Overthinking the Top 12: November International Break Edition

In which we deep dive the best performers so far after a third of the Fantrax season

Hello! And welcome to an Overthinking Football International Break deep-dive, in which we will be looking at the current Top-12 Fantrax players by xFpts and passing judgement. We’ll be taking them in turn, looking at the story of their season so far, whether we saw (or should have seen) it coming back in draft season and whether we think the performance is sustainable.

We’ve done this in previous years and there’s almost always some interesting movement between the first third and the end of the season. In the 2021/22 season for example, we saw the likes of Michail Antonio (4th), Conor Gallagher (5th) and Andros Townsend (9th) find their way into these lists after hot starts, so it’s always fun to take these point in time snapshots.

For each player, we’re going to present the following statistics:

Points per Start: What is the average number of points this player has scored this season when starting.

Expected Fantrax Points: When we adjust based on expected goals, assists and defensive metrics, what is their “expected” score.

Wins Above Replacement: Based on actual scores, how many additional wins would we expect managers to have for starting this player, compared to starting a replacement level alternate.

Draft Rank: Where did the player finish in the Community Consensus Rankings

As ever, we will keep the intro fairly light, so we can get into the content, but before we start, a couple points of note:

1. We will only consider players with 5 or more starts. This is both because we want players that have meaningfully contributed to their manager’s seasons and also because anything less than that and we would typically have sample size caution.

2. All xFpts data can be found in our usual spot. We’ve chosen to use xFpts rather than WAR, though would encourage you all to look at the WAR values too, as there are some interesting names in the WAR Top-12 that miss out here (hi Joachim Andersen).

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12: Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool

14 PPS (one red card game removed), 13.7 xFpts, 0.92 WAR, 63rd Draft Rank

The story so far? A renaissance, if a little under the radar. I know, this isn’t a name you probably thought you’d be seeing in this list. I didn’t either when I loaded up the stats tables. But, sure enough, he’s there. And it makes sense, really. Other than the red card game against Newcastle and the subsequent games he’s missed, he’s been double figures and up in over two thirds of his starts.

Was it predictable? To some degree, yes. Barring years where he (or every defensive name around him) has been injured, his level has tended to be a double figure Fantrax Point average. His low community draft rank is reflective of that uncertainty. But with Liverpool fielding an entirely new midfield and the relative weighting people put on defenders, we would never have expected to see him in the first round anyway.

Is it sustainable? It’s hard to argue against, in particular because he was doing all of this whilst Liverpool were keeping almost no Clean Sheets (it took until late October for the first Clean Sheet points of Van Dijk’s season). Add those back in and we’re looking at another vintage season from Liverpool’s star defender.

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11: Pedro Neto, Wolverhampton Wanderers

15.4 PPS, 13.84 xFpts, 0.92 WAR, 157th Draft Rank

The story so far? He’s been a one-man show at times for Wolves. At the time of his injury, he was responsible for two thirds of Wolves goals (either scoring or assisting). He does basically everything: open-play and set-piece wise, he’s the man at Molineux. Sadly injured during a game against Newcastle, but the outlook is relatively optimistic for a speedy-return.

Was it predictable? Pedro Neto as a Top-12 player is something we’ve seen before. But there’s been a lot of not-particularly Top-12 output from both Neto and the Wolves attack in the few years since. His age meant that there was always hope of a resurgence and he has had post-hype sleeper buzz in each of the last two seasons. This is right at the top-end of outcomes, sure. But, not only had we seen it before, we had a good explanation for the down-years (injury recovery). It’s a regular draft day mistake to take lots of players who have a best-case outcome of being replacement level ahead of players with a ceiling. Neto shows why you shoot for the stars.

Is it sustainable? The worry comes in two places. Firstly, hamstring injuries are not ideal for a player that plays in a twitchy manner and excels on the dribble. We’re putting faith in Wolves to manage their star man sensibly here. The other worry is that someone comes knocking in the January transfer window. It’s hard to imagine there aren’t teams who would view him as both a starter option and a key depth piece. We’ve seen that everything at Wolves is set up for him to star. If he moves, he might just become one part of an attack, suppressing his value. Overall though, we’re keeping positive here.

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10: James Maddison, Tottenham Hotspur

16.45 PPS, 14.95 xFpts, 1.52 WAR, 9th Draft Rank

The story so far? The self-declared centre of attention at a family roast has been the do-it-all guy for Spurs (spoiler, we’ll see more than a few of these guys in the Top-12). He’s the creative hub, the penalty taker and the man on all set pieces. He has outperformed his numbers in Fantrax points so far, but the numbers themselves are entirely healthy. Maddison, unfortunately is not for the time-being, having picked up an injury against Chelsea that’s estimated to rule him out until January.

Was it predictable? Predictable, yes. The consensus expectation? No. No one thought he was going to be bad, hence his high draft ADP. But the conversation around Maddison was about whether he would replicate his Leicester output with the move to Spurs or see it change. In the first eleven games, we got an answer, seeing the output hit new heights as the centre-piece of Ange’s Spurs revolution.

Is it sustainable? We will have to answer this in two parts, for obvious reasons. Firstly, yes everything at Spurs is geared around Maddison, so he will likely be fantastic whenever he is on the field. But secondly, and perhaps most important, he’s going to miss at least 9 more games. So although we have no issue projecting his xFpts staying at this level over the whole season, sadly he’s likely to finish well outside of the Fantrax point Top-12 by the time the final count is in.