and move on to the next has to remain the mantra for Arsenal. Their December wobble looks far behind them, as they’ve put up 5 straight wins in 2024. But with the Champions League soon to return, it’s important to remember that a big factor in that wobble was compounding fatigue. Mikel Arteta will need to manage his squad carefully if he’s going to maintain a title charge. For now, though, both Arsenal fans and Fantrax managers that roster Arsenal stars will have big grins on their faces. Sometimes there’s nothing deeper to analyze.

Fulham 1 - 2 Aston Villa

Rodrigo Muniz (17.5) is the human manifestation of the MJ “And I took that personally” meme at this point. He’s a man on a mission since the Transfer Window closed and here with 8 Shots, 0.57 xG and 1 Goal, he’s making the case that Fulham needn’t have been in the market at all. He and Antonee Robinson (12), as usual, were the star men for Fulham and, to give some credit, the Cottagers did keep it tense for Villa right up to the final whistle. But the three points didn’t flatter Villa, who also saw two further chances closely ruled out by VAR in this game.

Villa had a rough week, with losses to Chelsea and United, but this was a good response on the pitch. It was a little more muted for Fantrax. Ollie Watkins (26) led the pack, as usual, and Douglas Luiz (12) remains an every-week must-start. Outside of that duo, it was only really Youri Tielemans (11) with his Assist-boosted score that offered good production. As we’ve seen in other games this year, a big part of that is just that Villa saw three quarters of their shot total end up off-target. They host Nottingham Forest next and that’s a “start all your guys” fixture, even with Forest’s improved form.

Newcastle 2 - 2 Bournemouth

I found this game difficult to watch. Not because of the on-pitch product. That was quite good, actually. But purely because someone thought having all 20 outfielders dressed in monochrome shades would be good for the eyes. I had to pause and rewind so many times to work out what was going on… On the field though, there was one big story. He’s been Fantrax relevant for a few seasons now, but this year is Dominic Solanke’s (28) career best so far. He won’t get many easier goals than his first, capitalising on a horrendous Martin Dubravka (4.75) error. And his Assist to Antoine Semenyo (11) was far from a tap-in opportunity created. But his all-round play would’ve had Newcastle envious. He finished with almost 2 xG on the day and probably should’ve had more than 1 Goal.

Newcastle continued their recent form of being a bit crap from open-play (particularly in defence) and quite good from set-pieces. In this case, their movement on a first-half set piece inducing Bournemouth to attempt wrestling moves rather than clearing the ball. Their equaliser came from another defensive error, though one that is hard to avoid. Matt Ritchie (12), himself once a Bournemouth player, attempted to head a ball back across goal from a cross (which truly only reached him because Lloyd Kelly (2.5) tripped over his own feet), saw it deflect back off Lewis Cook (9.5) to wrong-foot the Goalkeeper and offering him a tap-in. He won’t complain. Newcastle fans will desperately want to see something different up top, though. It’s been a few games without Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak and they really have struggled. With an in-form Arsenal up next, Eddie Howe will need to work some serious magic to not get blown away.

Nottingham Forest 2 - 0 West Ham

Tawio Awoniyi (12) is someone we talk about quite a bit. Despite Chris Wood’s occasional hat-trick heroics, Forest’s fortunes are very closely tied to having their main striker available. Steve Cooper didn’t have him for a stretch of the season and it cost him his job. Nuno has him back and suddenly Forest are hitting some form. We’re big fans of Awoniyi and, if Forest are to face any kind of points penalty for their financial dealings, they will need him down the stretch, so they’ll be hoping his exit around the 70th minute was nothing serious. It also helps that they’re getting a run of good games from Overthinking Football-favourite Callum Hudson-Odoi (22) who now has 4 Goals this season for Forest in 9 Games Started. He also showed his creative side again (a big part of his game when at Chelsea) with 4 Key Passes in this tie. He’s always had a tonne of talent and it’s fantastic to see him get healthy and get the run of matches needed to start showing it again. With Aston Villa and Liverpool up in the next two games, Forest will need to be on top form to come away with any points but they’re starting to get something out of a mostly settled lineup now. Stranger things have certainly happened.

David Moyes remains bullish. West Ham have not won a game in 2024 and have now lost three-on-the-bounce without a single Goal to show for it. That is bad. It also coincides with the absence of Lucas Paqueta (who is due back soon) and includes the period in which Mo Kudus (2.5) was at AFCoN. West Ham fans haven’t necessarily warmed to Moyes as you might expect for a man to deliver them silverware, but either way, we suspect that getting those two back into the lineup is the first step in a recovery for their form. Their next three games are Brentford, Everton and Burnley and if they can play well there, they would hope to be getting multiple wins. And, as Moyes reminded us all in his spiky press-conference, he is the manager who wins the most.

Tottenham 1 - 2 Wolves

Spurs have become the latest club to pick up the “weak on set-pieces” baton. And, whether fair or not, Joao Gomes (23) made the most of what he was given to open the scoring. Rewatching the header, not a single Spurs player really challenges close to the ball. And it was a set-piece that led to Wolves’ second goal, too. This time at the other end. Wolves won the first header, Yves Bissouma (9) was unable to control the ball at his feet and Wolves were away with Pedro Neto (10.5) who showed no sign of rust on his hamstring, bursting past the Tottenham defence and having the composure to spot Gomes rushing in for his second goal. Postecoglou would be frustrated with both goals. But this wasn’t a game in which Wolves opportunistically stole two goals and got lucky. There were other chances in the game that Wolves would’ve felt could’ve seen them with an even bigger lead. Hwang Hee-Chan (4.5) betrayed a little post-tournament rust when he missed a chance in the 6th minute. Pablo Sarabia (17), scourge of Spurs at Molineux, was offered a second-half chance that he fluffed somewhat. But Wolves showed once again that they can cope with absences. Matheus Cunha dropped out and they still had enough to compete in this game regardless. We’ve discussed what a good job Gary O’Neil is doing there before, but we’ll continue to do it as long as he continues to pull this Wolves team up the table.

It was an ugly day as far as Spurs were concerned. Dejan Kulusevski (21) did the business for his managers. His Goal was a big part of that, but he was also just very involved in general play. He led Spurs in Shots (2), had 2 Tackles Won and had 4 Successful Take-Ons. That’s a solid floor, but also shows part of the problem for Spurs. None of the other attackers really got into the game. Thankfully for Spurs, and managers of Spurs players, they’re getting mid-crisis Crystal Palace next which is an opportunity to shake this one off and get back to trying to consolidate their push for Top-5.

Man City 1 - 1 Chelsea

Mauricio Pochettino really does give Pep Guardiola some problems this year, it seems. For the second time this season, Man City have been unable to take three points against Chelsea. And there’s a lot that we can talk about from this one, much of it from the Chelsea side. We are only a Roundup or two removed from talking about them being comprehensively beaten by Liverpool and Wolves and yet something feels like it could be starting to fall into place.

For much of the season a combination of injury and selection choices have meant Chelsea often played without typical full-backs. They also then played with Thiago Silva plus another (most often Axel Disasi (8.5)) next to him. The common result of that is that Chelsea ended up in a fairly flat defensive line a lot of the time and that defensive line would drop off pretty willingly. Not so in their recent run of good games. Ben Chilwell (3.75), Levi Colwill (4.5) and Malo Gusto (10.5) joined Disasi as the back-four for this one and they were fairly good. Chelsea did give up chances (but everyone does to Man City), but the crucial part is what the more mobile back-line can do for the midfield. No longer was Moises Caicedo (1) asked to cover 30 yards of space all by himself. It makes a big difference stability wise. The other big difference from the Liverpool and Wolves game was the return of a striker to the lineup. Nicolas Jackson (13) takes stick for a lot of things, some fair, some not, but Chelsea are absolutely better with him in the lineup. He set up Raheem Sterling’s (16) Goal with a nice pass and run and had multiple examples of good hold-up play and interchange. He also had multiple attempts to pass behind City that didn’t work on the counter and one Big Chance that he was unable to control effectively with his first touch, allowing Ederson (8) to smother. Young teams will have ups and downs, but the big criticism of Chelsea so far this season is that they’ve too often tied one hand behind their own back in their play. With a striker in, actual full-backs playing and a more athletic centre-back pair, it feels like we’ve seen a glimpse of how this Chelsea side can work. They have a Cup Final to deal with next week, so we will have to wait another Gameweek to see if the momentum continues when they travel to Brentford.

Looking to the other side here, City should’ve probably won this game. Erling Haaland (9.5) in particular should’ve won this game. Haaland is a volume striker who will always end up high on the tally for ‘Big Chances Missed’ in a given season. It’s rare that he gets this many in a row, all in the same game. It’s not anything to worry about, particularly, but it shows the fine margins between an OK day and what could’ve been a pretty big haul for his 9 Shots and 1.58 xG. Everyone else on City had the output levels we’d expect, given they had 70% of the ball and 28 Shots (with special shout outs to Kevin De Bruyne (22), with 8 Key Passes, and Rodri (17.5), with his trademark big game goal) so chances are they’re all still on for some big Double Gameweek scores.

Sheffield United 0 - 5 Brighton

If we were Sheffield United, there are two things we’d look to avoid if we wanted to scrape points in the Premier League. One is making tackles like Mason Holgate’s (-7) in the 13th minute and leaving your team down to 10 players. Two is that we would avoid lining up with our players stood as a big arrow pointing towards our goal. At least try to make it harder for opposition teams to find.

Brighton needed no second invitation. They’re finally getting back some of their attacking names and Kaoru Mitoma (21) and Simon Adingra (25.5) both played their part in dismantling Sheffield United on the day. Adingra left it late to add his 2 Goals, but he is the one we found most interesting on the day. He had 14 touches in the Sheffield United box and took 6 Shots on the day. Even against ten-men, in a game you’re expected to win regardless, those are good numbers. Whether he can continue to develop (and make a Mitoma-like leap) will be a big factor in whether Brighton can hold a European spot as we move towards the end of the season. Unsurprisingly for a team with 5 Goals on the day and a Clean Sheet (who knew Brighton were capable of those), just about every Brighton starter was relevant. Adam Webster (7) came close to testing that, but only because he was withdrawn at Half Time. Sadly Tariq Lamptey (0), the other half-time withdrawal, was less fortunate. He had picked up a Yellow Card prior to his withdrawal and sadly stands out as one that might’ve been streamed, only to burn those who kept the faith. This increasingly healthy Brighton side host Everton next and they’ll hope to keep the good-times coming.

I’ve got very little to say about Sheffield United’s output here. Holgate dug them a real hole early and it’s not fair to judge the remaining ten men for struggling. And they really did struggle. They travel to Wolves next. Sheffield United fans would be forgiven for feeling like they just wanted to fast forward to next season so they can start winning games again.

Luton 1 - 2 Manchester United

He took 3 Shots. Lets open with that. 3 very good ones, in fact, as long as we’re giving him credit for deliberately chesting the ball for his second. And with that, Rasmus Hojlund (30) dragged United to another win. They’ve started to open up a gap from the other challengers for 5th. Maybe the chaos is the point after all. Because this game was not “big team smushes plucky Luton”. Truth be told, there’ve not been many smushings of Luton recently. But United did create quite a bit in this one. They had 21 Shots and 2.98 xG. That’s far better than most of their recent games. Sadly, it came at a cost, with Luke Shaw (-3), whose inclusion from the start might’ve raised an eyebrow or two given his injury history and similar withdrawal in the previous game, exiting prematurely once again. Managers in the Premier League this season seem determined to make their own lives harder in the long term when managing these sorts of injuries. Our fingers are crossed that it’s nothing serious for Shaw. For United, they’ve got Fulham next before they head to a Manchester Derby. We’re intrigued how well this “don’t worry about having the ball in the middle” thing works against City, but on the current form, we’d expect goals against Fulham. It’s been a while since we’ve confidently written it but: you can probably start all your United forwards with confidence in the next game.

Luton will be left wondering what might’ve been, had they not gifted United a lead in the most calamitous fashion. Amari’i Bell (2.5) made a real hash of passing back to his keeper and played a pass Bruno Fernandes (11) would’ve been proud of into the path of Hojlund. But after those early nerves settled, they commenced their near-trademark bombardment of crosses into the opposition penalty area. Alfie Doughty (9) alone attempted 16 Crosses (3 Corners) in this game. There were Fantrax-starter level performances in a number of places for this Luton side (again, we should add). We didn’t think they were necessarily a sensible target for the DGW. It’s hard to see how that doesn’t turn out to be an incorrect prediction, given 8 Luton players already sit on 7.5 or more points. And there are those amongst us at Overthinking Football who feel that Albert Sambi Lokonga’s (9.5) vital goal-denying stop should’ve earned him more than just a Blocked Shot bonus! We still don’t think it’s necessarily the likely outcome, but we’re totally up for another year of Luton in the Premier League at this point. It’s just good fun and Rob Edwards deserves a tonne of credit for how his team are competing.

Everton 1 - Crystal Palace 1

There isn’t much of note to say about this one, so we’ll keep it short. The broadcast team made more than one comment about the lack of skill displayed in the first half (we miss you, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise), but luckily things picked up a bit in the latter stages. Everton repeatedly came close to scoring off a series of set pieces only to have Jordan Ayew (10) take aim into the side netting just after the hour mark. With an increasingly angry Goodison crowd watching on, Everton did manage to pull back an important equalizer through substitute Amadou Onana (13). This match had the feel of a relegation six-pointer, and with the points split, both of these clubs won’t be sleeping easy in the coming weeks. It remains to be seen whether Palace’s managerial change will help them move away from the drop zone, but, frankly, it can’t get much worse than the current trajectory.

Outside of Ayew’s goal, the whole Palace team had a quiet day at the fantasy office. The Toffees, on the other hand, had 7 players score above 10 points. Dwight McNeil (19) led the way off of his corner assist, but Dominic Calvert-Lewin (11.5) also had a quality fantasy outing, even though he remains tragically goal-shy. All five Everton defenders put up good scores, but we would expect things to be a bit more difficult for their backline next week against Brighton.

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Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.