The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 20

In which 'revenge games' were everywhere!

Happy New Year! Welcome to 2024 and welcome to the Overthinking Roundup for Gameweek 20.

This is our guide to the week that was. In it, we go game by game to break down the notable stories and performances, before diving into transaction advice for our Paid Subscribers. Gameweek 20 is a bit of an odd week, with a game on Tuesday night. So that this gets out ahead of waivers, we won’t be talking about the West Ham vs Brighton tie here. Subscribers can find our Previews for that game in the usual places!

As ever, if you enjoy what we do, please share and encourage others to subscribe!

Luton Town 2 - 3 Chelsea

I don’t know how many true neutrals there are with Luton this season in the Premier League. If they’re playing someone other than your team, it’s hard to not want them to do well. But if there were any, on Saturday they would’ve been pretty entertained. It was the definition of a ‘game of two halves’ and to let you behind the curtains at Overthinking Football, having watched the first half before a flight I thought this was going to be a pretty short blurb to write. I was ready to go with my Cole Palmer (36) ‘good at football’ summary. It was all going to be about Chelsea’s attack. Things changed when I watched the second half on catch-up.

Chelsea’s attack was surprisingly competent, given the changes made to it. Noni Madueke (24.5) has now flashed end-product three games in a row (two as a sub, only this one as a starter) which is a big progression from what he was offering Chelsea last year. Nicolas Jackson (15) also reminded why, despite plenty of memes in the first half of the season, he’s a player Chelsea believe in (and will miss during AFCoN), in particular with the assist for Palmer’s second. But the thing with this season’s Chelsea is that however much good work they do, they’ve just got a fragility to them. So in the second half, Luton really pushed on that fragility. And boy did it nearly work.

The Preview ahead of this game mentioned two things about this game for Luton. Number one is that Alfie Doughty (31.5) was a decent bet to be the main man for Luton, finishing top of our projections model and second overall for the game, given Chelsea’s set piece deficiencies. Number two was that Ross Barkley (19.5) likely had unfinished business at Stamford Bridge. Sure enough, they were the stars at the weekend. If Luton had a little more composure in defence, they might’ve taken points from Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Chelsea in the last 6 weeks. It’s not going to be mistaken for peak-Barcelona any time soon but their attacking style is effective. They get Burnley next up and it feels like a fantastic opportunity to get value from your Luton assets.

Aston Villa 3 - 2 Burnley

Like their relegation rivals Luton, Burnley were out to make Villa’s afternoon difficult too. Unlike Luton, there’s no significant xG generation here. But there were two well taken goals, twice coming from behind against a Villa side most would’ve expected to win this one comfortably. The second equaliser also came after Burnley were down to ten-men, following Sander Berge’s (-6.5) dismissal for a cynical drag back after he conceded possession in the middle of the park. That goal came from back-to-front, with just a single headed through-ball between James Trafford’s (4.25) goal kick and Lyle Foster’s (19) smart finish. Any chance Burnley have of retaining their Premier League status likely falls on Foster’s shoulders and he looks every bit capable of competing at this level. He should be rostered and can be played in most matchups, despite Burnley’s underdog status.

All that said, Villa were good value for their points here. They put up 3.23 xG and would’ve felt fairly aggrieved if they’d had to share the points. Douglas Luiz (18.5) was the late hero but it was the usual attacking suspects who did most of the damage. Ollie Watkins (21.5), Moussa Diaby (16.5) and Leon Bailey (16) are as good a front three as you could want for Fantrax and, even though Watkins finds himself a few games without a goal, it undoubtedly will not be long before he’s finding the net again. They get Everton next which will be another tough tie.

Crystal Palace 3 - 1 Brentford

It’s really not hard to see why Michael Olise (36.5) is a man in demand. That there was a time when Palace looked likely to go into the season without him seems unthinkable at this point. Since his return from injury he’s lit up the league once more and is the number one overall player since November 25th (his full return) even though he didn’t start one game in that time-frame. He seems to single-handedly drag this Palace team on his back at times. His 0.93 xG+xA in this one comfortably paced both sides and he was rewarded with 2 Goals for his hard work. Having your best players available matters. When Palace get both Olise and Eberechi Eze (18) on the field, their attack works. And they’ll need them both next Gameweek, when they face Arsenal.

On the other side of the key player availability fence is Brentford. No Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo, Kevin Schade, Ben Mee, Rico Henry and Aaron Hickey as well as a just back-to-fitness Mathias Jensen (3) has this team running on absolute fumes. If they are genuinely considering selling Toney, it feels like something of a gamble in their current situation, especially with Yoanne Wissa (-0.5) heading for International Duty. It only takes a few games of competence for Luton to catch their points tally (a four point gap as it stands). It’s not likely but it’s also not impossible. They’re a prudent side when it comes to transfers, so we don’t particularly expect any panic in January , but Thomas Frank needs some help if he’s going to get Brentford back to winning ways. They get Nottingham Forest next and that feels an important game for both sides.

Manchester City 2 - 0 Sheffield United

This one felt pretty routine for Manchester City. They turned up, they did the business, and they got out of there. If there’s tiredness from their travels, they weren’t showing it. And Sheffield United, behind after just 14 minutes, generated basically nothing. For those used to these Roundups by now, 4 shots and 0.31 xG doesn’t very often lead to Fantrax points hauls. In the Preview we pointed out we were cautious about Vinicius de Souza Costa (4.5), despite his previous points scores in tough matchups, and sure enough, he had a muted day. The truth of it is that City didn’t really have to get out of second gear.

Phil Foden (30) was the star, with 2 Assists from 6 Key Passes. That City’s Fantrax day wasn’t bigger was mostly down to the fact that they managed to put 14 of their 18 Shots off target. There could’ve been significantly bigger days for a number of City players. Julian Alvarez (12) in particular had 4 Shots for 1.19 xG, but only put one between the sticks. The biggest news of the day for Manchester City fans and Fantrax managers was the listing of Kevin de Bruyne amongst the City substitutes. He’s probably a few games away from starting, but it’s a welcome sight for anyone that drafted him in the first round. We wait to see how all the pieces fit together once everyone is healthy again (and dread the potential return of the roulette).

Wolves 3 - 0 Everton

This is one we did not predict playing out as one-sidedly as it did. We wondered if fatigue would catch up with either side, given how little these lineups have changed on a weekly basis. If that’s what happened to Everton, it would be understandable. But either way, Wolves were excellent. Matheus Cunha (25) in particular shone (as he has for most of the year under Gary O’Neil). He had 1 Goal and 1 Assist from an xG+xA of 1.10 and Everton just didn’t seem to have much of an answer for him. Hwang Hee-Chan (12) was also able to pick up an Assist (and perhaps should have had a Goal too). He will head out to the Asian Cup soon and Wolves will miss him considerably. Outside of these two, it was a pair of defenders that really hit home if you were streaming Wolves names. Craig Dawson (29.75) and Max Kilman (21.75) both had the benefit of a Goal and a Clean Sheet and probably won matchups for anyone brave enough to start them.

On the Everton side, it was pretty brutal. Only Dominic Calvert-Lewin (9) returned a good score, primarily off the back of 4 Key Passes. But those 4 Key Passes came with an xA of 0.02. In other words, they were almost never going to turn into Goals. No one else Everton-wise did much of anything. 0 Shots on Target, 10 Shots, 0.46 xG. Not great. Everton will get a bit of a rest now, which is much needed. They will want to put this one out of mind before facing Aston Villa at Goodison Park in mid-January.

Nottingham Forest 2 - 1 Manchester United

The ‘new manager bounce’ at Nottingham Forest is alive and well. Following up a comfortable win against Newcastle, Nuno Espirito Santo’s new charges were able to restrict Manchester United in attack and twice take the lead, holding on to record another valuable three points. Long-term Nuno watchers may be unsurprised when I say that this one wasn’t a feat of attacking prowess, rather one of excellent defensive organisation. They took 8 Shots, got 0.7 xG and restricted Manchester United to just 0.76 xG. You can probably guess that the result was a point distribution entirely around the 2 Goals. Nicolas Dominguez (13) and Morgan Gibbs-White (10) were both unable to add much to the points they got for scoring but the star-man in this one was Anthony Elanga (18.5) who truly embraced the ‘revenge game’ narrative, headlined by his 3 Key Passes and an Assist. We have some long-held Elanga skepticism but he is starting to put together some performances with a run of games that suggest Forest were right to gamble on him (and perhaps that United were wrong to bail on him).

That feeling intensifies when looking at United’s current winger choices. Antony (2) is just not a footballer worthy of his price tag—a fact that even United’s scouting department believed according to recent reports. He’s no better than a matchup-based streamer and it’s not like United have too many sure-thing matchups in their calendar. We just don’t see the plan for United. They had a mini-resurgence in results (without necessarily seeing great underlying numbers) off the back of a Harry Maguire and Scott McTominay (4) farewell tour (alongside the return of Luke Shaw). Those are three reasonably good players, but the problem for United is that they spent an awful lot of money because they didn’t want to start at least two of those three players. And the replacements are mostly worse. They also now lose Andre Onana (-3.75) to International Duty and, for all his flaws, he’s clearly their most experienced keeper. Maybe there’s a January window masterplan but the biggest issue is that they’ve spent plenty of money for Erik Ten Hag, it’s just been mostly wasted. Something will need to change in the process for this to turn around for the second half of the season. Other than Bruno Fernandes (4.5), I’m not sure I confidently project anyone for Top-20 points scores the rest of the way.

Fulham 2 - 1 Arsenal

We believe it’s more important to talk about your losses than your wins here at Overthinking Football. And we got this game wrong in the Preview. We imagined this game as a classic Arsenal possession-based victory, where Fulham would get little-to-no joy in attack. Instead, Fulham got 15 Shots, 1.22 xG and 2 Goals. Which was enough to take all 3 points from the game. We still believe Fulham need to replace Raul Jimenez (16.5), but what the last few games have shown pretty clearly is that he’s considerably better than any alternatives Fulham have in their squad. And he elevates those around him. It’s likely most Fulham players were benched this week, but Antonee Robinson (11) still returned value for anyone that held the faith, with his usual mix of attacking involvement (2 Key Passes) and defensive work (3 Tackles, 3 Interceptions, 4 Clearances). We try not to write about the same things every week but Robinson makes it difficult not to write about him when he’s putting up double figure points regularly, regardless of how many goals Fulham concede. After the break, they get a matchup with West London rivals Chelsea and, given Chelsea’s form, they’ll feel like it’s a real chance to get a win. You can definitely start Robinson in that one. And on the weekly theme of ‘revenge games,’ Willian (5.5) follows up a game against Arsenal with a game against Chelsea. With both clubs having decided years ago that Willian’s best days are behind him, his season and a half at Fulham suggest they were premature in that judgement!

For Arsenal it just all went a bit wrong for them after as good an opening few minutes as they could’ve hoped for. Bukayo Saka (13) put them ahead after just 5 minutes with a deceptively tough finish after a save from former-Arsenal man Bernd Leno (0) spilled to him. The xG says it was a chance that’s scored 90% of the time but it still takes good reactions and concentration. For the remaining 85 minutes, Arsenal had 10 Shots but only 0.64 xG to show for it. The end-result was that we got fairly low scores for most of the Arsenal names (relative to what we’re used to). It’s now three games without a win for Arsenal, who will probably be glad of a break and chance to recharge the batteries. They get almost 20 days before their next Premier League game and we’d expect them to bounce back to their usual selves for that tie against Crystal Palace.

Spurs 3 - 1 Bournemouth

We were intrigued how this one would play out, with Spurs midweek results and Bournemouth’s recent form. Turns out, it was pretty routine for Spurs. They got an early lead and didn’t really ever look like surrendering it. We expected it to be a fair bit closer than it was and our two tips for this game had mixed days. Alex Scott (17.5) scored again, which was nice, but he didn’t start, which was not. And Dango Ouattara (6) managed just 45 minutes, which was not nice, but got 6 points in that spell, which was. He’s reportedly in a walking boot and now heads off to AFCoN. Can’t win them all, I guess. Bournemouth did get 24 Shots (4 Shots on Target), so there were Key Pass points to go around. Marcus Tavernier (22.5) helped himself to 5 of them and got 1 Assist. He continues to be excellent for Fantrax week-in, week-out. Lewis Cook (11) also chipped in with 4 which gave him another relevant week. He’s actually been startable (or better) in 5 of his last 7 starts, which is the best spell of his Fantrax career. Luis Sinisterra (11) also turned 60 minutes of action into a big points tally, with 5 Take-Ons the standout part of his stat-line. With Ouattara injured and fellow winger Antoine Semenyo (3.5) out for January, Sinisterra stands to benefit from additional playing time and although the fixtures aren’t great, he’s going to be a streaming option until the others return.

For Spurs we saw a return of the Giovani Lo Celso (20) show. He had 2 Assists in this one (from 2 Key Passes) and remains very Goal and Assist reliant. But that’s less of an issue than you’d think, when he keeps scoring and assisting. That said, his xA for the day was 0.14, so we are still asterisking it in terms of how it projects forward. Everything else mostly worked out the way you’d expect for a Spurs 3-1 win. We do want to shout out Pedro Porro (9.75) who continues to score remarkably well, despite barely any Clean Sheet games. Admittedly his defensive contribution is on the light side, which doesn’t help in that regard, but if Spurs were ever to add solidity to their game, he’d be a truly elite full back option. Their next game is against Manchester United and they’ll be hoping that the two weeks gives them time to get some midfielders healthy (and a defender through the door).

Liverpool 4 - 2 Newcastle

There was a bit of a question as to whether we would actually have time to talk about this one before publishing. Boy are we glad we took the call to do so. This was an incredible attacking performance by Liverpool. They had 7.27 xG across the 90 minutes. I don’t recall the last game I saw with more than 5 xG for a single team, so it’s fair to say that, but for Martin Dubravka (19.5), this could’ve been even uglier for Newcastle. It’s their 5th loss in the last 6 games, with Manchester City and Aston Villa the next 2 fixtures to play. That there were any Newcastle players with good points tallies is slightly surprising, given they also only put up 0.59 xG from 5 Shots, but the 2 Goals they did score meant you weren’t overly impacted if you started Anthony Gordon (17) or Alexander Isak (13.5) and you got a lucky reprieve if you turned to Sven Botman (11.75) whose goal salvaged the day. You need to keep rolling out your Newcastle attacking players if you’ve got them, but we certainly don’t feel good about their upcoming schedule.

For Liverpool this was as good a farewell game as Mo Salah (37) could’ve asked for. Almost 40 points, despite missing a penalty at 0-0, is wild and Liverpool will have to come up with an answer at right wing whilst he’s away. We’re intrigued what Klopp turns to but whatever it is, it’s unlikely to be as potent. The other big performance of the day was Darwin Nunez (22) who did what Nunez does: get 5 Shots on Target worth 1.67 xG for 0 Goals and then picking up an Assist. As a non-Liverpool fan, I love the Nunez experience. I imagine Jurgen Klopp must find it maddening, but he’s near-enough undroppable when he’s this disruptive. Promisingly for Liverpool, given Salah’s departure, they actually had all 5 of their forwards on the field in this one and all 5 finished with double figure points, courtesy of Goal and Assist cameos for Cody Gakpo (14) and Diogo Jota (18) respectively. They’ll need them to step up this month, so this was a good sign. And for followers of the Preview, we mentioned Curtis Jones (22.5) in the run-up to this one. Mostly to say that we weren’t sure he was a very good start. That one was a miss. He ended the day with 5 Shots for 1.38 xG and a Goal. He made it look easy. If it wasn’t for Salah, he’d probably have been a clear Man of the Match. Midfield hasn’t been the most balanced position for Liverpool this season, so Jones emerging as a clear plus-starter has been a real boon for Klopp. This was his first performance above 8 points, though, so we’re not in a huge rush to grab him from the wire.

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Another week, another set of transactions for our subscribers. As usual, we’re not going to shout out long-term injuries or suspensions in here. We recommend regularly using a resource like PremierInjuries to keep on track of potential stash-ahead guys as we get closer to their expected availability dates, though there are two we will mention this week.