The Overthinking Roundup: GW21 (Part One)

In which we have to split a Gameweek into two parts, thanks to some wild Premier League scheduling!

Welcome to the first half of the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 21.

This is our guide to the (half) week that was. In it, we’ll go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.

As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!

Burnley 1 - 1 Luton Town

Burnley came so close to doing the double over Luton here. As regular readers know, we have a policy of not talking too much about refereeing decisions, but we can acknowledge that there’ll be some frustration at Turf Moor after this one.

Fantrax-wise, Burnley’s bright-spots this season have regularly been Lyle Foster (7) and Wilson Odobert (11.5). It continued here. Odobert was twice unlucky. First that he wasn’t given the assist for the cross that led to Burnley’s opener, having beaten the Luton defence with a typically direct run. Then later that his deflected shot didn’t creep in on the inside of Thomas Kaminski’s (12) post. He’s still raw but he’s a player that seems to be improving week-after-week and is a reminder of the in-season gains a young player can make as they gain experience and vital development minutes. It was also a second Goal in as many games for Zeki Amdouni (15.5). He’s not someone that we’re rushing to add but in Burnley’s rare good matchups, he’s performed pretty well and has streaming potential. With Manchester City their next opponent, however, it would take extreme optimism to consider GW22 to be a ‘good matchup’.

For Luton, this was a pretty big Fantrax day. The first player to talk about is Chiedozie Ogbene (20) who hit his high points tally without a Goal or Assist or set piece duties, courtesy of his 3 Shots on Target, his 4 Key Passes and his 5 Successful Take-Ons. The xG (0.2) and xA (0.12) wasn’t huge, but for Fantrax volume is King. The usual suspects of Ross Barkley (14) and Alfie Doughty (10.5) continue to deliver and it was nice to see, somewhat out of favour, Carlton Morris (11.5) play the hero for Luton again from the bench. Their next game is against Brighton which, whilst a tough matchup, usually does mean some attacking potential for opposition players. The trio of Ogbene (if he starts), Barkley and Doughty is about as far as we’d go, but

Chelsea 1 - 0 Fulham

Whatever Chelsea’s form, whatever Chelsea’s attacking options, it seems like they’ve still got Fulham’s number. And, even as a Chelsea fan, I’ll admit I’m a little confused by it given the lineups and how Chelsea have played this year. The first time the two sides met, Tim Ream unfortunately just had a wild few minutes and once Chelsea were 2-0 up, it was always a big ask for Fulham to get a result. This time… Well they didn’t really do much of anything for the majority of the first half. This Chelsea side have shown themselves to be incredibly vulnerable at times to sides that can apply pressure and counter but Fulham did neither of those things. They did limit Chelsea’s attack for the most part (though some of that seemed Chelsea’s own doing with some pretty appalling or non-existent movement in the penalty area at times) but the fine margins of the game they’d chosen to play meant that one extended leg from Issa Diop (6.25) and Cole Palmer (14.5) was gratefully able to put Chelsea ahead from the spot. Fulham were better in the second half, but it was still not good enough to generate a lot. They finished the game with just 0.86 xG and only 4 Shots on Target.

That’s not to say it was all bad from a Fantrax perspective. Antonee Robinson (9) did his usual thing. Tosin Adarabioyo (12) was seemingly everywhere with 8 Clearances and 6 Aerial Duel Wins, showing up well against Armando Broja (4) and Willian (8.5) was his usual active self, despite a robust second half tackle from Malo Gusto (11.5) which was probably on the orange side of a yellow card. Fulham’s form is pretty hard to read, given they’ve bounced from consecutive 5-0 wins to losses to Burnley and Bournemouth, only to then beat Arsenal. The fixture schedule isn’t particularly kind to them, either, with games January 25th, 28th and 31st across the EFL Cup, FA Cup and Premier League. Tiredness kills and we would probably avoid loading up on Fulham players for their matchup with Everton.

There aren’t loads of takeaways for Chelsea from this one. There’s an interesting decision coming up around the goalkeeper position, given Djordje Petrovic (19) continues to look confident between the sticks as a shot-stopper and passable in distribution. The sample is still fairly small, but Robert Sanchez is currently credited with a -0.05 PSxG prevented/90, whilst Petrovic is listed at 0.07. It’s not a giant difference, it might just be noise. But across 38 games, that performance level would see Sanchez concede 3.5 more than Petrovic. That Petrovic is doing this in his first exposure to the Premier League suggests he’s the one to roll with but undoubtedly he is more limited in his passing range (Chelsea are asking him to play short a lot less often). And the only other thing we’ll call out for Chelsea is that if Christopher Nkunku is set to miss the game against Liverpool, we’re pretty concerned where the xG and shots are going to come from. It’s too soon in his injury comeback to say Broja can never be a good Premier League forward. But he looks off the pace right now and has looked pretty peripheral in a number of his appearances. He doesn’t need to be rostered for Fantrax.

Newcastle United 2 - 3 Manchester City

Welcome back, Kevin De Bruyne (24.5), Fantrax has missed you. If anyone was looking for a reminder of why De Bruyne is consistently a Top-3 pick in Fantrax, this cameo was it. His new hairstyle also perhaps proof that Jack Grealish’s influence goes beyond the pitch. But before we get to any of that, let’s talk about the rest of the game.

The first half of this one set off at some pace. Within the first ten minutes we’d seen a Sean Longstaff (0.5) goal ruled off for offside, injuring Ederson in the process and forcing City into a change at the Goalkeeper position. Not long after, City took the lead with a Bernardo Silva (11.5) back-heel flick that he made look offensively easy. Newcastle were able to get an equaliser via a Bruno Guimaraes (11.5) curling pass to Alexander Isak (15) who still had plenty to do to finish into the top corner. And before City could take a breath, Anthony Gordon (14.5) was cutting in from the left wing to curl another shot around City’s backup Goalkeeper. Both were good finishes, though you have to wonder if Ederson might’ve got near at least the second effort. Either way, Stefan Ortega (2) did do well to prevent Isak making it a two goal lead a few minutes later. When the half-time whistle blew, City likely felt shell-shocked, hit by a pair of quick punches from nowhere as Newcastle upped the pressure in a wild-final ten minutes.

Getting a lead against City is hard enough. Keeping one is even harder. In the second half City had 16 Shots, 8 on Target for 2.04 xG but it was De Bruyne’s effort from distance (0.08 of that xG total, if you’re counting) that put City level. It was another example of a top-player making something look effortless. And if that wasn’t enough of a reminder of his talent, his late pass to Oscar Bobb (13) left Kieran Trippier (5.25) in knots. It still took some smart footwork from Bobb to finish the chance, but I’m sure he’ll understand why he’s relegated to the position of Sideshow here (sorry, I couldn’t resist) given how sharp De Bruyne looks on his return. We talked in the Preview about the potential for an impending return to attacking-option roulette at City. Looking at the play of Jeremy Doku (7) and De Bruyne here, it probably starts immediately. Good luck to us all predicting who starts against Burnley on the 31st.

We saw Newcastle’s season in microcosm here. At times excellent, at times sloppy and looking pretty leggy towards the end. We are concerned about the form for Trippier as he looks a shadow of his usual self. We’d not be surprised if he was managing a minor injury but given his age and the fixture congestion, getting him back to form has to be priority number one for Eddie Howe. An away trip to Aston Villa isn’t an obvious place for rotation, but they do get almost two weeks run up to that game. Perhaps the visit of Luton is a sensible time to expect to see Tino Livramento back in the lineup.

Everton 0 - 0 Aston Villa

I had this one down as a dark-horse candidate for Game of the Weekend. It was not. It was fairly even (at times it threatened to be interesting, particularly in relation to some of the tackles flying in) but a draw was overall a fair-ish result for what we saw on field. The ball did hit the back of the net earlyishin the first half but VAR soon intervened to rule the assisting player offside to keep things at 0-0 and prevent Alex Moreno (15.5) having a huge day. It was a lovely strike regardless and you’d imagine his family and friends have seen it replayed plenty of times in the last 24 hours regardless. Fun quirk for Moreno is that across his 6 most recent games, he’s either scored 1 point or 15 points. Nothing else. Here it was the Clean Sheet that really elevated his output, but he’s always involved in progressing the ball for Villa and this was the third consecutive game for him with 2 Key Passes. Based on roster percentages, a few weeks of down output had him released in a small handful of leagues. He shouldn’t be on waivers in any league.

Outside of the defenders, it was a pretty quiet day for Villa. Ollie Watkins had 6 Shots in the game but he only managed to direct a single one on target. Alongside his Yellow Card, it meant his day was a lot quieter than it might otherwise have been. Interestingly Jhon Duran (1.5) came on on a bit of a mission, having 4 Shots in just 25 minutes of game time (including the pick of the chances late from a Matty Cash (5) cross, which he put off target). Cash was heavily involved in his limited action and we wonder if Unai Emery might consider a recall for Cash to the starting lineup in the near future. It probably won’t come against Newcastle in the next game, though.

On the other side of things, Everton had a disallowed goal of their own. Theirs came late, with Abdoulaye Doucoure (8.5) momentarily thinking he’d won this game for Everton. This one didn’t need VAR, though. The flag was up and the goal ruled out. He still put out an entirely respectable output, though. It’s slightly confusing to me that he isn’t selected for his National Team, but Everton will not complain that they get to keep him this month. Everton’s points distribution is similar to Villa’s, with defenders the stars of the show. But James Garner (13) did have a strong game with multiple Key Passes a Shot on Target the headlining stats. He’s been a nice depth option this season in most sized leagues. Our last comment on Everton for this week is to highlight Arnaut Danjuma (3.5). He started and would’ve tempted at least someone into starting him. And it’s understandable why. He ended the game with 3 Shots (0 on target) and 1 Chance Created in 60 minutes of action but ultimately finished as a disappointment on the stat sheet. We’d imagine he’s out again as soon as Dwight McNeil (-0.5) is deemed healthy enough to start. With two weeks before Everton’s next game, we imagine that McNeil is back for the trip to Fulham.

Manchester United 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur

And to close out this mini-Roundup, we’re heading to Old Trafford for a 2-2 draw. We’re going to start on the Spurs side of the ball, where there were a few notable elements to the lineup. Firstly, Micky van de Ven (-1.75) returned to the lineup. That’s a big deal. It’s not that he personally is all that special for Fantrax purposes, but the unit as a whole was a lot better with him in it. It raises the floor for the other three defenders to have him in. Secondly, we got through another Rodrigo Bentancur (11.5) comeback game without an injury, with him completing 90 minutes and scoring 1 Goal in this one. And, lastly, Tottenham gave an immediate start to Timo Werner (7.5) who was bright on his second-debut in English football. We saw a bit of everything we were used to seeing - he had a nice pass to Bentancur in the second half that earned him an Assist. And he had a first half shot that threatened to hurt the spectators sat in the tier above the corner flag. Overall, we liked what we saw from Timo, even if things were a little underwhelming in the Fantrax point tally. He had 5 Shots from his wide forward position. That in itself is notable, given it’s a potential 10 point swing if they end up in the keepers gloves. He also just looks a better fit for this Tottenham style, as we hoped he might. We’re still cautiously optimistic and look forward to seeing how it looks at Brentford, when he’ll have had more time training with his new team-mates.

The other, slightly more familiar, Tottenham story is that Pedro Porro (25.75) continues his huge involvement in Tottenham’s attacking points. He took 13 (!) Corners in this game. He had 5 Key Passes and an Assist as a result and that role is incredibly valuable for Spurs. We are still assuming that James Maddison takes that role back when he returns but Porro has shown himself to be a very capable deputy. We’re also going to shout out Richarlison (17) who has completely turned around the form struggles he entered the year with and has only one non-double figure game in the last six. Managers who kept the faith are being well rewarded.

For United, things couldn’t have started much better. Rasmus Hojlund (19.5) showed us all the raw striking talent that United believe will make him a high-level striker one-day to react to the ball coming loose from a tackle on Marcus Rashford (12) in the box. There was no chance for the keeper. But, as ever with Hojlund, the problem is that it was the only shot he took all game. He played 90 minutes. He did get an assist to Rashford, which is nice. But when United were chasing the game, the big chances once again were generated by Scott McTominay (2). We know a lot of United fans treat McTominay as something of a meme but the fact he’s able to consistently generate shots and chances is irreplaceable if you’re playing a forward line that can’t. Erik Ten Hag gave some questionable quotes post-game that suggest he’s annoyed with the team after this one. Given they ended the second half with 0 Shots on Target, we can understand his frustration. With Wolves up next, they’ll hope to get back Luke Shaw and bench sightings of Lisandro Martinez and Casemiro will give some reasons for optimism too.

---

Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.