The Overthinking Roundup: Gameweek 7

In which Ollie Watkins & Kieran Trippier competed for repeat article cover pictures (nice try lads), Luton lifted themselves out of the relegation zone and Liverpool refused to play with 11 (again)

Welcome back with a vengeance to the Saturday 3pm kickoff. We missed you last week. Despite some Cup games in the midweek, most of the games fell into normal time-slots this week, with the exception of Chelsea’s trip to Fulham (which we aren’t covering here for obvious reasons) and the second part of Luton and Burnley’s Double Gameweek, which takes place on Tuesday night. So we’re back to our normal distribution time this Monday.

And what a week it was. We had some huge team and individual performances, some shock results and no small dose of PGMOL controversy. As usual, we’re here to break down the action, discuss the Fantrax performances that mattered and, in our subscriber sections, break down the transactions that we recommend this week.

On we go.

Aston Villa 6 - 1 Brighton

Well that was quite something from Aston Villa. We discussion in our preview that we’d been left a little underwhelmed by Unai Emery’s tactics in games against top-half opposition so far. No complaints this week. This was a demolition, led by Ollie Watkins (59.5). He set about bullying the Brighton back-line early, scoring his first goal in the 14th minute and didn’t let up from that point on, getting the second of his two assists in the 97th minute. If you started Watkins, you almost definitely won the Gameweek, unless you were unlucky enough to stack the Brighton defence. Alongside Watkins, this Villa side remains a points funnel, particularly on the Ghost Point front. Moussa Diaby (21) got himself two assists, with the others provided by John McGinn (14.5) and Matty Cash (13.5). They were joined by Douglas Luiz (12.5) and late substitute Jacob Ramsey (12) in the double figure crew, courtesy of two late goals. We’d probably ideally have a handful more trustable players on a weekly basis here, but at the same time, confidence is valuable. Having navigated 6 points against Chelsea and Brighton, they have a trip to Molineux to face Wolves next.

Brighton will hope that this is a season low point and just a one-off, partly tied to some player availability challenges. It’s probably not worth interrogating it too deeply. They really miss Pascal Gross and it’s been pretty clear in his last two appearances that Evan Ferguson (-0.5 with a withdrawal at HT) is not fully healthy. One thing we will say is that this lineup today was mostly made up of guys that have been at Brighton for a length of time, over some of the newer signings from the Summer, which we assume is about system familiarity. That meant returns to the bench for Joao Pedro, Carlos Baleba, Ansu Fati, Mahmoud Dahoud and Igor Julio. And it meant a start for young Jack Hinshelwood (6) in CM. Jack Hinshelwood wasn’t even born when Shrek 2 premiered. That’s only relevant in that it’s no more fair to ask him to have the experience or presence to stop the tide of Villa’s attacks, at this point in his career, any more than it is to expect him to understand just how big a cultural phenomenon that green ogre was back in 2004. Brighton’s next two games are as tough as they come, with a visit from Liverpool then a trip to the Etihad. They need to figure out a way to get their best players onto the pitch for those two games. For our money, that includes starting Joao Pedro (12.5). For whatever he is apparently lacking tactically in De Zerbi’s preferred set-up, he has now come on and been the best player for Brighton off the bench multiple times.

Bournemouth 0 - 4 Arsenal

Mikel Arteta does not care about your Fantrax team. We know this. He doesn’t particularly hide it either. Look at his press conference answers around player availability and selections for proof. It manifested on the pitch today too, with probably the biggest Fantasy Football story being the two different penalty takers, neither of them Bukayo Saka (16). The first went to Martin Odegaard (34) who had his biggest day of the season with a goal and two assists from 1.17 xG+xA. The second penalty of the day went to Kai Havertz (9). It saved his Fantrax day. I’m not convinced we’ll see him taking penalties again, so it wouldn’t be wise to bet on this being a regular occurrence. And his non-penalty xG+xA was 0.07. We’re not sure how rosterable Havertz actually is at this point. He’s seemingly got no route to playing as a forward, with Eddie Nketiah (14.5) the clear deputy to Gabriel Jesus (15.5), and he just isn’t scoring points in this strange ‘off-ball 8’ role. Even if you don’t want to drop him, there’s just no way to justify starting him against Manchester City next week.

This was ugly for Bournemouth. And came with news that Tyler Adams has aggravated his hamstring in his midweek appearance. The upside case for Bournemouth we wanted to make after the transfer window was that they’d upgraded in CM which could give them a platform to build on and that they’d get a breakout from Dango Ouattara and at least one of the other wingers they’ve stockpiled. For the second week in a row, Dango started from the bench, only for Justin Kluivert (1) to put up an xG+xA of under 0.1 before being hooked and outperformed. With Adams out again indefinitely and Alex Scott still both unavailable and unproven at this level, our optimism level has declined a fair bit. They’ve got Everton next and, even in October, it’s a must win for both teams.

Everton 1 - 2 Luton Town

I don’t know how many Everton fan subscribers we have. For those who are here, we can only apologise. Twenty-four hours after we wrote a preview praising Everton’s ability to rack-up xG and, crucially this year, score it too, they go and lose a game to Luton where they had a 2 goal xG advantage (2.89 to 0.9). It was doubly-likely to bite us, given we’d also talked about the dangers of stacking Luton players for this game (Alfie Doughty (22) apart). My hands are up. Luton did well enough in this game to justify starts for a lot of their guys, even ignoring the additional potential of the DGW. (Chris is no doubt feeling very smug, even if he’s yet to brag about it yet). Doughty was excellent for the second-game running. He’s got 11 KPs in his last two games. And both Carlton Morris (14) and, somewhat fortuitously, Tom Lockyer (11.75) were happy recipients of the service he offered. Assuming Luton are, at worst, equal to Burnley in midweek, there’ll be some very happy managers.

But the story isn’t really that Luton were great today. It was that Everton, once again, could only convert one of the 23 shots they made, despite 5 of them being considered ‘big chances’ by Opta. As you’d expect with that many chances to go around, there were a lot of Fantrax points here, so at least most of you wouldn’t have been too disappointed by any of the guys you started. Abdoulaye Doucoure (16) was pick of the bunch again, despite being substituted with a third of the game remaining. And there were nice ghost point outings from Amadou Onana (11), Dwight McNeil (9.5), Vitalii Mykolenko (9.5) and James Tarkowski (8). Jack Harrison (6) also flashed his potential, with a solid return for just a single half of play. But in real football terms, it’s yet another week in which Everton have played a bottom half side, outplayed them and left with nothing. The expected numbers say Dyche should be totally safe, the points tally says he’s got to start looking over his shoulder. For Fantrax, Dyche has been a breath of fresh air for this Everton side, so we really hope he can turn it around.

Manchester United 0 - 1 Crystal Palace

Given he’s on honeymoon, Andrew escapes any risk of having to write about this one. He also was fortunate enough to be in the air whilst the game was played. United have now played Palace (with a rotated lineup on the part of the South Londoners) twice in a week. Both games look strikingly similar in some ways. In midweek, United generated 1.2 xG. This weekend: 1.3. In the cup, United had 69% of the ball. This weekend: 77%. But the big difference is that in midweek, United scored three times. This weekend: a Palace side, with their key players restored, scored in the first half, courtesy of Joachim Andersen (29.5), took the lead and just never gave it back up. To talk about Andersen for a moment: the Palace defender now has 3 games with 23 or more points in the first 7 games. That feels a wildly unlikely trend to continue but is a huge return for anyone who has started him this season. Palace weren’t exactly rampant here and had to dig in to get the result, but they also weren’t hugely threatened either. Eberechi Eze (16) does a lot of heavy lifting for this team. He’s the definition of reliable and kudos to all those who drafted him. Lets hope he gets some help soon, though, or he might be burned out by Christmas!

For United, there were a number of changes from their previous league lineup, with a debut for Sofyan Amrabat (3.5) at full-back and returns to the lineup for Raphael Varane (7.5) and Mason Mount (7). There’s a world where, even in a loss, this United team could’ve put up a lot more Fantrax points than this, given they had 19 shots. But when only 4 end up on target, there’s only 8 shot points to go around. Two of them went to Rasmus Hojlund (7.5) who had an ok day point-wise, but who is credited with turning 0.34 of xG into 0.14 of xGOT. The other efforts were an outside of the box attempt from Bruno Fernandes (11), who returned a respectable Fantrax score as usual, and a wide left effort from Alejandro Garnacho (3). Next up is a trip to Brentford. United fans won’t have fond memories of that tie last season. Whatever’s broken at Manchester United, it will be interesting to see how hot the seat is under Erik Ten Hag in the coming weeks.

Newcastle United 2 - 0 Burnley

You pretty much knew that travelling to face this Newcastle side, whilst missing their primary striker option, this was going to be difficult for the Clarets. And so it proved. Newcastle were consistently on top in this game. Zeki Amdouni (2) managed an early decent chance, but very little else all game, as it ran away from them. If you were picking up Burnley players for the DGW, you did so knowing that they may only get a handful of points in this one, so likely no one came away too hurt by what the Burnley side put out. And in fact if you picked Sander Berge (7), Josh Brownhill (5) or James Trafford (9) then you’re probably in a pretty good spot on those pick-ups. We just need to see them put together a solid 90 minute performance against Luton and, if they’ve got aspirations of survival, they need actual points in that game too.

For Newcastle, you probably knew that anyone that started, you could plug them into your lineup. And with eleven players on 8 or more points, you were right. The headliners were the usual suspects of Kieran Trippier (29), Alexander Isak (21) and Bruno Guimaraes (20.5) who have shown anyone worried that last season was a fluke that they’re here to stay as Fantrax assets. Trippier has 74 points over his last two games. Higher than the season long point tallies of Solly March (73), Marcus Rashford (66.5) and Pervis Estupinan (62.75). He was the second most valuable player in the league on WAR last season and on the evidence of the first 7 games, he’s got a chance to match it again this year.

Also, although he was the lowest scoring Newcastle starter on the day (substituted at 63 minutes), Elliot Anderson (8) has now started three in a row. He’s featured a few times here and we really like what he brings to the team. With Joelinton picking up another injury shortly after coming on, he’s likely got continuing value as a starter. You can expect to find him making his second appearance of the season in our Transactions section this week.

West Ham United 2 - 0 Sheffield United

Sitting solidly in 7th after this win, this was the bounce-back start to the season West Ham dreamed of, which raises the remarkable thought that they actually might be better having sold Declan Rice. That’s something of an overly-simplistic reading, given they were actually broadly fine on xGD/90 last season (11th in the League) alongside their memorable Conference League win. But the reshaped midfield they’ve put together with Edson Alvarez (2.5) and Tomas Soucek (17) is proving a capable platform for the rest of the team to stand on. James Ward-Prowse (23.5) was a divisive signing in real football terms back in August, with questions about what he offered outside of set-piece contribution. There was never much question about his Fantrax value though, given he was perpetually a top 30 player at Southampton. He’s currently running hotter than that, flirting with the top 10 alongside team-mate Jarrod Bowen (18.5). And West Ham fans can also point at the fact they’ve not even integrated Mo Kudus into their league starting lineup yet. Though the visit of Newcastle is one of the tougher games they could wish for as a follow-up, there’s just no reason to fade any of the star names for West Ham. They’re good and they’re consistent. We just maybe shouldn’t expect Vladimir Coufal (27.5) to take his run of consecutive games with an assist to four in that one.

Sheffield United are rooted to the bottom of the table, the negative goal-difference from the previous Gameweek’s tie holding them there like an anchor. We’ve very little positive to say, unfortunately. Gustavo Hamer (9) was relevant this week, as he has been in a number of others, by nature of his set piece role. And Wes Foderingham (9.25) tends to get enough save volume to be streamable most weeks. But, even seeing Fulham next up on the fixture sheet doesn’t give me much confidence here. The vast majority of this team are under 20% rostered and it should possibly be lower, with apologies to Blades fans.

Wolves 2 - 1 Manchester City

This was about as bad as it gets if you’re Manchester City. 23 shots, for a total of 0.87 xG. It was just bad attempt after bad attempt for City, with their forward line mostly stifled. It was about as far from the Rodri, Gundogan, De Bruyne midfield as you will ever see today. Both Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovacic are tidy possession control midfielders but their goal and assist threat is non-existent. Wolves were able to suffocate the service to the more threatening front-men with pure numbers. Full credit to Wolves for the defensive performance. We’re not totally sure how they turned their on-ball work into two goals, but if you can defend, you always give yourselves a chance to win games and they defended very well today.

Pedro Neto (4) certainly didn’t get his normal attacking volume in this game, but he made what little he did have count, getting behind City in the left-back area early. His attempted pull back to the penalty spot deflected off the unfortunate Ruben Dias (-1.25) and Wolves were ahead. It won’t have helped many managers this week, but it is another positive sign for his season-long propsects. Resolute defending was the order of the day for Wolves from that point on and, given the sheer volume of low-quality shots, you won’t be surprised to hear that Jose Sa (14) finished as the highest scoring Wolves player.

Lots of things didn’t really click for City in this one. Erling Haaland (5) was totally starved of service, managing just a single shot. Jeremy Doku (15.5) didn’t have his most effective day on the pitch, though for Fantrax he remains gold-dust, with his four Key Passes and six Take-Ons pacing the side. Julian Alvarez (17.5), was the rare player to contribute in real life and fantasy, as he so often has done this season, popping up with a wonderful free kick to equalise. But Wolves hit back with Hwang Hee-Chan (13.5) who missed the memo that Wolves strikers are only allowed to score off the bench from Matheus Cunha’s (13) assist. City huffed and puffed some more, but didn’t really ever look like knocking down Wolves doors. City have to navigate this Rodri-less midfield set up again next week, when they visit Arsenal. They’ll need it to look a lot better than this.

Tottenham Hotspur 2 - 1 Liverpool

Our policy of not talking about refereeing decisions has made write ups occasionally difficult. It makes this one almost impossible. We’ll stretch our own rule slightly, given the apology issued by PGMOL. Luis Diaz (2) had his goal wrongly disallowed and it had a huge impact on this game for both Fantrax and real-life. Diaz and Mo Salah (2.5) would both have had much bigger days had the correct decision been given. It’s pretty gutting if you started either and unfortunately there will be managers who lost Gameweeks by that ‘lapse of concentration’ in the VAR booth. Other than that, we’re hesitant to discuss loads more of this game specifically for Liverpool, because going down to 10 and then 9 men skews everything we saw from that point on. The only point worth noting is that Cody Gakpo (16.5) is reported to have left with a knee brace and his likelihood of playing in the short to medium term has to be considered at risk. Diogo Jota (-5.5) also now misses the Brighton game. Darwin Nunez was a surprise omission from the starting lineup but almost has to start in the next game against Brighton. That’s a Sunday game, so the extra confidence is useful.

For Spurs, there are a handful of things to note. Firstly, Richarlison (17.5) was returned to the lineup, playing wide left, and it looked a lot better than most of his previous starts up front. He finished the game with 1.14 xG+xA, which led the game. Heung-Min Son (14.5) retained his starting spot up front and had 0.99 xG+xA. When the roles were reversed for this duo earlier in the season, things were not quite clicking. This worked so much better. You’d think this is what they’ll be going with next week against Luton too. In that Luton game, it’s hard to imagine that there’ll be a Spurs player that isn’t startable, based on what we’ve seen from both sides this season. It’s a huge turnaround from past seasons at Tottenham. If you’re a Spurs fan, you’ve got to be on Cloud Nine with how the season has started. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see this as a full 11v11 contest but they won’t care. Another win in the bank.

Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Brentford

I’m almost embarrassed to admit that I was excited for this one in the build-up, given what we eventually got treated to. The first half in particular was impressively damp. With one shot on target between the teams (a chance from Ethan Pinnock (8.5) which didn’t really threaten the net), as well as a (correctly) disallowed goal from Forest following a set piece, there was little on show to entertain or to provide Fantrax points.

The interesting story before the game for Forest was that Morgan Gibbs-White (4) was starting the game on the bench. In his absence, we saw Callum Hudson-Odoi (3.5) pick up free-kick and set-piece duties. This is one to monitor. If the ex-Chelsea man picks up more of this through the season, it’s likely to lead to better days than he had today. There was also a second league start and first league goal for Nicolas Dominguez (16) in a performance that he’ll hope to build on. If you’re Forest, most of your positivity will come from the fact that you were the better team in the first half, with a fair amount of control of the ball. The negativity comes from turning that control into not a whole lot of actual chances (3 shots, 0.18 xG) and then losing Moussa Niakhate (-2.5) to a needless second yellow. They were also fortunate that the referee didn’t think anything of Matt Turner’s (8.25) challenge on Yoanne Wissa late in the game.

Brentford woke up in the second half, capitalising almost instantly on the red card, with Christian Norgaard (19) scoring from the resulting play. They pressed on and had the better of the second-half against ten men (as you’d expect) but couldn’t make it count. Pinnock, Bryan Mbeumo (11.5) and Mathias Jensen (10.5) all joined the goalscorer in having positive starter performances but we’re left feeling a little disappointed by Brentford this week. The trip to Manchester to face United is their next challenge and it should suit their usual play-style a little more than today’s game did. We wouldn’t be shying away from any Brentford assets for that matchup, even with today’s muted output, given United’s current form and it feels like a spot for a bounce-back.

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Another International break upcoming means opportunity to start planning moves and trades you would like to make in the downtime. Just as a note: we’re not going to be talking too much about injured players in this section, because in a lot of leagues they’ll be stashed, but do keep an eye on any of the names that might’ve been dropped early season (the likes of Luke Shaw, for example) as we move closer to their potential return dates.