A Fantrax mid-season review
FA Cup weekend left a Premier League sized gap in the weekend schedule, so naturally I was straight on the line to the usual crew to get them together to talk Fantrax once more. With it being 2021 now, I was in a reflective mood, so we had ourselves a mid-season review and put ourselves through a sort of informal performance review. I think the guys are probably pretty harsh on themselves with their bad takes, and rather modest with the good but you’ll have to read and let me know what you think. I hope you enjoy!
FantraxGJL: Hello! It feels like an age since we've last talked. And a lot has happened. In fact, I think by my count, since the last time we spoke we've seen a US election, multiple Covid vaccines get approved and the (seemingly inevitable) top-flight return of Big Sam. Certainly not a quiet end to 2020. How have you been?
Drafterthoughts: Yes it has not been the quietest couple of months, both in Draft Fantasy and in the rest of the world. It's been a bit of a relief to have a weekend free of Premier League action, although I've found myself once again addicted to American news channels...
OverthinkingFootball: Things have been chaotic, to say the least, and am more grateful than ever for the distraction of Draft Fantasy. Looking forward to catching up and chatting with you guys!
FantraxGJL: The festive period is definitely testing, even in a normal season. So this years' was bound to be even worse. How did you navigate the festive fixtures? Did you have any specific philosophies you were trying to use?
OverthinkingFootball: There are two guiding principles I use to try and make the most of these crazy weeks.
(1) I do everything in my power to ensure a full contingent of 11 players starting matches. This can be really tricky with just 16-man rosters and so tough decisions need to be made. The threshold for "droppable" increases for these weeks, especially if the matchup is close. If you can guarantee a win by dropping a mediocre, normal starter that has a blank gw, sometimes you have to just bite the bullet and do it. Ask yourself: "will this player be worth more than 1 win the rest of the season?". If the answer is no, take the W and don't look back! While that assessment is tough to manage, we'd like to think our WAR score does a pretty decent approximation of this.
(2) Plan ahead! If your opponent is only starting 5 players in a BGW, you only need to shoot for 6 or 7, rather than 11, players. Taking a look a few weeks in advance to start making these moves early can pay huge dividends.
Drafterthoughts: Yes looking at your matchup schedule is really important when the blank/double GWs pop up. In our last discussion we were all on the same page in terms of not deliberately keeping a roster spot free for flexibility purposes, despite this being a popular strategy within the Twitter community. However, the injury to my first pick Jiménez freed up my roster so I’ve had room to stream players for single GWs during the busy Winter period.
I’ve had limited success with this, though: O’Shea (5.75 vs Newcastle), Ngoyo (1.25 vs Chelsea), Basham (4 vs Crystal Palace) were all failed attempts to get some cheap points for aerials won. My best stream was Mina vs Burnley (11.75) but having dropped him before the Chelsea game he has since gone on to score 62.25 points at an average of 13.1!
Also I must give a shout out to Draft legend Tottiandor, who has been my 'proxy' for the games when I'm asleep; I'm incredibly grateful! How has it been for you @FantraxGJL?
FantraxGJL: I came out of it with 2 wins from 3 in my home league, but I put more of it down to luck than chance. One week I had almost my entire roster rotated.
Honestly, I mostly found the whole fixture schedule exhausting! I watch a lot of football but this was too much for even me. I also switched to writing game previews over this period because I couldn't keep up with the regular schedule, but writing anything with much confidence was tough - there was an excellent tweet from fbref showing just how big the difference in pressures was through December and it was notable how much lower the quality was from a lot of games.
Drafterthoughts: Yeah that pressures graph was very revealing.
FantraxGJL: Anyway, moving on from December now that's out the way... As someone who shamelessly goes after silver linings, it's now 2021. And I've been reliably informed by many memes that 2021 is going to be better than 2020. But with a new year comes a chance to reflect. We're halfway through the Fantrax season, so if you're happy to humour me, I'd love to take a bit of time to look back at the first half of the season and to look at the good, the bad and the ugly of our previous takes.
Before we get into the fun part (the bad and ugly and how we may have contributed to ruining various other people's Fantrax seasons), I thought I'd give an opportunity for each of us to call out our biggest win. What take from the preseason or early season are you happiest with?
Drafterthoughts: It's hard to pick a 'biggest win' because they often look so obvious in hindsight.
I drafted Grealish in both leagues and had him ranked higher than most (8th), but I certainly wasn’t expecting him to be 3rd for Shot Creating Actions per 90 across the whole of Europe’s Big 5 Leagues (only Neymar and Messi are better) so I feel like I got a bit lucky there.
I’ll go for Havertz instead, who I publicly warned about and had ranked (55th) much lower than the consensus (ADP 23).
FantraxGJL: I can admit to having been (and still being a little bit) in the pro-Havertz crowd! How about you OF?
OverthinkingFootball: We've been on the "attacking defenders are undervalued assets" train all year which has been panning out even with injuries to the likes of Lucas Digne and Reece James. They've been performing really well so far by xFpts overall (players with min 7 starts; Cancelo - 5th, Digne - 13th, James - 25th, Chilwell - 28th, Robertson - 30th), but most importantly, they provide value because they perform so much better than your average defender.
Never forget that you have to start someone on defense, so the gap between these guys and the rest of the crowd makes a huge difference on matchday.
FantraxGJL: I spent a lot of time reading previous articles to try find a big win. And to follow a theme from your answer OF, I’m going to go with “Defenders”.
Before the season, I wrote a series of “One from each round” articles, looking at what is available by ADP in each round. Anyone that followed that article could have taken Chilwell from Round 4, Reece James from Round 6, Cancelo from Round 7, Saiss 9, Lamptey 10, Cash 13 and Cresswell 14. Admittedly, they might also have spent their 8th rounder on Chris Basham, but I guess you can’t expect 16/16. I’m a proponent of waiting on defenders, so I’m classing that as comfortably my biggest win.
Ok. Victory laps over, lets get to the fun ones. Lets jump straight into the fire. What do you think you got the most wrong coming into the season? And, more importantly, what would it make you do differently for next time around?
OverthinkingFootball: Oh boy. Harry Kane and Gabriel Jesus for the same reason in opposite directions. Kane's xG had been trending downwards for years (0.77 npxG+xA/90 -> 0.56 -> 0.39)... until this season (0.67 npxG+xA/90)! For a Jose Mourinho side, no less. Gab Jesus on the other hand had been steadily increasing his xG production every year (0.74 -> 0.88 -> 0.95), was theoretically only getting better...until this season (0.46 npxG+xA/90)!
I think there are two different issues at play here -- for Harry Kane we didn't take into account the extra variance that comes with a manager installing a new system. Kane's talent was undeniable, but a combination of injuries and steadily worsening production made him plummet in both WAR and our internal ranks. We did not properly consider how large a difference a reconfiguring of his role and an injury-free season could have on his production, and we paid the price. (Also, we would be remiss if we didn't add that his and Son's finishing have been insane this year -- leading to presumably inflated and unsustainable goal and assist tallies. They are the first and third highest xFpt overperformers, respectively).
As for Jesus, perhaps we just blame Covid? Not sure anyone was expecting a collapse in production to this extent, but perhaps it's a sign to be wary of all Pep players, with his constant tinkering.
FantraxGJL: Drafted Jesus, faded Kane. I feel the pain.
Drafterthoughts: At least you didn't publicly tell everyone Kane was a 3rd round pick at best...
OverthinkingFootball: To be fair, I would have called Kane a 3rd round pick as well...
Drafterthoughts: Anyway I think Bamford deserves a mention here, given The Athletic’s analytics writer Tom Worville recently nominated him as most likely to win this season’s golden boot, citing his unmatched xG/90. I wasn’t alone in labelling him Pukki 2.0 and many professional pundits were skeptical about his chances in the Premier League, but at some point I should have realised his underlying numbers were excellent (he is 1st for Shots per 90 with 3.96) and perhaps could have traded him in on the cheap given his reputation.
FantraxGJL: Bamford is a great one!
I was torn on this one between two. At first, I wanted to lean Aubameyang. Ahead of the season, I wrote separate pieces about how you should look at age when assessing players and that you should be cautious around xG overperformance. And then I still ranked Auba high as a 31 year old with huge xG overperformance. Perhaps not that shockingly, he is performing slower this year. But it’s hard to fully separate that from Arsenal’s more general struggles.
So I decided to go closer to home, given I didn’t take Auba myself. I drafted Christian Pulisic in my Home League. He looks to be a great player. But he’s historically been injury prone. And he’s proven to be again in the first half of this season. Think the lesson is easy on this one: let someone else take the injury risk with such a high value pick. He might stay healthy second half of the year and contribute, but I’ve got 50% of my second round pick at best at this point. Interestingly, this is why I'm still a bit cautious with projecting forwards for Kane, despite the monster production.
Another topic I’d love to touch on: do you have any takes that have proven to be wrong so far from a results and output perspective, but that you’re still holding onto?
OverthinkingFootball: I'm double-dipping a bit here, but I'm still confident Gab Jesus will turn things around. He might not be the world-beater I expected him to be in the preseason, but his npxG+xA is unsustainably low, and came during City's early rough patch. It has to get better! This just isn't how players tend to develop.
Another take I'm still holding on to -- Reece James as the best defender this year.
He's definitely been a good defender, but he doesn't hold the title of best defender thus far. This is largely anecdotal, but whenever I watch him, he really pops. Every game it feels like there's at least one ball that's millimeters off of connecting for an easy goal. If he starts hitting those on top of his very respectable floor of points, he'll be back in the running for top defender.
FantraxGJL: I'd love both of those to be right, as someone who owns both in my main league! @Drafterthoughts?
Drafterthoughts: I'm going to stick with Chelsea and go for Ziyech. He's been injured, but even his PPG (9.19) looks very disappointing for someone I saw as a 2nd round draft pick. His PPG is misleading due to few sub appearances (his PPS is a healthier 11.9) but if he stays healthy and gets a run of games I think he could be challenging for highest points scorer ROS. He has just put in an excellent performance against Morecambe (1 assist, 5 key passes, 6 successful dribbles) but I promise that didn't influence my selection!
FantraxGJL: Another good pick! I was tempted by a Chelsea one too, with “Timo Werner is good”. Or one closer to my heart with “Ait Nouri is Wolves best option at wing back” or any other bunch of statements that are yet to really come through.
But instead, I’m going to double down on something from a previous discussion we’ve had and say “Anthony Martial is going to be fine and probably deliver value about where he was being drafted ROS”. He had a horrible start, so he won’t finish in the top 20 players overall when including the first half of the season. But I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he finished in that region from now to the end of the year.
Ok. One more topic I want to touch on before I let you get on with your morning / evening and its a big one. Do you have an eye on anyone as the potential “breakout star” of the second half of the season?
Drafterthoughts: Well I thought it was going to be Mitrovic given he’s 3rd for Shots per 90 but his recent behaviour has rather dented that hope! It's not a wildly exciting call, but I do expect better from Dwight McNeil. His shot production has plummeted (0.54 per 90 compared to 1.29 last season) but he's still sending in heaps of crosses and would perhaps have more than 1 assist if not for Chris Wood's below average finishing ability. So I think we could see a return to a steady 9 or 10 PPS.
OverthinkingFootball: Similarly, we're not looking at anybody coming out of nowhere, but assuming a streak of good health, Captain America himself, Christian Pulisic, has been underperforming his xFpts by 2.85 points, which would give his points per start a bump up to 12.2 from 9.31. TAA has also been underperforming expectations significantly, with an underperformance of 3.04 points. It remains to be seen to what extent he's been affected by his reported Covid case, but one would hope any lingering symptoms would only get better.
Less data-driven and more wishful thinking, but if the Arsenal uptick is for real, there could be a significant bounce in their two creative young studs, Saka (10.04 xFpts) and Smith-Rowe (12.28 xFpts in 3 starts).
FantraxGJL: You're really out to make me feel a lot better about my home league team with these picks! And McNeil is someone I had pretty high hopes for in preseason. His age and points profile looked perfect for at least a repeat season. It's remarkable really that he hasn't delivered.
From my perspective, prior to Big Sam coming in, I thought Conor Gallagher had the potential to continue to build on his first half of the season. Fair to say, I don't hold that view anymore!
So I'm going to go a bit out there with selecting Phil Foden, who has had a very subdued first half of the season. Sure, he's still got rotation to worry about, but with extra opportunity comes extra points and his play when he has been on the pitch has been good.
OverthinkingFootball: Foden is a great shout, especially as a buy-low punt.
FantraxGJL: He's not a player I have rostered anywhere, but I'd definitely be putting out the feelers on whether he's for sale!
I know it's getting late for you @Drafterthoughts so in the interest of not zombifying you for Monday morning, we should probably start to close it out. But before I let you both escape, do you have any final thoughts looking back? Are there any big lessons to be taken away from this season so far?
OverthinkingFootball: A pretty obvious point, but I think it's important to keep in mind just how much added variance there is this season due to the pandemic. Between players (or entire teams!) randomly missing due to Covid outbreaks, minimal rest, lingering symptoms of long covid, and general world-falling-apart anxieties that players and staff are by no means immune to, this season is more unpredictable than any other. Wacky outcomes are to be expected. So what do we do with this information?
(1) take wins where you can get them. Making tough decisions to guarantee a win in a short game week is more important than ever, since you really don't know whether or not you can rely on players or teams in the long run.
And (2), just enjoy the ride. Now more than ever I think we need distractions, and if your distraction, like many of us, is Draft Fantasy, don't get too caught up in the ups and downs.
Drafterthoughts: Very nicely summed up! The only thing I would add is try not to be too reactionary. After an opening score of 17.25 in GW1, Jamal Lewis was touted as 'must own' in some corners. His season average is 1.9. Don't let one game influence your decision making too much!
FantraxGJL: Unsurprisingly, I couldn't agree more with both of you. And thank you both for taking the time to talk again. Hopefully 2021 will be better and we can get to a more normal season again next time around. I look forward to many future debates about how much weight we put onto data from this season, when looking into the next one!
OverthinkingFootball: Thanks Gordon and DT!
That’s that. With the usual thanks to the FPL Discord, which facilitates these conversations and to all of you for reading. You can find all three of us involved in the conversation on Twitter and do engage and let us know your thoughts, or your takes (good or bad) that you want to purge yourself of going into 2021!