The Overthinking Roundup: GW21 (Part Two)

In which we have to split a Gameweek into two parts, thanks to some wild Premier League scheduling!

Welcome to the second half of the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 21. Full disclosure, a chunk of this one is being written after waking up at 3am (some unfriendly kick-off times for those of us living in GMT + time zones) to watch the Detroit Lions make the NFC Championship game. We’re also not going to be able to cover Brighton Wolves fully and get this out on time for Waivers, so Monday Night Football is not covered (as usual).

This is our guide to the (half) week that was. In it, we’ll go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.

As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!

Arsenal 5 - 0 Crystal Palace

Let’s get the most straight-forward game out of the way. This was a paddling. It took 11 minutes for Arsenal to score and the game was near enough done from that point on. They didn’t let up, though, and the end result was positive Fantrax performances for just about everyone (some of the subs included). Other than Kai Havertz (0), who should not be rostered or started, the lowest points tally for a starter was, perhaps surprisingly, Martin Odegaard (7.5). It wasn’t a particularly special game for Odegaard but there was nothing really to worry about here. He had the most touches of any Arsenal midfielder and did create 3 chances. The only real downside for Arsenal (and Fantrax managers) in this one was the second-half exit for Gabriel Magalhaes (31.75) who was having himself a big day. He had mustered 3 Shots (all from corners) and was probably a little unlucky not to score again, with the third of those efforts being a particularly good chance. Mikel Arteta has suggested that the withdrawal was precautionary so with a week before the trip to Nottingham Forest, we expect him to recover for that one. But it’s something to monitor nonetheless.

Crystal Palace were Eberechi Eze (18) plus ten other guys for Fantrax purposes. Far too often that’s been the summary in both wins and losses. They’ve been hugely unfortunate with their injuries this season but they’re in a pretty rough run of form. The win at Brentford last time out (almost three weeks ago) looks the outlier and their trip to Sheffield United feels a big deal with Palace sat just 5 points above the relegation spots. We don’t think there’s much risk of them getting embroiled down there, particularly with Nottingham Forest and Everton facing potential further FFP sanctions but these things can snowball. It wasn’t long ago that you’d start everyone against Sheffield United but we’re not sure that it applies here. Starting Eze (and Michael Olise if he’s healthy) is a no-brainer. Whether you can trust the rest is less of a sure thing at this point with Sheffield United starting to show a little form.

Brentford 3 - 2 Nottingham Forest

The headline on this one was only ever going to be about one man, for good or for bad. It took just under 20 minutes for him to show us which. Back to availability, back to the line-up, back to doing what he does best. Ivan Toney (18) is a very good striker and having him back instantly elevates this Brentford side. It wasn’t a perfect performance, nor did he look without rust, but it’s clear that he’s an instant must-start for Brentford and should go straight into Fantrax lineups everywhere. We also got a fun reminder of why multiple teams in the Premier League are tempted by Neal Maupay’s (12) talent. He did very little all game, then popped up with a goal that’s certain to win at least Brentford’s Goal of the Month competition. Seriously, if you haven’t seen it, go take a look. The Maupay experience is pretty set at this point. You’re not happy about starting him most weeks, but he is staring semi-regularly and he’ll occasionally do something. Upcoming games against Tottenham and Manchester City don’t scream “start him”, though. Ben Mee (21.25) was the other big Fantrax winner of the day for Brentford. He had a Goal from a set piece and a whole bunch of defensive counting stats in a performance that reminded us just why he’s so important to Brentford as a team. It’s rare that he so convincingly outscores his centre-back partner Ethan Pinnock (3.5) but with 2 Goals conceded, Pinnock’s day was never likely to be huge without a goal involvement. It’s been an up and down year for Pinnock (and Brentford) for Fantrax and we wouldn’t blame anyone for not starting him in the next two, but we imagine he’ll return to his usual long-term value in the second-half of the season as long as Mee is beside him. The last player to mention for Brentford was Keane Lewis-Potter (4.5). The man with three surnames didn’t show up on the Fantrax stat sheet but, in the first-half in particular, was involved in a lot of Brentford’s best attacks. A little more composure and he could’ve had at least a Goal to his name. He finished the day with 0.60 xG+xA. That’s quite good. It’s a continuation of a run of good games for him and if you’re optimistic about his potential, this could easily just be written off as a bad variance day.

For Forest the enforced changes here were significant. It’s only because of the sheer volume of players that they’ve signed over the last few years that they could even put out eleven senior players. A combination of injury and AFCoN related departures meant we saw a heavily shuffled lineup and I will say that I was worried for them when the team-sheet came out. But regardless of who was missing, this lineup performed. They played Brentford pretty evenly for most of the day and it wouldn’t have been that shocking had they earned a point. There were only really four performances of note, which keeps things simple. Chris Wood (19) has been far better than expected in his starts this season and it continued again here. He worked hard all game and although he only managed 2 Shots, he had an xG of 0.44 and got a Goal for his troubles. I don’t fully understand how he’s still doing it at this point in his career, but we can’t dispute he is. Callum Hudson-Odoi’s (14.5) assist was his big contribution and it was a trademark cross from wide - a throwback to some of his better highlights at Chelsea. Forest fans will be hoping this is going to be a regular thing, after a few injury-curtailed false starts for Hudson-Odoi at Forest. Danilo’s (14) day was all about his goal, so there’s not too much to see here and he isn’t someone you’ll want to be streaming regularly. And the last big day was Nicolas Dominguez (10). He’s flashed potential in his short Forest career but has been fairly inconsistent. But this was a nice performance and he might consider himself unlucky to not have an Assist. Forest get Arsenal next, which is not a pleasant matchup on paper. They’ll be hoping for two things. One: a return to the lineup for Morgan Gibbs-White. And two: a performance level equivalent to that of their trip to the Emirates. We’re not rushing to start Forest streamers in that one, though.

Sheffield United 2 - 2 West Ham

Whether you want to attribute this result to Chris Wilder’s influence on Sheffield United, West Ham’s absentees or something in between, this was a close (and enjoyable) game of football. It wasn’t a Tiki-Taka classic but it was probably the most fun I had in any of the rewatches. There were chaotic elements to basically all of the goals, a roll-back-the-years centre-forward performance and two red cards. I’m not sure what I really expected from this matchup but it probably wasn’t this.

The game swung on some key moments and James Ward-Prowse (25), as he often does, found himself right in the middle of it. It was his ponderous and loose touch in the West Ham box that allowed Ben Brereton Diaz (16.5) his first goal in the Premier League. We’re a little dubious that this is a signing that dramatically improves Sheffield United’s odds of staying in the Premier League but there’s no denying the sharpness he showed to crash the box and pick Ward-Prowse’s pocket. Ward-Prowse made amends by converting a penalty that looked like it would seal a West Ham win late in the second half. But Oli McBurnie’s (16) 103rd minute penalty after being sandwiched by two West Ham players whilst attacking a cross saw the points shared.

Ok. That’s two paragraphs in and we’ve not mentioned Danny Ings (30.5) yet. This was a fun reminder that Ings used to be one of the league’s most exciting forwards. His deflected shot early on fell to Maxwell Cornet (11.5) to score the first goal. Ing’s dribble into the box led to a Sheffield United player bringing him down for Ward-Prowse’s penalty. He also had 6 Shots for 0.82 xG. We’re not particularly rushing to add him, as Sheffield United is a matchup that favours attacking players generally speaking and Ings has not done much in other cameos this year. But if you gambled on him, you got repaid big time. Bournemouth are next up for West Ham and we’ll likely see a mostly unchanged lineup, with most of their availability challenges being AFCoN / suspension related. It’s a worse-matchup but certainly not one you should be afraid of when making streamer decisions.

Bournemouth 0 - 4 Liverpool

No Salah, no problem for Liverpool. The big question over the last year or so has been “how much longer are Liverpool going to rely on Mo Salah to lead the attack?”. This was only exacerbated by attempts to convince Salah to move to Saudi Arabia in the Summer and will only get louder with each passing year. Replacing what he brings to the side is going to be a massive challenge. But this game was a reminder that they’re still a top attacking unit, even without Salah. Darwin Nunez (33) reached double figures for Goals and Assists in all competitions with his double in this one and Diogo Jota (33) led the line admirably, popping up with 2 Goals and an Assist. We know what each brings at this point, so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that Jota got his output from 0.52 xG + xA and Nunez from 1.20 xG + xA. This is a Bournemouth side missing a few key pieces through injury and AFCoN but they’ve been in pretty good form recently and, even if the final scoreline was flattering for Liverpool based on the expected numbers, this was an impressive win. And for all the changes up-front, the back-line looked fairly different to what we’re used to as well. Ibrahima Konate (22.25), Conor Bradley (22) and Joe Gomez (19) are arguably not in Liverpool’s ‘strongest XI’ but each was in good form on the South Coast. There were only really two disappointments from players that may have started. One was Luis Diaz (1.5). He just wasn’t particularly involved in anything threatening and his one shot was a speculative long-ranger that was easy for the Bournemouth keeper. Diaz isn’t as explosive as the other forwards at Liverpool and this campaign has been one of the first players swapped by Jurgen Klopp far more often than his managers would like. The talent is still clearly there, though, so you should keep starting him. Harvey Elliott (4.5) was one of our tips for this game and we were happy to see him listed as starting. He was heavily involved touches wise but he wasn’t credited with any Chances Created and only took 1 Shot. That kind of volume rarely leads to big days. Liverpool draw Chelsea next, which is a fixture they’ve tended to make fairly hard work of in recent games, regardless of Chelsea’s form. It will be a fascinating one to watch.

Marcus Tavernier (12) might be the most-matchup proof player in the entire league. You just play him every time he starts and he returns double figures most of the time, whether Bournemouth win or lose. Ryan Christie (10) was the other Bournemouth player with double figure points. I have to admit to being a bit surprised by it when I saw it on the stat-sheet. He got there with a combination of 2 Key Passes, a couple of Successful Take-Ons and a handful of defensive stat contributions. This one feels like an example of Fantrax scoring not necessarily aligning that well to how well a player actually played, as the Bournemouth midfield really struggled for a lot of this game. Christie has been a decent streaming option in a lot of games this year, though, so with West Ham and Nottingham Forest the next two games, he’s not a bad option. The last thing we wanted to talk about is what happened with the winger spots, with Bournemouth’s AFCoN departures. Luis Sinisterra (5) got the first go and was ok. With Bournemouth unable to really get going, he didn’t get much chance to threaten Goals or Assists but he got a few Take-Ons and some defensive work. We like him a fair bit more in the next few games, assuming he holds down the spot.

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Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.

As this is a half-week, we’ve already covered a lot of the teams in Part 1, so this is a smaller shortlist. Please do check back on that one for any other tips.