Overthinking Football's Midseason Roundtable
Well, after an exhilarating month, it’s finally over. What are your World Cup takeaways?
Gordon: In the early group stage it seemed that underdogs want to sit deep and counter attack. Big teams really don’t want to give up counter-attacks. The end-result was giving me slight Covid-ball PTSD as the ball was moved slowly around in a horseshoe shape for 90 shot-barren minutes! So thank your higher power of choice that things really improved later in the groups and then the knockouts turned into a truly wild ride!
Chris: Nothing like a World Cup to remind you that all those benched rotation-players for premier league squads are still exceptional footballers. It’s a joy to watch guys like Hakim Ziyech and Christian Pulisic really strut their stuff on the world stage. It probably won’t change their own manager’s mind, but could it turn the head of a different club? Opportunity remains king, and I, for one, am hoping they get a renewed chance at club relevancy with a change of scenery.
Will: Mine is kind of the complement of Chris’s. Keep in mind the World Cup is a small sample size and international soccer is a different flavor of football than the EPL. Just because someone was killing it at the World Cup, does not mean they will do the same for your fantasy squad. It is not every day that the top-level talents of the world get to go up against the “can do a job” caliber players for second tier national teams (see Kylian Mbappe vs Nathaniel Atkinson for an example). So, if someone has a breakout World Cup and gets a big move to say Manchester United I’d advise against betting the farm on that player (cough cough Cody Gakpo).
Andrew: The World Cup is just great. While I love club football, this tournament brings an unrivaled level of emotion and excitement. Consequently, it’s even more frustrating to watch FIFA do seemingly everything within its power to dampen the event’s appeal, from inexplicable hosting decisions to the 2026 expansion of the tournament field (please do not make me suffer through pre-match penalties during the group stage). I have no doubt that this tournament will always captivate a global audience, and I similarly know that every four years I will find myself glued to the TV for a month, but I really hope that everyone’s favorite corrupt sports body doesn’t stumble upon additional ways to diminish the magic of the Cup.
Which player has impressed you the most so far this fantasy Premier League season?
G: Haaland is too obvious an answer (though it’s clearly right). So I’ll be a hipster and say Trossard. He’s elevated his game under two managers and it was frankly wild that Hazard started any games over him for Belgium at this point.
C: Haaland rightly gets all the plaudits but I have to give some well-deserved credit to Aleksander Mitrovic, especially given his previous premier league struggles the last time Fulham found themselves in the top flight. He’s averaging 16.11 xFpts, just 0.11 below Haaland and only 0.81 off the king, KDB, himself. His high performance has been coupled with remarkable consistency too – his 90% quality starts are the third highest amongst players with more than 10 starts.
W: Obviously Haaland is amazing. However, I want to give Martin Odegaard a shout out. Part of this is Arsenal just being way better than I expected them to be this year, but Odegaard has gone from a solid fantasy asset last year to a fantasy star. He was xFpts and WAR peers with the likes of Ethan Pinnock last year, but this season he is hanging out with Bruno Fernandes and Harry Kane. So far this year, Odegaard has nearly collected the same amount of WAR in his 13 starts as he did in 28 starts last year (21/22 WAR: 1.25 22/23 WAR: 1.19) and has an average WAR that is twice his average last year (avgWAR: 0.91), for context that is a little better than Joao Cancelo’s full season average WAR last year.
A: Going with a deeper cut: Pascal Struijk. Given his performance last season, where he averaged 4.12 xFpts and finished at 493rd in WAR, this man had no right to be rostered on any fantasy team. Yet here we are. After 13 starts, Struijk is averaging a remarkable 11.35 xFpts (7th best for defenders with 3+ starts), and sits at 43rd overall in WAR. I don’t really expect Pascal to keep up this fantasy form–after all, he plays for a squad that can give up 5 goals in any given match–but until his production takes a noticeable turn for the worse, you could do much worse than keeping Struijk in your starting lineup.
Who has disappointed you the most?
G: Take your pick of any of the highly-drafted injured players that adorned my bench for the first half of the season… But for just really average production on the pitch, it probably has to be one of the high-drafted Liverpool defenders. Trent or Van Dijk. Take your pick.
C: A number of high-profile players have been disappointing – Mount, TAA, Sterling – to name a few, but since I think all will rebound I’ll save this answer for some formerly highly-touted players who are barely even worth a roster spot anymore. Foremost on this list has to be Jadon Sancho (ADP 27). Some players are disappointing because they never get consistent opportunities to shine, but this hasn’t been Jadon’s problem. He’s started a healthy 10 games but hasn’t made anything of his features, averaging a paltry 7.06 xFpts per game. His performances have been drab enough that he’s lost his place in the side over the last 5 GWs and there isn’t an obvious path where he reclaims and then keeps it. A lot of people were hoping this would be his breakout season where he finally made good on his Dortmund promise in the Premier League, but sadly seems like we’ll be waiting a little bit longer for his obvious talent to emerge.
W: I think Mason Mount is my answer. He has been a fantastic asset the last few years (20/21 avgWAR: 0.0816 , 21/22 avgWAR: 0.078, 20/21 xFpts: 13.93, 21/22 xFpts:12.87 ), and this year he is putting up just-a-dude-on-your-squad numbers (22/23 avgWAR: 0.041 , 22/23 xFpts: 8.01). For most people Mount was likely a late first round/early second round reliable piece that they thought they could build their team around. This reasonable assumption will have cost them a lot given the likes of Bukayo Saka (ADP: 13.5 ) and James Maddison (ADP: 20.6 ) were likely viable alternatives when they selected Mason Mount. Personally, I am not overly optimistic that Mount will rebound given how things were going at Chelsea when the World Cup break came around. Even if Mount and Chelsea can turn things around, it would take one heck of a second half of the season to make up the WAR lost that Mount fantasy managers were expecting to have.
A: It’s gotta be Trent. Drafting the Liverpool defender #1 overall would have been a perfectly reasonable choice given his spot at the top of last year’s WAR rankings, but he currently finds himself as the 71st most valuable fantasy asset. I still have faith he’ll come good as a tier 1 defender in the second half, but many managers will be left frustrated by the slow start. If you’re looking for some lower-profile first half disappointments, Pedro Neto and Ait-Nouri take it for me. Wolves have struggled as a whole, but I had reasonably high hopes for these two coming into this season, and neither has lived up to the hype.
Which player will rebound and improve form after the break?
G: I could go back to the Liverpool defenders here. Or name any of the Chelsea lineup who are really struggling without Reece James and Ngolo Kante. But I’m going to go with Diogo Jota, who I think Liverpool are really missing right now, and who they really need to find top form alongside fitness.
C: We really need to talk about Liverpool here. Yes, they’ve been bad, and no, their underlying numbers aren’t about to swoop in and save them here either. Their xGD (xG - xGA) matches their position in the table perfectly, landing them at 6th overall in both categories at the World Cup break. So they’ve clearly been playing poorly. That being said, I’m still high on Trent Alexander-Arnold. Defensive issues aside (I think these are overblown), WBs make their money in Togga scoring by providing offensive contributions, and TAA has not been getting his due, racking up 2.2 xA with zero assists to show for it. The return of Liverpool’s (nearly) full offensive contingent (Jota, Darwin, a well-rested Salah) after the World Cup break will not only help finish these opportunities, but also lift the offense as a whole, leading to even more opportunities for TAA to score points. If Liverpool can fix their midfield woes this transfer window as well, the extra defensive cover for Trent should allow him to rekindle his past dominance. I would bet on it.
W: My money is on Son Heung-min. He has consistently outperformed his xG and xA by a wide margin every season since 2017 at Tottenham. I don’t know how, but he does it. Currently, he is underperforming his xG and xA by about 0.1 goal contributions per 90 on the season. If the last five years of xG data tell us anything, it is that this is very unusual for him. I have a feeling he will turn things around.
A: I may just be trying to wish this into existence, but I have to think that Emi Buendia becomes a more useful midfield asset moving forward. Emery’s Villa has already shown some noticeable improvement, and Emi appears to be the preferred orchestrator of Unai’s attack. I doubt we’ll see the Norwich City version of Buendia, but I do think, or at least hope, that the energetic Argentinian can become a solid MID-2 or 3 with more guaranteed playing time. Look for Ollie Watkins to benefit from Unai’s arrival, and Buendia’s potentially more influential role, as well.
Who is overperforming and set to regress over the remaining games?
G: Roberto Firmino would be the dull answer but I’ve been too Liverpool heavy already. If this was a “who should I sell high” question, someone like Willian maybe.
C: Bruno Guimaraes is a fabulous all-around midfielder and the lynchpin of this exciting Newcastle side. However, a consistent goalscorer, he is not. In 12 games this year, he’s already scored 3 goals along with assisting 2 more, despite only amassing 2.0 total npxG+xA. That, my friends, is what we call unsustainable scoring. This is borne out in his xFpts. After filtering players with fewer than 5 starts, he’s been the 45th best player in PPS (9.71), but only 111th best in xFpts (7.63). Expect future Bruno G to resemble the latter, rather than the former, player.
W: I believe Miguel Almiron will be cooling off after his Grealish diss fueled white hot start to the season. Almiron is WAY overperforming his xG with 8 goals and 4.6 xG. This level of xG overperformance would appear unsustainable even if it was from a perennial xG outperformer, like Harry Kane or Son Heung-Min. On top of this Almiron has never been one to overperform xG, even when he was setting the MLS ablaze at Atlanta United FC. So, I think the goals, and thus the fantasy points, will not continue to come in at the current rate. However, the silver lining for people who have Almiron on their team is that his xG per game is way up compared to previous seasons at Newcastle. So, he will probably still be a solid fantasy squad player for the rest of the season… unless Newcastle really go for it in the January transfer window and he loses his starting spot. I think that’s unlikely, but not impossible.
A: The Leicester stars, James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, have benefited from a good bit of fortune over the first half. Both players are significantly outpacing their xFpts, with Madders overperforming his expected by a shocking 3.35 points per match. While Maddison should still provide managers with good output if his attacking contributions come back to earth, Harvey’s 4.5 ghost points per match, buoyed by 6 goals on 3.5 xG, provide less hope. Luckily for both players, Leicester as a team has plenty of room to improve, which could result in increased overall production for the pair that offsets any anticipated regression. If Leicester continues to struggle, however, do not count on these Foxes to sustain their current output.
Which low ownership player (>50%) will breakout in the second half?
G: Mitoma is still technically under 50% and is probably in a great situation to overperform. Similarly Wesley Fofana is an option if the knee’s recovered. But Douglas Luiz is down at 27%, takes set pieces, has got rid of the managerial weight around his ankles and has produced before. Him. However I am aware that that is a boring answer, so if you want an out-there one, Ben Chilwell has struggled for fitness, Cucurella struggled for form. Lewis Hall, despite being a midfielder by trade, could get a shot at minutes at the coveted LWB position for Chelsea. He’s a streamer any week he does.
W: I am going with Emile Smith Rowe. Arsenal’s starting attackers have been super healthy so far this season, and with many of them playing in the World Cup, I think that luck is unlikely to continue. With Smith Rowe coming back from injury and his teammates being fatigued and possibly injured after the World Cup, I think Smith Rowe will be getting starts and minutes. We also know from previous seasons that he can put up solid numbers when he plays.
C: Crysencio Summerville, the man who supplanted Jack Harrison in the Leeds lineup, is only 44% rostered and gets my pick for breakout player. He’s only started 4 games all year, but has made the most of his opportunities in the lineup, scoring 3 goals in his past three games (on 1.1 xG). The situation is right for him to be a points-machine in a Leeds side that’s produced the 7th most xG/90 so far this year, especially in the role that made Jack Harrison a fantasy darling. Everyone came into the season banking that Luis Sinisterra would claim the massive number of fantasy points left behind by Raphinha’s departure, but perhaps our hopes should be pinned on Summerville instead.
A: Aaron Wan-Bissaka. While this answer is entirely dependent on the January transfer window, the rumor mill surrounding the United outcast has kicked into high gear. West Ham, Wolves, and Palace are apparently lining up to take on AWB, and United seem willing to let him walk this window. Arguably the best one-on-one defender in the league, AWB has a penchant for collecting defensive fantasy points, and facing fewer opposition low blocks should open up his attacking abilities as well. I wouldn’t necessarily expect him to “breakout” into a fantasy star again, but he should be a useful defensive asset owned in most leagues if he gets a transfer out of Manchester.
We are almost at the halfway point. Final predictions for the Premier League?
G: City win. Arsenal probably just about hold on to second, even with Jesus. Newcastle and Chelsea spend a bunch in January. And this means United and Liverpool fall slightly short. But I have almost no confidence in anything other than the first prediction. At the bottom, I can’t find the optimism for Wolves, other than that Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth seem awful and Southampton just sacked the manager that somehow kept them afloat with a side of academy players. Three of these four go down.
C: City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, in that order. I don’t think Arsenal have the consistency to win the title yet, but they have been easily the second best team. Liverpool is just too talented to keep playing as poorly as they have, and I expect them to bounce back in a big way. Unfortunately the deficit is too big to dream of much more than 4th, but I think they’ll find their way back into the Champions League places. On the other end, I think Bournemouth, Forest, and Southampton all drop, with another narrow escape at the buzzer by Everton.
W: City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Tottenham. Arsenal has done great so far, but I don’t think they have the depth to beat the City Machine. Fourth was a tough call, but I think Conte successfully brings in some new pieces in January and ekes out a better but still not quite right Liverpool… and then the Conte meltdown occurs. My bet is Bournemouth, Forest, and Southampton go down this season. I think Lopetegui ends up being a good hire, and Wolves get out of trouble. I also think Everton have another close call, but survive to circle the drain for another season.
A: City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool. While Arsenal has taken a big step forward, it is just so hard to best City across a full season. If Gabriel Jesus’s injury leads to substantial time off, I believe Arsenal will quickly relinquish their lead, and Pep’s squad has shown its ability to close out a campaign. Wishful thinking and loyal fandom has me picking United to eke out a (somewhat) resurgent Liverpool to close out the top 4. As for the relegation battle, it looks like Bournemouth, Forest, and Southampton take the clean sweep from this group. While I worry about Leeds’ ability to stay out of the bottom 3, I think a hopefully healthy Bamford will help them across the finish line.
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