The Overthinking Roundup: GW24

In which Arsenal mean business, Haaland reminds us he’s a physical freak, McTominay is inevitable and even norovirus can’t stop Liverpool.

Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 24.

This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.

As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!

Manchester City 2 - 0 Everton

This was about as drab as you could get as a weekend opener but, if nothing else, it was a timely reminder that in Erling Haaland (28) and Kevin De Bruyne (9) City basically have a cheat-code for unlocking almost any team in the league. De Bruyne didn’t start this one (likely being managed after his injury layoffs) and City looked pretty unimaginative for most of the game. It wasn’t helped by Pep playing Manuel Akanji (1.5) in the hybrid defender / midfielder role we’re more used to seeing John Stones (11.5) play for much of the game. It didn’t work. Nor did whatever Matheus Nunes (3) was supposed to be doing for his 60 minutes on the field. That signing baffled us at the time, it baffles us even more so now. But none of that matters when you can bring on De Bruyne and when your striker has the physical ability to muscle Premier League centre-backs off the ball, whilst at full sprint, like they’re not even there. Jarrad Branthwaite (2.25) had a pretty good game overall but the part that will play on repeat in highlight packages is the sight of him looking like an under-12s player, bouncing off Haaland for City to seal the game.

I’ve got very little else to say about this one. Everton did limit City for a lot of the game, but they did it by just letting City have all of the ball and they couldn’t get out of their own half for most of the day. They certainly couldn’t generate much in the way of chances. They get Crystal Palace next, which is a much more appealing fixture for them, as they try to lift back out of the relegation scrap again.

Fulham 3 - 1 Bournemouth

The mentality of a professional sports person goes a long way to defining success. For Rodrigo Muniz (23.5), the limited minutes he’s seen as backup to Raul Jimenez must have been frustrating. Things would’ve got even more challenging when Fulham made a deadline day move to bring Armando Broja (1.5) down the road to join from Chelsea. And in the two matches since that move, Muniz has popped up with 3 Goals in 2 Games. It’s a good response. With Jimenez out for a while longer, this is a chance for someone to step up and it’s very much first-blood to the Brazilian. This was a good result for Fulham (their first win in 5), who also expect to welcome back Alex Iwobi soon. They will face an Aston Villa side who are in real need of a win next time out. We imagine it’ll be Rodrigo Muniz who gets the nod to lead the line in that one. We’re still cautious about his Fantrax relevance (he’s young and raw in a way that screams likely inconsistency) but we’re seeing a spark of something from him in the last couple of games. When we’re talking about young guys who are new into the league, progression through the season has a higher likelihood of being genuine development, instead of just a variance blip, so we’re at least putting him on the radar.

Bournemouth might look at the xG in this one and want to feel aggrieved. But the truth is, Fulham got ahead early and just never really looked like they would give up that lead. That naturally impacts how aggressive a team will be in attack. We also saw some weirdness around CB scoring. Both Marcos Senesi (18.5) and Illia Zabarnyi (12.5) had high scoring games, despite shipping 3 Goals. In Senesi’s case, he scored Bournemouth’s only Goal of the game (and unexpectedly popped up with 3 Key Passes) and that tells most of the story. For Zabarnyi, we saw a huge 10 Aerial Duels won which is a huge leap from his previous season high of 6. We like Zabarnyi as a young defender but it’s hard to imagine this volume repeating on a weekly basis so he’s not someone you’re going to want to start often. He gets Newcastle up next, who are a set-piece heavy team. We’d still quite happily set the over / under on his Aerials at 4.5 for that one, though.

Liverpool 3 - 1 Burnley

A sickness-bug ruled Alisson out of this game early. And based on the level of energy Liverpool were showing early on, it may well have been impacting a few others in the camp. Liverpool were sloppy in the first half in particular and Burnley gave a decent enough account of themselves, if never truly looking likely to come away with points. We thought that they might turn to David Datro Fofana (7.5) after his positive impact as a substitute. He was ok in this one. Maybe better than expected on the Fantrax front. He did hold the ball up reasonably well and was involved plenty, especially early on. But he’d probably have liked to have his opportunity to pull Burnley level again around the hour-mark back, as it was a good chance after a Liverpool mix-up that he unfortunately put straight at the keeper. He had another good chance not long-after that he dragged just wide. If he can keep getting into these positions, that’s a positive. And he’ll get better matchups than this. It probably won’t be next week, though, as Arsenal head to Turf Moor.

For all that we said about Liverpool looking sloppy, Harvey Elliott (15) must’ve avoided the training ground lasagna. He came on at half-time and changed the game. We remain massive fans of Elliott and this was a glimpse of why he’s probably unfortunate to not have more minutes under his belt. Liverpool will hope that by the time March comes around, they’ll get Mo Salah back. But when all the other forwards are popping up with goals in his absence, the blow is certainly softened. We also appreciated a rare three-headed goal game. A trip to Brentford is on the cards next and they’ll likely be making that trip without Trent Alexander-Arnold (14), who seemed to reaggravate his previous injury. Liverpool will take no chances with their star full-back, so we’d expect him to miss at least the next game.

Luton Town 1 - 3 Sheffield United

We said that Sheffield United had no choice but to win this. And they won it. It was one of the weirder games of the weekend. Luton had almost all of the ball, took a whole bunch of shots, but were met with a whole lot of Sheffield United resistance. Luton ended up with 13 shots from inside the penalty area. That is a lot of shots to result in just a single goal. And a big part of that story was Sheffield United getting bodies in the way. They had 8 recorded Blocked Shots by Opta’s count. Chris Wilder has done good things for this defence. We were underwhelmed by their efforts to change things after a poor start to the season, but Wilder certainly look an improvement when it comes to defensive shape and organisation over his predecessor. Given they’re usually playing from behind, that can go under the radar, but here they took the lead, Cameron Archer (11) finishing smartly after a nice run down the left. If the first was nicely created by United, the second had an element of luck. A corner was headed from close-range into a Luton hand and the VAR ruled it a penalty (this would even out not a whole lot later, which saves us from terrible refereeing discourse). James McAtee (10.5) made no doubt from the spot and Sheffield United had a lead that they weren’t going to give up. Quick shoutout for Vinicius de Souza (26.5), who ended the day with a Goal and an Assist. We typically describe him as a floor selection with limited ceiling. He certainly had a ceiling this weekend.

Luton did bombard Sheffield United somewhat. Alfie Doughty (22) was credited with 9 Key Passes in this game (he took 12 corners, for those wondering). That’ll take some beating as a stat. But it only amounted to a total of 0.39 xA, which again speaks to how Sheffield United limited Luton. We thought this looked like a smash-spot for Luton names and it didn’t end up that way. All of the attacking names pretty much delivered ok performances but certainly not the sort of outputs we were hoping for when facing this Sheffield United side. They get a visit from Manchester United next week and this will be a test of Rob Edwards’ ability to pick the team back up to continue their push to safety.

Tottenham 2 - 1 Brighton

We said two things confidently in the Preview. One: this game is unlikely to come with any Clean Sheet points for either side. Two: Brighton would be well-advised to get physical with Guglielmo Vicario (2). Check and check. This wasn’t as wild as the last time these two sides met (a 4-2 Brighton win at the Amex) but it was still an interesting enough game. For Spurs, we’re enjoying the Timo Werner (8) experience quite a bit, but the return of Son Heung-Min (9.5) on the hour-mark likely signals the start of a rotation (at best) here for Spurs. One player who we might’ve expected to sit towards the bottom of that rotation is Brennan Johnson (13.5). And we were pretty unimpressed with the impact the substitute was making, right up until the point he ended the game. Betting on athletic traits seems to be a big thing for the Premier League at the moment and his goal was a great example of the aggressive positioning on the break you can take when you are able to get up the field quickly.

The other two goals in this game would probably be best described as ‘chaotic’. Brighton’s goal came from Spurs botching a play out from the back that allowed Danny Welbeck (12) and Facundo Buonanotte (1) to combine smartly (with a minor deflection involved) and ended with Micky van de Ven (7.75) clumsily bringing down Welbeck. Pascal Gross (17) didn’t need a second invitation. And if there was some fortune in how the ball bounced to Welbeck, there was maybe even more in Pape Sarr’s (10) goal. An attempted cross from Sarr that a defender blocks onto the post, only to deflect perfectly back into the path of Sarr, if you haven’t seen it. Either way, Spurs will be delighted to have made up for the loss at the Amex during their rough run in December. And they get a chance to make-up for another of those results next time, with a visit from Wolves.

Wolves 0 - 2 Brentford

Speaking of Wolves, this wasn’t what we expected to see when they faced Brentford. We spoke in the Preview about Sergio Reguilon (24.25) and how important that left side would be for Brentford if they were going to contain and beat Wolves. Audition very much passed. This wing-back role suits the Spurs-loanee far more than the traditional full-back position. The upcoming fixtures are not pleasant whatsoever for him, with Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal in the next five. But if this is an audition for a move from Spurs, he’s started it well. We don’t want to imply this was a one-man performance, though. Brentford were just better on the day than Wolves and we could talk about a number of performers who did the business. Near-enough everyone that you could’ve started performed at replacement or better level. Going into a rough stretch makes things difficult, even with Double Gameweeks on the horizon, but this was nice to see from the Bees, who we think have played better than their results for a lot of this season.

Wolves didn’t really ever get going and unfortunately lost Matheus Cunha (4) to injury less than 20 minutes in. They’ve been pretty unlucky to not have their preferred forwards on the field together for a while now. Hwang Hee-Chan was a potential returnee here, but missed out on the squad. We imagine he’ll be back in for the next game to try to rekindle his chemistry with Pedro Neto (12). It also likely means Pablo Sarabia (12) has a shot at retaining his place for the Spurs game. Memories of Sarabia’s late Goal and Assist from the previous game will not be fond for Spurs, so they might’ve preferred Cunha.

Nottingham Forest 2 - 3 Newcastle

Last time these two sides met, Chris Wood scored a hat-trick over his old club to condemn them to a 3-1 loss. This time out, Forest might’ve actually played better than the reverse fixture, only to see two moments of Bruno Guimaraes (22.5) magic erase all that good work. If they could pick-up on set-pieces, they could easily have won this one. We have taken to describing Forest as something of an ‘Island of Misfit Toys,’ given their preferred forward line is a striker let go by Liverpool, a winger let go by Manchester United, a winger let go by Chelsea, and they’ve just added an attacker let go by Borussia Dortmund. Sometimes they remind us why they had their original clubs excited in the first place. Their first goal was a sequence that required just six touches to go from Callum Hudson-Odoi (17.5) receiving in the left-back area, via Morgan Gibbs-White (12.5), and into the path of Anthony Elanga (15.5) for a first-time finish. Not long after, Hudson-Odoi was lining up another trademark long-range effort, which found its way into the bottom left of Newcastle’s goal.

We don’t really know what to make of Newcastle. In open play, they created just 0.18 xG in this game. And they let Forest rack up 1.41. And this isn’t new. They just aren’t controlling games the way we saw last year. The balance in the side (the midfield in particular) is just not quite right and it means that the defenders are reliant on goal contributions to return value. That’s fine if you’re Kieran Trippier (11.5) who has the set-piece role. But we’re not convinced Fabian Schar’s (15.5) purple goal-scoring patch is something to bet on continuing. Eddie Howe faces his old side Bournemouth next, who are perfectly capable of creating and finishing chances. We’re certainly not betting on a Newcastle Clean Sheet any time in the near future.

West Ham United 0 - 6 Arsenal

Paddling. Not much else to say about it. These are the sorts of games where you really don’t need a whole lot of analysis. 5 Arsenal players scored more than 20 points. A further 5 were in the 10-20 point range. If you faced multiple Arsenal players in your matchup, you probably lost the Gameweek. We aren’t used to seeing this Moyes West Ham side capitulate like this, but this isn’t a side constructed to be pulling back big deficits. They’ll just want to dust themselves off and start game planning for Nottingham Forest at the weekend.

Arsenal will hope to keep the good times going when they head to Turf Moor. Gabriel Jesus may be passed fit for it but the temptation will probably be there to just re-roll with this side and to give the Brazilian a little longer to recover from his injury. This three-way title race remains interesting and we are very here for it.

Aston Villa 1 - 2 Manchester United

Aston Villa are in something of a brutal run. In their last 4 games, they’ve had one big win (against Sheffield United), which is sandwiched with 3-1 losses against Newcastle and Chelsea, and now they’ve lost to United. The gap between their position in 5th and the chasing pack (namely United) is still fairly large, but it is shrinking. And Villa maybe will feel aggrieved that this one shook out as it did. They ended the game with 23 shots for 2.43 xG (10 on Target) but only a single goal, following a corner sequence, from Douglas Luiz (20). This was certainly not as bad as the performances in those Newcastle or Chelsea games, but that will not be much consolation for Unai Emery. They’ll head to Fulham with something of a point to prove.

For United, this was a fairly typical performance. Rasmus Hojlund (13) takes 2 or fewer shots. Harry Maguire (19.25) is their best CB. And Scott McTominay (12) scores a late winner). Flippancy aside, this continues United’s mini-resurgence and probably the best news if you’re a United supporter is that Casemiro (4.5) appears to have come back with a little gas in the tank after his injury. This was certainly not a given as he’d started the season pretty appallingly. It does make a big difference for them. They’re the most realistic contender if anyone is going to sneak into 5th and break up the current Champions League contending teams. We don’t think it will happen (it’s not ideal when your Goalkeeper is regularly your Man of the Match), but with upcoming fixtures against Luton and Fulham, this isn’t a bad time to consider adding some United players to your rosters.

---

Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.