The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 2

In which Spurs look fun, Sheff United take another Fantrax point beating, West Ham avoid an "Aguerd'oh" headline thanks to JWP, and Man City emerge victorious from the first ‘Infinite Money Derby’

Well there’s nothing like the Premier League to get you all ready for a new season, hit you with a pretty fun opening week full of goals, only to depress you entirely by midweek with misguided club press briefings. We’re not going to waste much space on it at the moment, except to say that we hope United rethink their plans. Some things matter more than having a backup to Antony.

The transfers just never seem to stop!

On to happier topics, we’re another week in. August remains a bit of a holding pattern as we move ever closer to the Transfer Window closing, praying we don’t see any of our star names leapfrogged by expensive imports. This week saw the end to the Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia sagas (thankfully), though before Chelsea fans had too long to celebrate it, we also saw promising youngster Lewis Hall move to Newcastle (the only one of those three names that might actually be Fantrax relevant). Liverpool rebounded hard from being spurned and picked up Wataru Endo from Germany. Arsenal went through with bringing David Raya to compete with Aaron Ramsdale, likely dropping the value (and definitely Fantrax managers’ confidence) of both. And finally, we saw West Ham add previously perpetual Top-30 name James Ward-Prowse to their midfield (whilst looking potentially like losing Lucas Paqueta to a ban, rather than to Manchester City) and Everton adding to their list of unavailable wingers with the currently-injured Jack Harrison.

We may well speak a little more about Hall and James Ward-Prowse in other places. For now, it’s time to turn back to what we saw on the field. We go again…

• Sorry to say it Sheffield United, but (with Luton and Burnley not playing this week) you’re looking very much like the team to target for streamers. I was surprised how comprehensively they were controlled by Palace in Week 1 (who I had thought might struggle without Zaha and Olise). It did not get better in Week 2. They allowed 5 opposition players to record double figure fantasy points this week and, bolstered by a clean sheet for their defenders, all but one Palace player to do it in Week 1. The lone single-digit name? Tyrick Mitchell. He got 9.75. We’re in the territory of “start everyone against Sheffield United” already and that’s really not a good sign for Sheff Utd’s survival hopes. They get Man City next. It could be very ugly.

• In our ‘Questions ahead of GW2’ article we expressed a worry about Fulham. That worry is amplified even further after an absolute paddling from Brentford. I was worried for Brentford without Ivan Toney, but Thomas Frank has them looking better through the first two games, if anything. Our 22/23 Breakouts pick Bryan Mbuemo (27 points) continues to look like he’s matured into a forward that can carry a team and Yoanne Wissa (24.5) has contributed well alongside him. They get Crystal Palace and Bournemouth next, which feels like a nice pair of fixtures to continue their momentum.

• Speaking of Iraola’s South Coast charges, for most of the game Bournemouth competed pretty well with Liverpool. They dropped off in the second half in a way that implies the new manager’s pressing play works, but exacts a toll on a squad not used to doing it yet. It was a worrying pattern for Klopp and co. They really need Endo to do a job for them. That said, it’s hard to escape the fact that their forwards are lacking sharpness in their combination play right now. Passes are often not coming on time (or at all), or are overhit when they do come. In that context, 3.08 xG is actually pretty impressive. We’re betting that at some point it will click in attack at least. Either way, Luis Diaz (17.5 fpts) continues his strong early campaign for ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ with a lovely goal. His teammate Diogo Jota (27) is making his own case this week, so far confining pre-season darling Darwin Nunez to the bench.

• Tough day at the office for Wolves. Another match where they could have easily been 2-0 up in the first 30 minutes went awry from the moment Kaoru Mitoma (29 fpts) decided he wanted to run through the entire Wolves team. The floodgates then opened for the rotated (yet dynamic) Brighton attack, suggesting that fantasy managers should again stay away from the Wolves’ defense. But what about that Wolves attack? It certainly seems to have some more spark than last season and looked lively on the counter. On a different day Matheus Cunha (12.5) and Fabio Silva (6) could have put up bigger scores. Some tempering of expectations is probably worthwhile with respect to the whole crew (yes, including Pedro Neto (7.5)) and they desperately need someone to start converting the chances that they’re getting, but Neto and Cunha could both be useful options this season.

• Manchester United started last season so slowly that Erik Ten Hag had them running sprints and spent £70m on a 30 year-old defensive midfielder at the end of the transfer window to plug the gaps. It’s not a lot better so far this year. They were on top for a while at the start of this weekend's game. And that was about the end of it. From late in the first half, Tottenham took over and did not let up. Yes, the Martinez (-2.75 fpts) OG was comical (and unlikely to happen again), but it was symptomatic of a side that were second best to everything. Casemiro (8.5) looks sluggish and they really need him to hit sharpness quickly. If it’s anything more than a Summer hangover, it’s worrying for United. Without his balance, nothing works. I’ll leave discussion of Antony (3.5) and Garnacho (6.5) for another time, but they did not offer enough to justify Marcus Rashford (5) to be shunted out of position for them. We might already be placing unfair expectations on Rasmus Hojlund to fix things. That said, they still played Spurs about even to xG, which is probably as much about how open this iteration of Spurs is going to be than anything to do with United. Fun.

• Newcastle have had better days at the office. That’s ok when you’re playing a team as good as Manchester City. We talked about the battle for the left midfield spot in the buildup to this game. They stuck with Anthony Gordon (-1.5 fpts) as expected. He was lucky to stay on the pitch with two ‘orange’ card challenges on Ruben Dias (7.5). This was always a tough assignment, but it was the second week in a row that Harvey Barnes (0) has looked better in relief. On the other side of the ball, Phil Foden (25.5) looked unstoppable deputising for Kevin de Bruyne and (it seems wild to write this) would have had multiple assists on a day where Erling Haaland (6.5) was a little sharper. Sure, he did start strongly last year too only to then drop out of the team a bit. But with the injuries and already reduced competition in the squad, this really could be the year he gets enough starts to turn his top average-WAR contributions into a Top 10 finish.

• When planning this article before the game week, we expected to dive into Villa’s backline and whether it struggled in the absence of stalwart Tyrone Mings. But frankly, after watching 90+ minutes of that bloodbath, it’s hard to say anything about Villa’s defense given how little they were tested. There is, however, much to say about Everton, though none of it is positive. When it comes to Dyche teams, we have come to expect a pragmatic attack. Sure, scoring goals may not be their strength, but that’s (slightly) less of an issue when you have an organized, disciplined backline that is an incredibly tough nut to crack. But pair that sputtering attack with a backline that isn’t so organized or disciplined, and you’ve got a real problem. Everton looked bad today, and their reinforcements are still in the treatment room for a few more weeks at minimum. It will be interesting to see how big of a hole they have dug themselves by the time those reinforcements arrive. As for Villa? Moussa Diaby (8 fpts) and Ollie Watkins (12) looked to be forming a nice partnership up top, while Leon Bailey (21) even showed a few flashes of what led fantasy managers to scramble to pick him up a few years ago. Not only that but we got some set piece clarity, with Douglas Luiz (15) taking the penalty. This was a great, and much needed, bounce back performance for the Villans against a not-so-great side. Newly promoted Burnley next.

• James Ward-Prowse (18 fpts) open-play assist challenge: complete. Bit of an odd game all-round at the London Stadium. It swung around some big moments. West Ham were pretty good until they scored. Then they seemed to forget that they were allowed to try to score again. Then Chelsea were pretty good from that period right up until Enzo Fernandez (9) missed the chance to go ahead from the penalty spot and Carney Chukweumeka (12) left with a knee injury. A disjointed second-half from Chelsea let West Ham pick them off, despite a red card for Nayef Aguerd (6.25). West Ham are going to be hard to make any concrete predictions for until the Transfer Window closes. It seems they still need something more up top. But this was a good day for them. Chelsea will probably feel a bit unlucky they didn’t take the lead, but need to have a better plan B than “Mudryk and Madueke chaos time.” Oh and, as fun as the chaotic cameo was, we’ll wait till Moises Caicedo (3) is off the beach properly before we’ll comment too much on that one. Chelsea’s run of fixtures is kind for the next few and, on the basis of Sunday, that’s much needed.

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