The Overthinking Roundup: GW10

In which Eddie Nketiah did an Erling Haaland impression, Erling Haaland did an Eddie Nketiah impression and Chelsea and United lost again.

The Roundup is back. Did you miss us? Andrew’s honeymoon is over (and boy did United rub it in), Gordon’s trip into the jungle passed with minimal injury, and the Premier League gifted us another week of games.

This Fantrax slate was fairly unusual, with a lot of big name players not even threatening the top-30, so there’s a fair bit to talk about. With the restrictions of email length limits, that means a shorter intro. But, as usual, we will go through each game in the free-section and then offer Transaction advice to our paid subscribers at the bottom.

So let’s get on to the good stuff.

Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Tottenham

It’s probably fair to say that the first game of the weekend took a little while to warm up. It didn’t really come to life until the second half and then for most of that half (certainly from the point the second goal went in) it looked like a procession for Tottenham. In reality, it was, despite Jordan Ayew’s (15) late goal. Ayew has been an interesting player this season, layering occasional relevant performances with a whole bunch of stinkers. It’s giving him a fairly healthy average xFpts (9.12) but, as often can happen with averages, the danger is the variance and he’s put in a fair number of neutral or negative WAR performances this season already. He’s still quite hard to trust on a game by game basis with the majority of his production coming from Goal / Assist points. And this Palace team which is missing most of the attacking x-factor talent is not one I’m confident making goal-prediction swings at. Notably post-game Roy Hodgson was critical of the depth in his squad, bemoaning having to turn to Matheus Franca (2) and Jesurun Rak-Sakyi (1) to try to change the game. Whilst not likely to win him any motivational speaker of the year awards, it is a fair comment from Roy, given he’s having to turn to prospect players with basically no top level experience on a weekly basis. I know that there’s a desire for Franca to be good, but it feels like a giant step up from what he’s done so far to make anything happen in this Palace team.

For Spurs this was an efficient dispatch of what, in previous Spurs iterations, would probably have been a banana skin between them and three points. But on the back of Son Heung-Min (14) and James Maddison (12), they showed too much for their opposition to handle. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before. Though it ended up being a pretty quiet afternoon for Dejan Kulusevski (4) and Richarlison (4), this was more a function of Palace defending their box well than any particular bad play from either attacker. Palace gave up four shots in the box, two fell to Maddison, two fell to Son. There’s definitely tiers of confidence when it comes to Tottenham forwards (with Maddison and Son a clear top, ahead of everyone else), but there’s no major reason for extra worry from this game. Another week at the top for Ange’s Spurs. They get Chelsea next, eager to prove a point and the form-guide would suggest you start all your Spurs attackers in that one.

Chelsea 0 - 2 Brentford

For 30 minutes of this tie, Cole Palmer (10) looked certain to make something happen. Not at all fazed by the potential jinxing we gave him in naming him Chelsea’s most important Fantrax player in the Preview, he was putting threatening pass after threatening pass behind the Brentford defensive line. Marc Cucurella (7.5) in particular will feel that he should have done better with his chance on 19 minutes, putting it straight into the grateful hands of the Brentford keeper, rather than into a corner, from just a few yards out. It was one of two good chances for the left back in the game and Chelsea would probably have preferred the two to fall to almost any other player on the pitch. That said, this was another in a line of fairly good performances from the Spanish full-back who seems to have rediscovered at least useful form.

Unfortunately for Chelsea, after that first 30 minutes, Brentford seemed to adjust to Palmer and there wasn’t really any other plan to get the ball into threatening positions. Raheem Sterling (7.5) has shifted to the left side of the Chelsea attack in recent games and feels more peripheral in that position than the right-wing position he had started the season so well in. Noni Madueke (4) finally got a start but continues to be pretty ineffective for large stretches of the game. Despite the obvious talent, we would imagine Pochettino will not be calling his number again once he has more attacking names fit. The fact that he doesn’t led to Chelsea bringing on Ian Maatsen (1.5), Lesley Ugochukwu (1.5), and Deivid Washington (0.5) when trying to chase down a game. Maatsen in particular had a rough outing, beaten far too easily in the air for Brentford’s second goal, but it would be incredibly harsh to place any actual blame on the shoulders of a left-back, new to this level, who was asked to play three positions in 22 minutes of game time.

For Brentford, once they’d adjusted to Palmer, things got a lot more routine defensively. Kristoffer Ajer (16) and Ethan Pinnock (28.5) were both very good at the back, repelling hopeful ball after hopeful ball into the box from Chelsea. Pinnock added to his usual strong point-scoring by ghosting past Axel Disasi (-1) to head in Burnley’s opener. Pinnock has continued to be hugely consistent this season and was actually underperforming his xFpts numbers coming into the Gameweek. Brentford aren’t in the most pleasant run of fixtures, with West Ham, Liverpool, and Arsenal their next three, but they’re so good without the ball that even in the two games against top four contenders, you can probably start your rostered Brentford names.

Bournemouth 2 - 1 Burnley

Three points in this one could prove massive later in the season, so Bournemouth should be delighted that they edged this tight game to get the win, especially since Burnley took the lead through Charlie Taylor (7.5) who hit the sweetest of strikes from the edge of the box after a set piece. Their luck deserted them from that point on. A late disallowed goal from half-time substitute Jay Rodriguez (0) which required a whole bunch of VAR line-drawing and a point-blank save from Bournemouth from a corner which Sander Berge (5) was unable to turn goalwards on the rebound couldn’t make up for the run of errors that lead to Phillip Billing (15.5) winning the ball in the Burnley third and making easy work of lobbing James Trafford (9.5) from long-range. When you’re already at a disadvantage in terms of talent on the pitch and resources compared to those clubs around you, you need to play mistake-free football and have the bounces go your way. Ten games in and Burnley are struggling to do that.

For Bournemouth, the big positive has to be the performance of Alex Scott (8.5), signed as part of a central-midfield overhaul and completing 90 minutes for the first time as a Bournemouth player this weekend. He looked tidy on the ball and certainly not out of place in the Premier League. Most intriguingly for Fantrax, he also took a number of set pieces, which increases his value and slightly reduces that of Marcus Tavernier (9.5). Bournemouth now sit with 6 points after 10 games and get Manchester City and Newcastle in the next two weeks. As we’ve said before, something needs to start clicking for them soon. Their current pace would almost definitely not keep a team up in most Premier League seasons. Perhaps the youthful talent Alex Scott brings to the side can be a catalyst for them. Just maybe wait a couple weeks before betting on them.

Arsenal 5 - 0 Sheffield United

In the Preview we talked about wanting to see rotation from Mikel Arteta. We did get some, though maybe not the rotation we expected. Bukayo Saka (10) and Gabriel Martinelli (13) both started, alongside Eddie Nketiah (34). The only non-enforced rotation in the attacking group was Emile Smith-Rowe (13) making a start ahead of Martin Odegaard. Our rationale for rotation was mostly based around Arsenal having far too much firepower for this Sheffield United side. And boy did they prove it on Saturday. Nketiah showed why he’s a top handcuff to (the oft-injured) Gabriel Jesus, putting on a masterclass of what a centre forward will do to you if you’re not able to get tight and make things difficult for him. His movement, touch and finishing were all of the highest quality this weekend and if you were unfortunate enough to be facing his 34 points, you probably lost your matchup. He finished with over 2 xGOT. Even against Sheffield United, that’s impressive stuff. It seem as though the striker spot is his once again for the foreseeable future, with Jesus expected out for a period of time. If you’ve got him, you’re starting him, even in matchups like Newcastle away, where Arsenal travel next.

The other notable Arsenal story: they won another penalty, gave it to another different player. Fabio Vieira (13) took the penalty, scored the penalty and, although you might be disappointed by that choice of taker, by that point Arsenal had taken just about everyone else off the field.

I would normally try to write something positive about Sheffield United, but they didn’t give me much to work with. They had 0.03 xG in this game. One of their two shots was from halfway by Gustavo Hamer (5.5) and almost went for a throw-in. In a few weeks time, they get Bournemouth and Burnley back-to-back and that feels season defining already. Until then, target them relentlessly as opposition and don’t get tempted into starting any of the players.

Wolves 2 - 2 Newcastle

What a gut punch to one of the feel-good stories of the Premier League and Fantrax season it was to see Pedro Neto (14) pull up with a hamstring problem whilst running on a fast break. The poor guy cannot catch a break. Gary O’Neil implied after the game that Neto was moving better than expected, which could imply a lower grade tear, but either way we’re going to see Wolves without their star forward for a while. It’s not an exaggeration to say that almost everything they have done this season has gone through Neto, so this is a huge blow to the production potential for just about the entire team.

But before we worry about whether they can score another goal this calendar year, we should highlight the positives in this game, where Hwang Hee-Chan (16.5) had a goal involvement for his fourth straight game and Wolves looked fairly competitive against this Newcastle side. Our policy of not wanting to debate refereeing decisions remains in place, but Jamaal Lascelles (-0.75) joins Andre Onana in our black book as “guys that stopped pre-season dark horse Sasa Kalajdzic (1) from getting a penalty.” Another draw in the record books for this fixture would’ve suited Wolves coming in, though they’d have preferred to pay a lesser price for it.

Lining up in their (definitely not Saudi-inspired, why would you suggest that??) green away kit, Newcastle were forced to play this one without the services of Alexander Isak. Recent news on Isak seems to imply that he might miss a few weeks with his groin injury. Thankfully for them, Callum Wilson (24) remains an impeccable 1B option for that centre forward spot. Though Wolves feel aggrieved about the penalty that he scored, his general game remains too much to handle for a lot of Premier League defenders. They will have to manage him incredibly carefully, given his injury concerns, but they also don’t have much in the way of alternative options to play up front. He’s plug and play throughout November, despite a fixture run that includes Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United. There was also a nice return to form in this one for Joelinton (12.5), who has been in and out of the side with injury and fitness issues for much of the season. With Tonali’s ban confirmed, they need the Brazilian back and in-form as soon as possible.

West Ham United 0 - 1 Everton

There is nothing like talk of a 12 point deduction to really light a fire under a team. If that 12 point deduction were to be applied tomorrow, Everton would be 7 points behind Luton, who would then sit in 17th. On the evidence we’ve seen from them since they’ve got most of the team healthy, that feels eminently possible to make back up. This wasn’t a vintage performance from them and they didn’t do a huge amount on the xG front today. But it makes a world of difference having Dominic Calvert-Lewin (16.5) in there for the chances you do make. He turned their one big chance of the game into a goal and that was plenty to see them through in a game that at times was a lot more fun than a 0.66 to 0.82 xG game would imply.

It was also nice to see the points continuing to flow for the Everton players that were coveted at draft time. Dwight McNeill (15) isn’t quite yet up to his top-5 levels from the second half of last season, but his average points have trended back up over the last 5 games, especially if you discount the Liverpool game in which he was subbed at half time following Ashley Young’s questionable tackling. And Jack Harrison (11.5) has been a lovely extra piece in midfield to add creativity. He’s at 2 assists in 3 starts, despite also coming off at half-time at Anfield. Everton host Brighton next, who are having challenges defensively. It feels another reasonable spot for the Everton names to produce to us.

For West Ham, the big news pre-match was the first Premier League start for Mo Kudus (-1.5). Unfortunately a yellow card and a whopping 8 (eight) dispossessions left him with negative points for those who were likely excited to plug him into lineups on Sunday. He’s a good player and he’ll have better days than this but you wouldn’t be overly surprised if Moyes turns to someone with more ball-security again for the next game against Brentford, who are adept at turning over the ball and creating chances from fast-breaks. Otherwise this was just a bit of a frustrating afternoon for West Ham and you’d imagine the normal names will bounce back pretty quickly. Particularly with games against Nottingham Forest and Burnley in the upcoming month.

Aston Villa 3 - 1 Luton Town

We challenged Douglas Luiz (16.5) to keep his weird home / away splits thing going. And he did. With an assist for John McGinn’s (14.5) goal, he finished with 15+ points for the fourth time in five home games. He plays away next week, then gets Fulham at home. Read into that what you will. Ollie Watkins (10) was an incredibly popular name to top the points charts this week but he somehow finished without a goal or assist to his name. He played well though, denied twice by Thomas Kaminski (3.25) from close range and with a number of smart touches that team-mates were unable to convert to goals. There’s no need to panic with Watkins at all, it was just Moussa Diaby’s (20.5) day to shine, with a goal and an assist to his name. With the form Villa are in, we wouldn’t bet against Ollie bouncing back as soon as next week against Nottingham Forest.

For Luton this was another fairly tough day out. Ex-Villa man Ross Barkey (10.5) was the pick of the Luton players, closely followed by ghost-of-Fantrax past Andros Townsend (7) who came on in the second half. These two have potential to do something based on their talent level, but at this point they’re just late-career journeymen who are unlikely to be every-week starters. If you have to plug them in for a week, that’s fine, but we don’t think there’s much call to still be holding either once Tuesday waivers come around. More concerning for Fantrax managers who held him after the Double Gameweek is that Alfie Doughty (4) has come back to Earth a little. He was never going to be able to maintain his 6 Key Pass per 90 pace. And today it was a yellow card that brought him back down from streamer-worthy. But he increasingly looks a matchup specific guy. And he’s about to play Liverpool. It will be a brave manager who doesn’t have him riding the bench for that one.

Brighton 1 - 1 Fulham

Starting with the positives for Brighton: Evan Ferguson (11.5). His finish was a show of pure-confidence. Placed perfectly into the corner from the edge of the box. Though he’s still got the ups and downs you’d expect from a man of his age, Brighton’ve got a gem of a player. Moving to the negatives, they’re still playing like they’ve got £200m of midfield talent in central midfield. And they don’t. We don’t get into much video analysis in these articles and that’s not going to change, but you can see in just three quick screengrabs where teams have been hurting Brighton this year.

The Brighton keeper passes the ball out through the Fulham pressure

An early flick around the corner attempt goes awry, again pressured by Fulham, and runs towards Alex Iwobi

Fulham win the ball high and Brighton’s defensive shape is a mess

Sure, Joao Palhinha’s (23.5) finish is still a tough chance. But game after game Brighton are surrendering these chances. And it’s one thing to lose the ball in dangerous areas to Chelsea or Liverpool who are expected to press you and will generally throw bodies at you no matter what, but if bottom-half teams like Fulham are no longer scared of pressing you then you really have to be able to play through it consistently. So far this season, they haven’t been able to.

For Fulham, Palhinha’s day would’ve been pretty big, even without the goal. He was all over the field winning tackles, making clearances and intercepting the ball. If he’s still processing the breakdown of his move to Bayern Munich in the Summer, it’s not showing. He was excellent. Harry Wilson (10.5) was credited the assist. Not sure we’d read loads into that being replicable. There were quiet days for Willian (4.5) and Andreas Pereira (3.5), which is not totally unexpected in a game where Fulham ceded 71% possession to their opponent. They weren’t really on the ball enough for their creative names to really rack up points. They play Manchester United next, which will be a very interesting barometer for both teams.

Liverpool 3 - 0 Nottingham Forest

We were very much on the Darwin Nunez (22.5) bandwagon coming into this season. Jurgen Klopp took a while to get to the same place, but now seems to trust the Uruguay International. He has a goal or an assist in every start he’s made this season, as well as multiple contributions from the bench. As Gakpo returns to full fitness, we’ve got our eye on who Klopp turns to in that spot.

We were slightly less in on the bandwagon for Dominic Szoboszlai (28.5), whose path to top level production seemed to have too many question marks over it for us to truly gamble at his ADP price. Those who showed the faith are being rewarded on a weekly basis at the moment. He came into the week with 12.45 xFpts / 90 and that will only have gone up this week, with his 4 Key Passes and 2 Assists propping up another monster week. Liverpool rode through the rough patch at the start of the season without dropping too many points and are starting to look far more settled now, even with having to use all of their depth to cover for injuries (Andy Robertson, Cody Gakpo), suspensions (Curtis Jones) or personal issues (Luis Diaz). They get Luton Town next and it feels as though a feast could be incoming there. Trent Alexander-Arnold (8.25) is the man most in need of that matchup and we’re hoping to see more from the star-defender.

For Forest, it was great to see Taiwo Awoniyi (0) healthy enough for the bench and getting 20 minutes into the legs. They really need him back. They’ve also lost Callum Hudson-Odoi and Chris Wood to hamstring issues, so this really was down to the barebones for them in attack, with Anthony Elanga (4) leading the line by himself. It wasn’t ever going to be a recipe for success. Their next tie is against Villa and that’s likely to come too soon for Awoniyi to start, so tread carefully with your Forest players for that one—even Morgan Gibbs-White (3).

Manchester United 0 - 3 Manchester City

With apologies to Andrew, we do have to talk about it. This was a brutal reminder for Manchester United of just how big the gap is between them and their noisy neighbours. Andre Onana (6.25) and, to a lesser extent, Harry Maguire (-2), both individually kept the score down at times but City were rampant. It was a shame that the scoring was opened in the manner it was, Rasmus Hojlund (6) guilty of some naivety with his grapple. But the outcome of this game felt inevitable from very early on. The issue for Manchester United and those who roster players from Manchester United is that there just doesn’t seem to be any real plan for how the ball is meant to end up in the opposition net. Bruno Fernandes (6) is a remarkably talented footballer (and even better Fantrax asset), but if your game plan in possession is simply “hope he does something,” that’s not going to be good enough to get up the Premier League table in 2023.

For City, Jack Grealish (9) coming back into the side was the biggest change from the previous few games. He didn’t necessarily show up in the Fantrax point tallies (he finished as the 10th highest scoring City player) but City looked more composed and threatening with him back in the side. If his fitness allows, we’d imagine he’ll retain the spot for the next game. The other (non-Haaland) player to shout out would be Bernardo Silva (18.5). Seemingly every Summer he’s drafted late because he’s rumoured to be on his way out, only to put up pretty good performances when he plays. This year appears no different. He was everywhere for much of the game on Sunday. And before we finish: yes, Erling Haaland (34) broke the trend of first-round names disappointing their managers this week with a massive game. He had 5 shots and a combined xG+xA of 2.49. United didn’t have any answer for him for most of the game. It has felt like there’s been an undercurrent of Haaland doubt in recent weeks. But he’s still at more than a goal a game this season and starting every week. It’ll be a tough ask for Bournemouth to come to the Etihad and prevent him from continuing that pace next week.

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We won’t cover totally obvious transactions that might be needed since we last wrote. E.g. Drop Sandro Tonali (if you still had him—we did tell you to sell him a few weeks back). But once more we’ll look at the less-obvious Transactions we’d have our eye on.