Welcome back to the Overthinking Football Gameweek Preview. It’s Week 28. It’s a post-European game fixture list, meaning a lot of Sunday action (was this really a week we needed a MNF game?) and it’s a Double Gameweek. We’re here to guide you through it.
We’ve been hard at work trawling through the upcoming fixtures, consuming player news and looking at our Overthinking Football Projections Model to make sense of what we’re likely to see this weekend.
As ever, in looking at what’s coming up I have questions. This week I’m asking:
Manchester United vs Everton: how much does this game matter?
Where is Liverpool’s injury situation in the run up to Manchester City?
With Chilwell and Colwill down, should you dabble with Cucurella?
How big a week should we anticipate from Bournemouth?
Spurs vs Villa: potential game of the weekend?
Is Manchester United vs Everton one of the highest or the lowest stakes game of the week?
The odds for Manchester United to make the Top 5 (and likely Champions League qualification) are long. They sit 6 points behind Tottenham (11 behind Aston Villa) and Tottenham have a game-in-hand. If that gap becomes 9 points with just 10 games to go, it’ll likely be insurmountable. Everton sit ahead of the relegation spots by 5 points, having played a game more than Luton, who currently sit in 18th. To a certain degree, both teams will feel like every-game is an opportunity to pick up points that they cannot afford to miss. And yet, taking a different look at it, Everton are a remarkable 7th in the League on xGD/90 (having run about as cold as it’s possible to run on finishing) and United sit in 12th (having run about as efficiently as it’s possible to run in terms of victory margins in many cases). So really it’s a stats versus real numbers kind of deal whether you think this game has stakes or if it’s actually just a battle between a team that’s probably safely in European competition, but not the Champions League, and a team that’s likely to be in mid-table in ten games time.
Regardless of what expected numbers say, both teams will be feeling the pressure of their recent form. For United, the loss to Manchester City will be painful, if expected. The loss to Fulham (and the worrying ease with which Fulham played through them) was more concerning. This is likely to be a very similar looking lineup for United in the midfield, though with enforced changes at the back. Harry Maguire is likely to miss out and Jonny Evans is a doubt, which will most-likely force Victor Lindelof back into the centre. We’d guess that probably means Sofyan Amrabat coming in at full-back. It’s not a back-four to inspire confidence. The projections model likes United more than I do, but even then it’s not recommending picking defenders. It feels like United’s best hope for a Clean Sheet in this one is that Everton continue to be wasteful in front of goal.
For Everton, they’ll likely recall Dominic Calvert-Lewin for this one, having given Beto the start last time out. Beto actually played fairly well, even if his day was blighted by a penalty save, but Calvert-Lewin is first choice when healthy. Whether you as a Fantrax manager should trust Calvert-Lewin is a different matter entirely and it mostly comes down to how much you trust his expected numbers. On an xG basis, he’s still doing good things, which explains his 11.16 xFpts in his 18 starts. His average chance quality is 0.18, meaning he has around a 1 in 5 chance of each of his shots going in. He takes around 3 shots a game. You can probably do the sums yourself. He should be scoring a goal every second game. Instead, he’s scored just 3 from 9.2 xG. It’s a wild underperformance that puts him clear and away the most unlucky finisher in the league this season. Personally, we’d still roll with him in this one. He’s projected at 10.21 xFpts and it probably is goal or bust in this game. But with United’s recent inability to shield their back-four, coupled with the likely back-four they’re going to have to play, chances should be there. Maybe this is the week variance bounces kindly for DCL.
Manchester United vs Everton - 12.30pm UK, 7.30am US kickoff, Saturday
How strong will Liverpool’s lineup look for a likely title race defining clash with Manchester City?
We’ve enjoyed the narrative around Liverpool’s youngsters the last fortnight as much as the next person. They’ve coped well with being thrust into the spotlight and have kept Liverpool’s results moving along positively, even if it’s looked a little raw at times. We do not, however, want to see how they cope with Manchester City. Their time may come, but all the tactical instruction in the World isn’t going to prepare them for the likely onslaught when City come to town. So, with that in mind, what might we expect to see this weekend from Liverpool?
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