Welcome back to the Overthinking Football Gameweek Preview. We’ve got 5 Gameweeks remaining (doubles incoming) and there’s still lots to play for in real football and in Fantrax.
We’ve been hard at work trawling through the upcoming fixtures, consuming player news and looking at our Overthinking Football Projections Model to make sense of what we’re likely to see this weekend.
As ever, in looking at what’s coming up I have questions. This week I’m asking:
Can Liverpool find their form again when Palace come to town?
Is there optimism for Unai Emery on his return to the Emirates?
Are Nottingham Forest on track to stay in the division?
How do Newcastle slow Tottenham’s wingers without their first-choice full-backs?
Chelsea vs Everton: which side can break their curse first?
Can Liverpool banish their finishing gremlins to get back on track?
Liverpool’s midweek visit from Atalanta was interesting in a lot of ways. Firstly, there was the nostalgia of seeing players like Gianluca Scamacca (once a Fantrax great-hope), Mario Pasalic (a spirit of Chelsea stockpiles past) and Charles de Ketelaere (a transfer will-he or won’t-he) lining up at Anfield. Then there was Jurgen Klopp’s decision to play a heavily rotated lineup (we would guess that 4 of the 11 are in-line to start this weekend). And lastly there was the continuation of their recent struggles to convert attacking play and touches in the penalty box into actual goals. As crises go, this one ranks on the lower end. Liverpool sit joint-top in terms of points in the Premier League, after all. But certainly this week has impacted their chase of a dream treble significantly. They will go to Italy in the next leg needing to win by 4 Goals or via penalties to progress on the night. It’s not beyond this Liverpool side, but it’s also not a position you’d ever confidently bet on happening. This weekend, Liverpool will be thankful that they don’t have to travel for their league fixture either, with Crystal Palace coming to Anfield. We were fairly critical of Palace in the most recent Preview article. Since their managerial change, they’ve not been good. That said, they weren’t all that great before the managerial change either. So surely this is the perfect spot for Liverpool to right the ship, right?
Well we have some reasons for optimism. The first of which is player availability. Caomhin Kelleher has played well for the most part in relief of Alisson (though he’ll no doubt rue his tame attempt to save Atalanta’s first goal on Thursday) but the Brazilian is undoubtedly an upgrade. Liverpool also saw Diogo Jota return off the bench and he’s typically one of the better goal-scorers in the Liverpool squad. We doubt he’ll be in a position to start this weekend, but even 30 minutes off the bench can be decisive. And, though he didn’t see the field, Trent Alexander-Arnold was also judged healthy enough to make the bench for the Atalanta game. That’s three huge players who can lift Liverpool. The second reason for optimism is just how weird that United game was. United fans will not be complaining about a free three-points any time soon but, unlike the Europa League game, that was a true footballing in many ways. Darwin Nunez is back under a microscope having not scored in either game and it’s a reflection of his play-style that when these results occur, he’s the one who takes most of the heat. We’re not worried at all, though. Our thoughts on Nunez are pretty established at this point and they’re not changing unless he stops generating the sheer volume of chances that he gets on a game-to-game basis.
The only thing that we do find slightly worrying for Liverpool is that you have to go back 9 games in all competitions to find their last Clean Sheet. We wouldn’t say that it particularly worries us in this game, though. Crystal Palace are 18th in the Premier League when it comes to xG generation and even the impending return of Michael Olise feels unlikely to turn that around at this point. Palace might be able to make things difficult for Liverpool in opening the scoring but we’re not expecting any ‘Crystanbul’ flashbacks here. That said, most of us might not have thought Dwight Gayle was the man to derail the title bid in 2014, either.
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace - 2.00pm UK, 9.00am US kickoff, Sunday
What can Douglas Luiz-less Villa show us at the Emirates?
Unai Emery presumably has had this one circled in his calendar for a long time, whether he’d outwardly admit to it or not. His time at the Emirates was short and he’d not be human if he didn’t look at the patience shown to his successor and wonder ‘what if’ he’d remained in charge there. But he’s Aston Villa’s coach now, has lifted them to a level they’ve not seen in a very long time (since Martin O’Neill was in charge) and would be optimistic about their chances of giving his old employers a tough time. We also imagine he would’ve been fuming when, in the 97th minute of the game against Brentford last weekend, Douglas Luiz picked up a Yellow Card. In doing so, Douglas Luiz ruled himself out of the next two matches, including the trip to Arsenal. When combined with a grueling (but fruitful) 90 minutes in Europa Conference League action, Villa find themselves heading to Arsenal on something of the back-foot. But is it all doom and gloom? And should we worry about our Villa players for Fantrax?
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