The Overthinking Preview: GW18 (Christmas Eve) Edition

In which we try to pick the interesting elements from an entire slate of games in one post.

Hello.

And welcome to another Overthinking Football festive preview. Given it’s the season to be a little soppy, we hope you’ll indulge us a moment to thank everyone for their support so far this season. It’s a constant source of huge motivation (and some small amount of amazement) that so many of you choose to show your support by subscribing to what we do here. When we decided to launch this collaboration, we knew there was a chance that we’d end up writing into a void of nothing - the Fantrax equivalent of that tree falling in an empty forest. You’d reassured us within days that that wasn’t the case and we’ve enjoyed every minute of both getting the products built and launched in the Summer and getting into a rhythm in terms of regular content here.

We’ve still got loads of ideas that we want to bring to life, so we hope you’re planning to stick around with us through the rest of the season and beyond. And if you are, and you’ve got ideas about the types of content you want to see more or less of from us, please do get in touch and let us know (we’ve already got a features board for Ranker 3.0).

For those celebrating the holidays, we hope you have an incredible time with families. To those who aren’t, we hope you can feast yourself on a diet of daily Premier League and Fantrax action. We are aiming to have out Previews ahead of each round of fixtures this week (and boy do they come thick and fast this next 10 days).

Now our brief detour into sentimentality is complete, as ever, lets get down to the business of Fantrax…

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Crystal Palace - Brighton

Key Storylines: Where will the bragging rights go in one of the Premier League’s most unlikely Derby ties? Will Palace have both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise on the field? And will Brighton ever keep a Premier League Clean Sheet this season?

Streamer Potential: We’ve mostly seen Brighton as a streamer write-off this year, despite the value they offered last season. And the fact they’re a very leaky defence is a big part of the reason why. You can’t start any of their defenders confidently. And their attackers are basically all rostered. The model really doesn’t like Brighton players this Gameweek. And given we know that Brighton don’t keep Clean Sheets, this is probably a week you could justifiably turn to last week’s Goal and Assist hero Jean-Philippe Mateta. He’s historically not been all that good for Fantrax but if Palace are going to score, he’s as reasonable a bet as any to make.

Top 3 Projected Expected Points (expected starters): Eberechi Eze (13.65), Michael Olise (11.48), Kaoru Mitoma (9.75)

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Aston Villa - Sheffield United

Key Storylines: Through three games, Chris Wilder looks to have Sheffield United playing a fair bit better than his predecessor and has an average of a point per game since his return. Can he keep the magic rolling against an Aston Villa side missing defensive midfield lynchpin Boubacar Kamara? Or will Villa take their opportunity to, even temporarily, top the Premier League?

Streamer Potential: Wilder might’ve improved things for Sheffield United, but they’re still a big target for managers looking for streamers. Especially with them playing so early in the Gameweek. Alex Moreno returned to the side last game and looked good. Whether he will be risked for two games in a short period of time isn’t clear, but he’s a premium option if he’s still available. We also like Jacob Ramsey, who is also returning from injury, and comes with an 11.74 xFpts projection.

Top 3 Projected Expected Points (expected starters): Alex Moreno (14.48), Ollie Watkins (13.22), Moussa Diaby (12.4)

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West Ham United - Manchester United

Key Storylines: Can Manchester United do something about their expected goals against record (5th worst in the league)? And does it matter anyway, given they seem to have a habit of picking up points regardless? Or, as the 3rd best player in the entire game over the last month points-wise, will this be another dominant Mo Kudus performance against a vulnerable Manchester United defence?

Streamer Potential: West Ham, as we’ve discussed a few times before, are a points funnel who push all their Fantrax production through a bunch of names that are rostered in every single league already and can really only offer streamer value if they keep a Clean Sheet. If you want to back that, go ahead (it’s not like United’s attacking numbers are great), but we don’t love it. They’ve conceded 5 goals twice in the last 3 games in all competitions, after all. We’re also not sure you’re going to get a lot of value from a Man United streamer, either. They only have 5 players projected for more than 8 points and it’s likely all of those players are already rostered.

Top 3 Projected Expected Points (expected starters): Bruno Fernandes (13.33), James Ward-Prowse (12.33), Jarrod Bowen (11.75)

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Fulham - Burnley