The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 14

In which a wild Sunday full of goals had us frantically trying to get this out on time!

Welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 14.

This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers.

With the midweek fixtures and upcoming festive schedule, there will be some adjustments to the regular Preview / Roundup formats for the next few editions. This is purely so that we can get them out when there’s a game every 48 hours. Fear not, the normal formats will return whenever we have normal Gameweeks!

As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe.

Arsenal 2 - 1 Wolves

That’s more like it, Mikel. A fairly attacking Arsenal lineup hosted Wolves on Saturday, started fast and were two goals up within fifteen minutes. Although Wolves scored late in the game to suggest a possible late-twist, truthfully this was pretty comfortable for Arsenal. You get no award for knowing who topped the Fantrax points for Arsenal in this one, given he does it every week. But it was great to have Martin Odegaard (24) back in the mix. His Goal is what pushed him to the top-end points total, but it was his 6 Key Passes that we’re most glad to see. Arsenal are a better side when they’re able to get him on the ball and creating chances and his 0.78 xA led the game this weekend. This was also a second game in-a-row of double figure returns for Takehiro Tomiyasu (18.5) who provided the Assist for Bukayo Saka’s (26.5) early goal. His roster percentage has jumped a massive 20% in the latest Fantrax numbers but, having come off injured in this one, we’ll have to watch to see if he is available again in midweek when Arsenal face Luton. That’s a juicy matchup for whoever starts. Ben White (-0.75) would be the obvious beneficiary, taking back his early season spot, if Tomiyasu is unable to go.

It’s a fun statistical oddity when you have a Goalkeeper play in a 2-1 loss and they get a Clean Sheet. But that’s exactly what happened for Daniel Bentley (16.5) this week, coming on after Jose Sa (-1) tweaked his back. No one rostered Bentley, naturally, and Sa is reportedly likely to return in midweek, so Bentley is probably set to finish this season as the Fantasy Goalkeeper with the highest PPG. A fitting reminder why that column in the Players tab isn’t particularly helpful! This long diversion into talking about a substitute goalkeeper probably tells you all you need to know about Wolves’ Fantrax output this week. Matheus Cunha (12.5) scored from a Nelson Semedo (10.5) Assist. If you started anyone else, you were likely disappointed. Wolves get Burnley in midweek, followed by Nottingham Forest. And they’ll be hoping before too long that they can get Pedro Neto back on the field, with Gary O’Neil confirming that the winger is back training. Not a moment too soon for his Fantrax managers.

Brentford 3 - 1 Luton

Thomas Frank is a coach who knows how to set up a team defensively. It’s not that Luton are a side that anyone expects to score lots of goals, but at half-time in this one, Brentford had allowed 0 Shots. That’s a very rare thing to see. For their part, Brentford had taken 11 by that same point. Football 101 tells us that shots are important. And with their 13th Shot, just minutes after play restarted, Neal Maupay (19.5) put Brentford ahead. 7 Minutes (and 4 Shots) later, Ben Mee (28) headed them into a two-goal lead.

To their credit, Luton did eventually decide that they too should do some shooting, and Jacob Brown (15) came off the bench to score for the second game running. Truthfully though, it was too little too late. Ross Barkley (10) was the only other Luton player of note (and the only starter), as their attacking threat was entirely suffocated by the Londoners. Shandon Baptiste (17) eventually restored the two-goal cushion (with Shot number 23 for anyone enjoying this bit) but, even without it, it didn’t necessarily feel like Brentford were ever at risk of letting points slip in this game. Seeing Brentford sitting 11th in the League Table after this game feels almost double-take worthy. They feel like they’re having a better season than that. That said, they play Brighton in midweek, knowing that a win there would likely see them go above the Seagulls. We mentioned previously that Luton play Arsenal. And if they thought Brentford were stingy with giving up shots, wait till they meet Arsenal. Luton names are a strong avoid in midweek.

Burnley 5 - 0 Sheffield United

There is no downplaying that this was a massive game for both of these sides. And Burnley, who had already beaten Luton and lost to Everton and Bournemouth, really needed to get something to lift them from the bottom of the Premier League table. Despite being below Sheffield United in the table, though, we liked their chances in the Preview. It would be a lie to say we saw it being quite this easy, though. Oli McBurnie’s (-7) red card was a big moment in the game, but it would be a lie to say that Sheffield United had been competitive up to that point. They were already 2-0 down, having created nothing of note. Instead, we saw Burnley remind everyone why they were just so effective in the Championship. When the talent levels aren’t stacked against them, they can create chances and put teams away. There’s really not a lot to talk about from the Sheffield United perspective here. They went behind almost instantly and really showed no signs of life from that point onwards. And after morale-damaging losses now to two of their relegation rivals, they get to host Liverpool in midweek.

The credit for Sheffield United’s struggles in this game specifically though should go primarily to Burnley. In the Preview we highlighted that 10 Burnley players were projected for double figure points. And we were nervous of that, recommending to target the attacking names like Zeki Amdouni (25.5) and Luca Koleosho (14.5) and to leave the defenders to the wire. Turns out the projections knew best. Exactly 10 Burnley players finished with 10 or more points. Of the starting lineup only Sander Berge (6.5), facing his old club, didn’t get into double figures. They played really good attacking football this weekend and for those who targeted their players to stream, they rewarded us basically across the board. Good stuff. We get to see them away at Wolves next and, although that’s a tricky fixture, Burnley need to start picking up occasional points from these games to try to keep pace with 17th. They’re certainly underdogs in that contest but they’re at least underdogs with confidence.

Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Everton

With Dominic Calvert-Lewin unavailable, there had to be a worry whether Everton would slip back to the wasteful habits that defined their early-season games. But instead, they went to Nottingham, played something of a stinker in terms of chance creation, but saw Dwight McNeil (14) convert a low-percentage chance (0.06 xG) to give them a 1-0 lead that they could defend and see out the game. A different script; one that they won’t want to use often. But a vital three points. As you might expect in a game with few chances and not a lot of goals, the defenders lead the way here for Everton in Fantrax scoring. James Tarkowski (19.75) in particular had another really nice day with 9 Clearances and 8 Aerials Won underlining the kind of game this was. All of Everton’s back four hit double figures, primarily due to the Clean Sheet. But we’re going to highlight Vitalii Mykolenko (12.25) once again, who bounced back nicely from a negative score against Manchester United. He has 4 double-figure Fantrax point games in his last 5 and just looks like an every-week starter at this point. He gets tough matchups with Newcastle United and Chelsea over the next week but Sean Dyche is not a man who is afraid of a game where he doesn’t have the ball. If Everton can frustrate one or both of those two sides, we’d bet on Mykolenko being a solid points scorer once more.

For Forest, losing Taiwo Awoniyi just guts the fun out of this side. Chris Wood (5.5) had his time for Fantrax (who can forget the Wood and Ashley Barnes years) but they feel a long time ago now. Things weren’t terrible for Forest scoring wise. Ryan Yates (15) managed to get himself into double figures without any goal contribution or Clean Sheet, which is always impressive. But, given it’s his first double figure return of the season, it feels unlikely to be a sign of anything more than a lucky day variance wise. We can’t imagine he was started anywhere, though. In other bad injury news for Forest, Willy Boly (7.25) was only able to make it to half-time before being withdrawn and could be set for some time on the sidelines. That meant a return for Felipe (2.75) who was a really useful Fantrax player last year. He’s worth monitoring, particularly as Forest have Fulham and Wolves in their next two fixtures, but be wary of Forest’s habit of rotating these defenders this season and don’t get too attached.

Newcastle United 1 - 0 Manchester United

Andre Onana (8) had the privilege of being named in our Transactions article last week. I’m not sure if we’ve featured a Goalkeeper before. And Andrew was repaid for his selection by a questionable performance from Onana in the Champions League. But, despite his struggles in Europe, Onana remains pretty consistent in the Premier League for United as their second-highest scoring player, behind Bruno Fernandes (3). Since the start of November, he’s averaged 15 Fpts per Start. And he was their highest-scorer this week too, as United really struggled at St James’s Park. Newcastle had a disappointing midweek but shrugged it off quickly, dominating this one in basically every stat category. They had more of the ball, they created 22 Shots (4 Shots on Target) for 4 Big Chances and 2.5 xG and they basically smothered United defensively, allowing only 8 Shots and 0.48 xGA. Off the back of the game at Chelsea, this was another league result that showed Newcastle’s resolve. Anthony Gordon (21) scored again, so will no doubt get a lot of the attention. We’ve been very reserved on Gordon so far but he’s creeped his way up to the 0.53 xG+xAG mark this year and that is legitimately good in terms of goal output. Openly, I still have doubts about him over the long term, but he looks to be playing an “Almiron-like” role for this Newcastle side and, much as with Miguel Almiron (6) last year, we don’t really care as long as the goals keep coming.

Newcastle also saw another strong performance from Tino Livramento (13) at left-back, who seems to have locked down that role in the absence of Dan Burn. As we called out a few weeks back, he’s an every week set and forget as long as he’s cracked this lineup. The midfield is also looking strong with Lewis Miley (6) looking a plus in real football terms. It’s letting Joelinton (19.5) do his 2022 thing again and he’s now put up double figure scores in 4 of his last 5. Given he almost definitely should’ve scored another goal last time out, it could have been ever bigger.

For United we have many questions. Starting with Luke Shaw (7) at CB felt like an odd move (though one we saw at the start of the season too). The impact of playing Diogo Dalot (3.5) at LB in this one was noticeable. Though he did have reasonable defensive numbers, he didn’t make a single pass into the final third, nor receive the ball in the opposition box. Shaw is one of the most effective ball progressing left backs in the league and placing him in a position where he can’t do that felt like United tying a hand behind their back before entering a boxing ring. Our big worry with United was that their form against the bottom of the table was covering up a lot of flaws. Those flaws feel as exposed as ever after the two games in the last week. They get a game against Chelsea next who, for all the mistakes the West Londoners have made in games this year, are not an easy opposition. They’ll need to show something different in that game to have any chance of leaving with points.

Bournemouth 2 - 2 Aston Villa

OK Bournemouth. We said we’d start taking you seriously once you showed something. Three straight games with 2+ xG is something. That a point here feels like they were unfortunate feels a wild thing to say, but Aston Villa didn’t really do a lot to deserve their point. They just happen to have Ollie Watkins (24) who is able to provide magic at the drop of hat against pretty much anyone. This was a slightly rotated lineup for Villa with Moussa Diaby (9) notably missing out on the starting lineup and Youri Tielemans (7) drawing a rare start. But it wasn’t a weak lineup by any stretch. Bournemouth were just quite good. They didn’t have a lot of the ball, but they were able to turn the possession they did have (37%) into 15 Shots and 4 Big Chances for 2.02 xG. Against a side that are regularly spoken about as attempting to break into the Top 5 spots, that’s a remarkable output. That it comes not long after doing similar to (a Bruno Guimaraes-less) Newcastle and putting Sheffield United to the sword suggests signs of a corner perhaps being turned for Andoni Iraola. And boy, did he need one.

Villa were entirely at fault for going behind, with a loose pass from centre back going straight to Ryan Christie (23) who was able to take a touch and play in Antoine Semenyo (12.5) for a goal after just ten minutes. Leon Bailey (14) was able to level the score just ten minutes later and almost immediately after that Diego Carlos (1.75) thought that he had given Villa the lead after a set-piece before VAR intervened. But Bournemouth were still the better team throughout the first half. They were even better in the second and really ought to have seen this one out. And they came close to taking the lead with what would’ve been a second goal in 2 games for Justin Kluivert (4.5) but for a remarkable recovering tackle from Ezri Konsa (7.5). It’s rare that an individual tackle is noteworthy enough to mention here unless it earns a red card. This one was just that good. Eventually a second goal did come for Bournemouth though. We mentioned last week how strange it was that Dominic Solanke (16) only finished with 2 points as Bournemouth dominated Sheffield United, having seen good xG totals undercut by seeing his shots go off target. He bounced back here with a well taken Goal from a Milos Kerkez (13.25) ball across goal and almost added a second from close-range not long after. It was a really good centre-forward performance from Solanke once again and he would’ve been deserving of being the match-winner. But Watkins had other ideas, needing every sinew of neck muscle to covert Diaby’s cross. With a visit from Manchester City up next, Villa will be glad of the boost to confidence that late goal undoubtedly would provide but they’ll need to be sharper in defence than this if they’re going to compete with City.

Chelsea 3 - 2 Brighton

We talked about this one in the Preview too. In particular, highlighting that it was unlikely either team would keep a Clean Sheet. Sure enough, this one was a 5 Goal game that had plenty of excitement at both ends of the pitch. A lot happened, so trying to break it down for Fantrax isn’t particularly easy. We’ll try to explain the game a little here, so you can understand how the points splits happened. Chelsea were probably the better side for the first half, deserving of a half-time lead. But, for the second game running, they went down to ten men. Chelsea fans would’ve been forgiven for feeling an ominous sense of deja vu. But unlike the Newcastle game, they had a lead to defend here and they did it pretty well for the most part, despite a late scare.

Chelsea got their two goals from set-pieces, which is maybe not overly surprising given the height at their disposal. The predicted “big bloke” back four we expected in the preview turned out to be correct and it gave Chelsea considerable firepower from set-plays. For the first goal, we saw Benoit Badiashile (9) playing a first ball back across for Enzo Fernandez (24.5) to head the ball into the net. For the second, Nicolas Jackson (8) got the ball across for Levi Colwill (13). It seemed like Brighton had no answer for the physicality and we wouldn’t have been overly surprised if Chelsea continued this approach, were it not for Conor Gallagher (-4.5) getting himself a (pretty naive) second yellow card for a challenge from behind Billy Gilmour (3.5). Given Facundo Buonanotte (15) had just scored to narrow the deficit, this could’ve been a big turning point.

Except it just wasn’t. Brighton clearly had a game plan to get the ball to the wide players and to get first-time / early crosses across the face of goal. But, with Chelsea defending narrow with lots of capable defenders, they were able to get to the ball first time and again. There was no sign of a Plan B and, although Chelsea occasionally flirted with letting things get even tougher with Moises Caicedo (3) finding the referee in a generous mood to avoid a second-yellow of his own, Brighton couldn’t create much. For Chelsea, Jackson has had his ups and downs this year but was very effective as a hold-up man with his back to the defenders here. Before he exited the game (in a slightly confusing substitution) he did have another telling contribution. On a fast-counter, Raheem Sterling (2) played it to Jackson wide left and he was able to play the ball for an on-rushing Mykhailo Mudryk (11) to run towards goal. James Milner (13), who was given a run-around by Mudryk on his debut for Chelsea, could do nothing but take the Ukrainian’s ankles. With Cole Palmer (5) rested following a knock, Enzo took it for his second goal (further confirming this penalty taking hierarchy). This was another up and down performance for Mudryk overall and we’re still really unsure he’s got much long-term Fantrax value. But with Gallagher out next game, it’s quite likely he gets the nod against Manchester United again.

Brighton did finally threaten late in the game, which is where most of their attacking numbers came from. Chelsea’s subs really disrupted their shape and ability to get out from defence. And, despite their large centre-back group, their fragility from set-pieces showed itself once more, with Joao Pedro (12) getting ahead of Armando Broja (0) and Colwill to head a corner in. His streak of scoring goals from the bench continues. We will likely have to think of an end-of-season award for him at this rate. And there was time for one last bit of drama when, in the final minutes, the referee pointed to the penalty spot following a Brighton cross. The VAR intervened to confirm that the ball hit Colwill’s face and the game fizzled out from there. We didn’t learn too much about either side here really to take into the next games. But it was certainly a breathless ride!

Liverpool 4 - 3 Fulham

If the Chelsea Brighton game had twists and turns, this one did its part to match them. Fulham seem to have some magic formula for playing Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. Their previous three meetings resulting in 1 win each and 2 score draws. So maybe we should’ve expected this to be competitive. Enforced changes were the story of the lineup for Liverpool, though Ryan Gravenberch (6) was perhaps a surprise starter. Fulham shuffled the deck a little, with Willian (2.5) notably missing out on the starting lineup for Fantrax managers.

As you’d expect from a goal-scoring extravaganza, there were points aplenty. We will start with Fulham. Their star man for the afternoon was Antonee Robinson (22). We called him out as one of the best streamer options in the league in current form in last week’s Roundup. This wasn’t a game we would’ve targeted but he certainly continued to put up the points. His Assist was the headline but he had an incredible 13 (thirteen) Interceptions in this one. A matchup with Mo Salah (19) is rarely a positive thing for a left-back. But Robinson came out admirably. Aside from the goal-scorers, this was also a reasonable point tally from Andreas Pereira (8.5) who was able to get 3 Key Passes here, benefiting from his corner taking responsibilities. It has been a down-year for him compared to last year but there are at least signs of him getting back to reasonable point scores in recent weeks. Fulham’s point tallies were very bunched up around the goalscorers here, because they only actually had 5 Shots on Target. But they were generally quite good shots, with all three goals coming from inside the 6 yard box.

Liverpool, on the other hand, were happy to shoot from basically anywhere. They ended up with 26 Shots on the day. Three of their goals from outside the box and another just inside. They were seemingly having their very own Goal of the Season contest in this one. We’d personally give the nod to Alexis Mac Allister (13) but all four were excellent. Trent Alexander-Arnold (21.25) has continued his rebuttal to being classed a “draft bust” by some hack online with another goal contribution (and he was really robbed of a second by the crossbar rebounding the ball onto Bernd Leno (6.5). You can tell a Goalkeeper has been busy when they concede 4, including an Own Goal, and still finish with that many points. Liverpool look paper thin in defence at times (and some of the Fulham goals here really showed defensive vulnerability from Liverpool) but they’ve got near-unmatched firepower to make up for it. Consider us concerned for Sheffield United in midweek.

West Ham United 1 - 1 Crystal Palace

For Subscribers in the UK, this was somehow the game selected for Sky to broadcast. With no offence to either side, that was a bold call. The game did have its moments, but it’s a relatively easy one to summarise.

For West Ham, there were two Fantrax relevant players. Mo Kudus (23) who now has 23 or more points in 3 of his last 4 games (and had a second ruled off for offside). And Vladimir Coufal (14) who got the assist for Coufal’s goal. Aside from those two, only Konstantinos Mavropanos (8.5) returned starter level output, courtesy of 7 Aerial Duels Won. West Ham only managed 3 Shots on Target in this one. Alongside the 1 for Kudus, 2 went to Jarrod Bowen (3.5) but he was frustrated on the day, being responsible for 6 Dispossessions. West Ham will have better days.

Palace were without the services of Eberechi Eze and struggled to create in the first half in particular (only 0.23 xG from 5 Shots). It did get a little better in the second, whilst chasing a goal and Odsonne Edouard (13.5) did get the equaliser for Palace that they probably deserved. Edouard is having the best season of his Palace career, seemingly regardless of who is providing him the service. In this case, he was gifted a chance on goal by Mavropanos’s loose pass. The only other players you would’ve been happy to start for Palace were Joachim Andersen (8.75) and Chris Richards (11) who was played as a DM for this one. We can’t imagine anyone streamed him, though. That meant disappointment for Michael Olise (3.5) managers. He still had his set piece roles and plenty of passes into the final third. This game was just a bit of a vacuum for good scoring opportunities. Roll him back out there happily for the visit of Bournemouth in midweek.

Manchester City 3 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur

Full disclosure: I thought this one was likely to be such a walkover that I actually went to bed and decided to watch this one on catchup. I jinxed myself and you’re all welcome. As high-scoring draws go, this one was probably one of the more one-sided. Even ignoring the Own Goal, Manchester City racked up a further 2.57 xG. For their part, Spurs scored 3 Goals from 4 Shots on Target (8 total Shots) and ran very hot on their 0.46 xG. You’re used to the rhythms of this by now. Any Spurs players that didn’t get involved in the goals did absolutely nothing. All but 4 Spurs players scored 1 point or under (we did say to avoid all non-attacking Spurs players). If you started any of the front four, though, you got points. Dejan Kulusevski (20.5) and Son Heung-Min (18.5) headlined, with a Goal and an Assist a piece. In both cases they only had 1 Shot each so you can see the fine margins this game turned on for Fantrax managers who rostered or faced these players. When West Ham visit on Thursday, Tottenham should welcome back Cristian Romero who will provide a much needed boost in defence. Though I’m not totally convinced even he would’ve been enough to stop a rampant looking City attack here.

Naturally in the preview, we were focused on Erling Haaland (16) against the makeshift Spurs CB duo. So naturally he was kept off the score sheet. He did get 2 Assists, though. He also let the referee knew how he felt late in the game when the referee blew the whistle for a foul after he had released Jack Grealish (13.5) through on goal with a chance to win the game. We don’t talk about the refereeing decisions here, but with yellow cards for Grealish and Rodri (5.5), they will both be missing for City’s next game (which would’ve been a return to Villa Park for Grealish). A potential injury to Jeremy Doku (3) means City could be in for some attacking rotation this week. We saw a Rodri-less City struggle last time he was suspended, so we’ll be intrigued how this plays out. Despite their firepower up top and goal-scoring, City are finding Clean Sheets and defensive stability hard to come by, even with Rodri in the lineup. They didn’t keep a single league Clean Sheet in November and surrendered leads to Chelsea and Tottenham that will no doubt have had Pep fuming on the sidelines. It’s important at this time of year to remember that City always have this weird late calendar-year sluggish spell before marching inevitably to the title. But it is our job to point at this season’s version and say “until he fixes it (again), this is a worry for City”. You’re not benching any City attackers, ever. But Pep might bench some of them if he thinks it’ll give him defensive solidity!

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Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates.