The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 6

In which Fulham and Palace play out a stunner, Luton lift themselves to a point, and Kieran Trippier outscores some entire real-life teams in Fantrax points

A slightly later edition of the Roundup this week, given the European matches saw fit to push most of the games this week into Sunday. They clearly have no respect for those of us who slog through trying to watch most of the matches. All the worse for the fact that, with the extra team in European Competition this season, we’ll be seeing more weeks like this.

We’ll always do everything we can to get these out ahead of Waiver runs. Just don’t be surprised if on packed Sunday weekends like this one, the later release schedule is common.

Anyways, logistical moans and excuses done, lets get on with the show.

Crystal Palace 0 - 0 Fulham

After an intro full of excuses, it’s often considered vital to put your best foot forward. We could open with any number of games featuring the European competition sides. We could’ve gone with the North London Derby. But instead, we’re starting at Selhurst Park. And boy was this one for the sickos and fans only. Combined, the two sides put together under 1 xG of chances. Not a single big chance was registered by Opta. Substitute Jean Philippe-Mateta (3) drew a good save from Bernd Leno (15.25) and it was so out of character with the rest of the game that I genuinely took a while to register it had happened.

All in all, it wasn’t an awful game for Fantrax specifically, given both sides benefitted from the Clean Sheet bonus. But it was pretty grim from the non-defenders. Willian (5.5) struggled to have the same impact he did on his return last week. Raul Jimenez (4.5) managed to generate 0.12 of xG (and somehow turn it into 0.04 of psxG). We’ve been gentle in suggesting that he was unlikely to return to form from the moment this move was announced. Six weeks in, we’re comfortable saying that starting him in 2023 is basically Fantrax self-flagellation. With five starts in the book, he’s contributed -0.07 wins to Fantrax rosters.

For Palace, you got reliable points out of Eberechi Eze (15), as usual. Everything good for Palace goes through him. But there’s not a tonne else to chase here until Michael Olise is back, especially if Odsonne Edouard (2.5) misses any time with injury. The CS bonus propped up strong days from Marc Guehi (12.5), Joachim Andersen (12), and Sam Johnstone (18), but they’ve got Manchester United, Nottingham Forest, and Newcastle in the next three, so betting on a CS repeat is probably not the most sensible move.

Luton Town 1 - 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers

A point is a point. And on the balance of things, Luton earned the right to draw level with fellow promoted sides Burnley and Sheffield United. As we’ve discussed in these roundups previously, we aren’t going to fixate on the red card or the penalty call, it’s not our thing. What we will talk a bit about is Alfie Doughty (16) who got his second start and really showed out creatively. He had four key passes prior to Luton gaining their man advantage, eventually finishing the day with five. In our pre-season preview, we highlighted Doughty as the main Luton player we were interested in and we’ve been a little disappointed that he’s been out of the side. He’s not necessarily a “must roster” guy, but he holds genuine streamer value. We were a little less enthused with Carlton Morris (16.5) but his second penalty of the year was a reminder that set piece roles can elevate players. Outside of the penalty, he’s still around 0.2 xG per 90. It’s fine. But most weeks you can probably find something more reliable. That said, the upcoming Double Gameweek does present a solid window to start him (and other Luton assets).

It’s not easy to review Wolves every week, when all we ever seem to be able to say is “Pedro Neto (15) is very good and the only reason this team isn’t right at the bottom in the relegation race.”

Actually, thinking about it, maybe it is easy. Too easy really. A red card is an outlier event. But they had 11 men on the field against Luton for 40 minutes and generated nothing. Not a single shot. In the second half, they had a fairly big Max Kilman (15.75) chance saved and Neto scored his solo goal but they were outshot, out-xG’d, out-worked and got away with it because Luton didn’t have it in them to punish them. Goal scorer needed. We are huge Neto fans but he won’t be able to bail them out every single week.

Manchester City 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest

Rodri deciding to take three games off will make the upcoming Manchester City vs Arsenal game more interesting, so we will thank him for that. It didn’t do a tonne for the entertainment value of this tie, nor did it help the Fantrax value of some of the normally reliable City forwards like Julian Alvarez (5). Those who drafted Alvarez got him at a fifth round or later price in a lot of leagues, so if this is as bad as it gets for him, you should still be delighted. It was also nice to see Phil Foden (20) on the scoresheet as a reminder of the explosiveness he offers Fantrax managers when he starts games. But really, this game didn’t have a tonne to talk about in it. City managed the game pretty well once they went down to ten men and, although Forest did enjoy the better of the second half, City will likely be pretty happy with only really allowing one significant chance (from Taiwo Awoniyi (2.5) whose double digit streak is now ended).

For Forest the red card presented them something of a lifeline, given they only mustered a single chance in the first half (a Morgan Gibbs-White (-1) free-kick that ended up off-target). We’re hoping that the next few games see more adventurous starting lineups for them, given they’ve got Brentford, Crystal Palace and Luton in the next three. Although Brentford is a tough fixture and Palace have been reasonably ok this year too, if Forest have dreams of being comfortably mid-table this season, they need to be at least competitive in those three ties.

Brentford 1 - 3 Everton

Who had James Tarkowski (34) racking up a goal, an assist and four key passes in this ‘revenge game’ narrative matchup with his old club Brentford? We certainly did not. An Abdoulaye Doucoure (14) positive performance, on the other hand, we very much did call. And the day could’ve been even bigger, as he saw a 27th minute chance deflect off the cross-bar. Though this wasn’t a huge day on the xG front for him, it was nice for once that he was over-performing his numbers. He’s a Dyche mainstay and retains starter value as long as he’s in the side. It was also good to see Dwight McNeil (13) back into double figures, popping up with an assist from a corner (a reminder that set-piece taker on a Dyche side is a hugely valuable role). And if they thought the optimism couldn’t grow any further, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (11.5) popped up off the bench to round out the win. We’ve said week after week here that Everton have been playing better than their results. They’ve finally shown that they can get the goals to prove it this week and they get to play Luton Town and Bournemouth at home as their next two fixtures. Given the points they’ve already dropped, those look like must-win games. And with the positivity they can take from this one, we’re not betting against them.

It’s tough to fully know what to make of Brentford here. One overly simplistic reading of the game we’ve seen online is that they’re just not a team that have particularly great ideas of what to do if you let them have the ball. But they did have more of the ball in the games against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth and were fine (at least Fantrax-wise). From watching, they seemed to be caught off guard by the speed at which Everton started the game and never really caught up to it. In their next four games, they get to face perpetual crisis clubs Manchester United and Chelsea, as well as taking a visit from Burnley. We’ll learn a fair bit about them in that run. But unless you think Rico Henry was the Jenga piece holding it all together, there’s no reason to feel you should drop anyone you were previously starting from the Bees.

Burnley 0 - 1 Manchester United

We feel worse about both sides after this game. United did scrape together four warm bodies to play at the back (just about), which was one of our Big Questions going into the week. It included Jonny Evans (21) who almost had a giant Fantrax day, with a goal ruled out alongside the assist he did manage, despite the fact he has now featured in two more games in 2023 than anyone could ever have imagined (two). Finding the positives, this game reminded us why Bruno Fernandes (22.5) is so valuable. He’s near enough the entire attack. We also saw Raphael Varane make it on the field which is seriously needed. That’s about as much as we can find for a United side that really couldn’t have complained had it left Turf Moor with just a point.

Unfortunately for Burnley, who were Lyle Foster-less, they couldn’t get that equaliser and ending the game with Jay Rodriguez (1) on the field isn’t going to get you much joy. Zeki Amdouni (5) had the pick of the chances for the Clarets, striking the post early in the game but disappointed anyone gambling on him for Fantrax. A similar story for Luca Koleosho (3) who was unable to turn the pace and guile he’s flashed the last few games into anything meaningful for the Fantrax tally. If you offered a Burnley fan to out xG Manchester United with 60% possession, they’d have bitten your hand off before the season. But that’s shorn of the context of the game which really we suspect they will feel disappointed by. A trip to Newcastle is next, who just showed that there’s no room for sentimentality in the Premier League (more on that later). Come on Vincent, show us something.

Arsenal 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur

Ok. How many of you scrolled straight here? Go back and read the bit about Crystal Palace and Fulham. I had to watch it, it’s the least you could do!

The North London Derby was it’s usual fun self, with the spoils shared between the sides in a mostly even tie. Before we get to the Fantrax of it all, we probably need to talk about the team selections. Tottenham mostly retained the lineup that has been starting every week, but with one change: Brennan Johnson (5) was preferred to Manor Solomon and Richarlison. This was a big call from Ange and we would say the results were ok. He had 3 shots for 0.59 xG which, for your full debut in a North London Derby, is pretty good. His exit at 63 minutes was enforced with a hamstring injury, so we will have to wait a little while to see if Johnson is the long-term plan at LW this season. Starting a natural winger there did mean we saw Son (26) retain the striker role. No complaints when it comes to output, with the Spurs man turning 0.51 xG into 2 goals. Son is often the coupon-buster when it comes to xG analysis (and in fact his xGOT, which takes into account where he’s placing the finish credits him with a whopping 1.81). It’s nice to see him back and performing. We’ve no superlatives left for the Fantrax impact of James Maddison (20.5). Just look at the points tallies. He doesn’t seem worried about his knee, so neither are we. We advised against starting defenders, but can’t say we saw the Cristian Romero (-2.5) own goal coming. In fact, three Spurs defensive starters finished with negative points on the day. Probably a blip, but worth keeping in mind with Liverpool next up.

The Arsenal lineup might’ve been even less likely to predict at the start of the season, but was mostly enforced by absentees. The big decision of the day was not starting Kai Havertz (2), though he joined the game at half-time. We’re not going to beat up on Havertz in a game he didn’t start, but the fact he wasn’t considered an option in midfield or attack, does give us a view of his pecking order position at the moment. He’s just about positive on the WAR front this season (0.03 in 4 games) but the experiment as an 8 doesn’t seem to make him any more reliable for Fantrax scoring, and if he’s not in the lineup every week, it’s going to be hard to justify rostering him as anything more than a streamer. Bukayo Saka (33) is still as reliable as they come, though. He headlines an otherwise fairly forgettable Arsenal Fantrax stat sheet. They get Bournemouth next, where things should be back to normal, then a visit from a Rodri-less Manchester City.

Brighton 3 - 1 Bournemouth

It’s probably reassuring that Brighton weren’t able to rotate half the team and cruise to a win again this weekend. In the first half of this South Coast not-quite-derby, Brighton had a whole lot of the ball and did not a huge amount. They went in even thanks to a Milos Kerkez’s (-7.5) Own Goal but it was pretty uninspired. De Zerbi rang the changes at half-time, restoring Kaoru Mitoma (23) and Ansu Fati (0.5) from their Thursday night lineup. Safe to say it worked. Mitoma had his first goal on 46 minutes and a second in the 76th to secure the points. If you bet on the rotated guys as a streaming option, it wasn’t all bad. We tipped Simon Adingra (9) as a must-grab guy on waivers and he was solid, if lacking in the goal contributions required to return a truly big day. Brighton are going to have to navigate this rotation headache all season, so the depth will be a big thing for them.

Bournemouth brought Justin Kluivert (2.5) in as the only change from the side that drew with Chelsea. It is fair to question how well that change worked for them, given Kluivert managed just 0.02 npxG+xa in the tie. Dango Ouattara (4) didn’t do loads more with the 30 minutes he had on the pitch, but did at least get a shot to go with his key pass. It was the other wing where we saw some fantasy success, with Marcus Tavernier (9.5) doing well with his 60 minutes on the pitch. Tavernier has been a pretty solid Fantrax player in the games he’s been healthy. He retains streamer value, but early substitutions are likely to be his crutch all season long even if he stays healthy. They’re still not getting out their new-look midfield, though positive noises around Alex Scott’s return to training give us at least a hint that they aren’t far away from it. It won’t come in time for the visit of Arsenal next week and we are backing away from starting all but Dominic Solanke (12.5) in that one.

Chelsea 0 - 1 Aston Villa

The third part of this week’s red card trilogy saw Chelsea host Aston Villa. Even though the red card was a big factor in how the game ended, the whole thing was just a bit muted. Aston Villa’s tactics against Newcastle, Liverpool, and the first half this weekend against Chelsea were really not great. Thankfully they were playing the one team who couldn’t punish their total lack of adventure. Chelsea huffed and puffed and . . . didn’t do much in the end. It was probably Mykhailo Mudryk’s (6) best game in a Chelsea shirt. And that amounted to 6 Fantrax points and 0.21 xG + xA. And at the back, Thiago Silva (5.25) is increasingly looking like a problem for this side in fairly apparent ways, with another involvement in the build-up to the opposition goal today. Other than the fact he can communicate in French with Axel Disasi (3.25) and Malo Gusto (-4.75), it’s not clear to us why he is still an every-week name on the team-sheet at this point. A wonderful career but probably holding back a number of his team-mates. We also saw Nicolas Jackson (3.5) pick up his 5th yellow card in 6 games. Taking a 2 point hit every week is not a way to endear yourself to Fantrax managers, nor Mauricio Pochettino. Unfortunately for Jackson, a change to the Premier League rules this offseason means that he cannot serve his suspension in Chelsea’s midweek EFL Cup match and must miss a league outing. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the forward position in that game. The matchup with Fulham would normally be one to target, but Chelsea only have Armando Broja available and he’s just back from a long injury layoff. Given where it falls in the gameweek, you’d be best not gambling and staying well away from it.

With Villa, I haven’t got a lot to say really. Ollie Watkins (13) broke his goal drought, which we saw was coming a mile off from his accumulated xG data, and they ended with Clean Sheet boosts across the defence. Boubacar Kamara (16) was also credited with 4 Key Passes (which was great for his points this week) for 0.05 combined xGA (which is not for his chances of repeating it). But the big game tactics could easily have left us with no substantial points from our Villa assets and we’re really hopeful the mould is different for their trip to Brighton next weekend.

Liverpool 3 - 1 West Ham United

Virgil Van Dijk (27.25) returned with a bang to the starting lineup in this matchup. His whopping 12 aerials probably tells you quite a bit about what type of game this was for the Liverpool defenders. But he also popped up with two Key Passes and an Assist. Liverpool really need him to stay in the side and hit form. The other big story here, other than Mo Salah (22) remaining as consistent as they come, was the selection of Darwin Nunez (14.5) ahead of Cody Gakpo (3) and Diogo Jota (10.5). Darwin treated us to the full experience. Three shots for 0.86 xG, a big miss from 12 yards and a lovely goal, as well as a (maybe not entirely deliberate) touch in the build-up to Salah being fouled for the penalty to open the scoring. The man is box-office. Long may it continue. It all looked a bit better this week for Liverpool and they’ve given themselves every reason for optimism with their performances now catching up to their results. Eventually I’m sure they’ll even get a second Clean Sheet too.

We’ve commented a few times at how much we approve of West Ham choosing to basically funnel their Fantrax points through the same few players every week. Jarrod Bowen (16), James Ward-Prowse (11.5), and Lucas Paqueta (10.5) are always right up there for the Hammers. This wasn’t a vintage week for them, but it was the first with a European hangover, against tough opposition. They bounce back from this mini-run of facing Manchester City and Liverpool with a very friendly matchup with Sheffield United.

Sheffield United 0 - 8 Newcastle United

So about Sheffield United . . .

I don’t honestly know if I can say a lot here that isn’t obvious from the numbers and the highlights. Kieran Trippier (44.5) took a third of the game off and still had three assists. Twelve (12) Newcastle players were in double figures. Five were over 20. If you started one or more of these guys, you probably won your week (unless you were lucky enough to face the others). If we did have a takeaway from this, it’s that you will need to beware the outlier here in any eyeballing of future average stats from these Newcastle guys. They’re probably not going to do this again, though the reverse fixture is April 27th, if you’re worried about who you might be facing that week.

If you’re Sheffield United, you need to just shake this off and go again. There’s nothing else to be said. If you were unlucky enough to start a Sheffield United defender here, you almost definitely finished with around -10 points from them. It probably won’t happen again, but Newcastle did rack up 3.92 xG from 22 shots. Against that level and quality of bombardment, it’s always going to be ugly, even if it wouldn’t get as high as 8 on the box-score most weeks.

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Be ready to be offered every single member of that Newcastle starting eleven in exchange for your first round pick…