A closer look at Burnley FC (with Brett)
A guest post by friend-of-the-stack Brett examining Vincent Kompany’s Burnley
One of the hardest things about Fantrax every season is evaluating the promoted sides. It can be even harder for teams that were in the league previously. We’ll have all manner of mental shortcuts available to tell us what sort of side Norwich are likely to be next time they pop back up. Or West Brom.
But the problem is, we’re not always right. Except in the case of Norwich. Oh and West Brom.
Sometimes though, a drop to the Championship can be all a team needs to go through a complete transformation of their playing identity. When that happens, it’s even harder to know what to make of the team that returns to us. Our old shortcuts are no good, and we need to turn to those who’ve kept up with their clubs in the second division. In this case, we’re looking at Burnley and we’ve got a guest collaborator to talk about the new look Clarets: friend of the Substack, Brett. Brett has offered to take us through what we need to know about Burnley going into this season and we were delighted to add his insights to the mix.
Over to you, Brett:
For the unsuspecting, or rather uninformed, Fantrax Fantasy Premier League player it would appear like the incredibly uninspiring “Park The Bus” & “Long Ball” Burnley FC are back to grind out 1-0 results against the most unlikely opponents (á la 2021 Liverpool when they gate-crashed Jurgen Klopp’s unbeaten home run). Outside of statistical dark horse Dwight McNeil (now at Everton) or the over-the-odds blip that was Maxwel Cornet (West Ham), the only relatively sensible fantasy pickups from that time would’ve been a Burnley CB like Ben Mee (Brentford) or James Tarkowski (Everton). My personal favorite of that era being the ever-present-in-the-net, shot stopper extraordinaire, the most-right-and-holy Nicholas Pope (Newcastle United).
To be fair, all of these players, bar Cornet remain good pickups now, especially Dwight McNeil. But gone are those days. Gone are the days of 4-4-2 and the Ginger Mourinho, Sean Dyche.
Instead, Dyche has taken his signature style on to Everton and the new ambitious owners of Burnley Football Club (Alan Pace, Dave Checketts, and ALK Capital) brought Vincent Kompany (Manchester City & Belgian Red Devil legend) in to steer the ship post-relegation from the Premier League. And, though it wasn’t necessarily an obvious appointment, steer it he has.
Kompany and his staff, which includes Welsh legend Craig Bellamy and former Tranmere Rovers boss Mike Jackson, have overseen one of the most inspiring football transformations in all of England and, perhaps, world football. He has taken Burnley from a high pressing 4-4-2 to a Pep Guardiola-esque 3-2-5 or 2-3-5 (the likes of which we’ve become accustomed to seeing at the Emirates these days) which almost always begins in a 4-3-3 with bombing inverted wingbacks.
Don’t believe me, believe the stats. That’s what you all come here to read right? In his very first league game in charge in England against Huddersfield Town, Burnley completed the most passes in a single match in the Club’s history (506) while facing a joint record lowest shots on target in a single match (2). They accomplished this all whilst controlling over 70% of possession in that match. And this wasn’t an outlier, with these trends continuing for the entire campaign, as Burnley went on to become centurions in the Championship and recorded 87 league goals with a goal differential of +52. That GD of +52 is actually higher than the total goals scored EVER under Sean Dyche in a single season.
If you are looking for a more complete deep dive into the tactics, I recommend reading the following two articles: Medium–Burnley Tactical Analysis & "Mega Thread" on Kompany's tactics.
But moving from the tactics towards the Fantrax: Kompany has said repeatedly that his desire is to score from every possible moment, and thus every tactical setup he puts into place is with this in mind. Every goal kick, free kick, throw in, corner etc. is all about trying to generate a scoring opportunity. Burnley didn’t have a single talismanic striker in their squad last year. The goals didn’t come all from one place. Instead they were spread across 19 different players. In other words: expect the fantasy points to come from all over at Burnley this season.
So who should we keep an eye on for Fantrax?
With another 9 arrivals this Summer to compliment the 16 last Summer, it will be difficult to discern which players will have the opportunity to really stand out. With all that said, there are several Burnley Fantasy Players to keep a watchful eye on:
Scott Twine
Super Scotty Twine, in my opinion, one might call him Burnley’s very own James Ward-Prowse in terms of his set-piece contributions. He’s a name you probably weren’t expecting to see on this list but had you seen his numbers from League One two season’s ago you’d understand why I’m so jazzed about the player. Twine is a dark-horse late draft pick that is worth a gamble. In Twine’s last full healthy season, he accumulated 33 goal contributions (20G 13A).
Now, will that translate to the Premier League and why didn’t he do much of anything last season, if he’s so good? Great question. He was unfortunate to pick up a rare injury from the beginning of the season. Once back to full fitness, his numbers began to impress once again whilst fighting for a place in a side that was arguably walking the Championship. Within the small sample size of 600 minutes, his underlying stats of 0.48 non-penalty goals per 90 and his 0.45 npxG/90 line up almost perfectly, whilst he takes 4.19 shots per 90. In addition to the stats, Twine’s link-up play this preseason has been exceptional and he started in several of those tune-up matches against elite teams and has shone.
If he’s on the field, he will be taking every single free kick that is within striking distance. While there are those that think he may be loaned out, Kompany has repeatedly said that he’s an important cog in the Burnley team. He’s looked sharper and sharper in preseason. Expect him to be in and around it when the real games begin.
Josh Brownhill
Brownhill is one of the very few remaining players from the Dyche era that is not only still around but is playing a significant role in Kompany’s team and system. Stepping up in responsibility in the squad suited him and his goal contributions were very good (7 goals and 8 assists) and backed by solid underlying numbers. He was an option as an engine in the middle of the park for Burnley, defensively capable and often played as a CAM too. He’s not the guy you remember from last time out. He’s a player that has been given more responsibility and creative freedom under Vincent Kompany and thrived. Not to mention, he’s almost a nailed on starter as he’s the Captain.
Lyle Foster
Lyle came in the January transfer window as the most expensive South African Football signing in the country’s history despite only being 21 years old. He was clearly bought with the Premier League in mind and had only limited playing time in the Championship. But Lyle has looked very promising in preseason action. I expect Lyle to lead the line at Burnley. If he brings his shooting boots, he will be an incredible asset. With 11 goal contributions (8G,3A) in the Jupiler Pro League in Belgium for KVC Westerlo in the first half of last season (totalling a goal contribution every 71 minutes in just 17 starts) he already has a resumé of producing. We’ve also seen a number of players (particularly at Brighton) using the Belgian league as a proving ground and going on to success in the Premier League (Mitoma being the standout name) which gives a little more confidence in the translation.
Anass Zaroury
Talk about a player whose career has skyrocketed over the last 24 months. From relatively unknown to being named in the squad and playing in the World Cup for Morocco and moving from the Belgian first division (Editors note: Burnley really love Belgium) to the English Championship (and now the Premier League). He’s young with loads of flair (loves a step over) and he’s really finding his shooting boots in Kompany’s system. Anass produced 13 goal contributions (7G, 6A) from an xG of 4 and xAG of 6 in the league last season from primarily LW. There’s some over-performance in there and his average xG per shot is lower than average but for a young guy there’s a fair amount to like. He tapered off somewhat after the World Cup due to fatigue but I expect to see a lot of Anass this season as he just penned a fresh 5 year deal at the club. As for fatigue, I expect with the reduced schedule and another full season of senior football in the books, he will flourish.
Jordan Beyer
If there is a player that will rarely rotate out of the team, expect it to be Jordan Beyer. Affectionately nicknamed as “Beckenbeyer” the German youth international was at Turf Moor on loan last season with an option to buy from Borussia Mönchengladbach that could only be activated if Burnley went up. Spoiler alert: they did. And Beyer avoided having to hire International movers again (presumably). Beyer is a very modern defender. Known for his stride up the field, Beyer will bolster plenty of progressive carries and passes this season for a defender. He will likely chip in with a few goals too, as he has an aerial threat and gets in and amongst it on set pieces. With 14 clean sheets, 2A, and 1G in 30 appearances for the Clarets he’s a good quick pick up as a streaming option defender, depending on the opposition.
Manuel Benson
Statistically Burnley’s best fantasy asset from the outset. Bellamy & Kompany had to actually give him a ‘welcome to the Championship’ treatment last season. You can read about that here & here. Benson was primarily a super-sub last season but he is a technical winger with incredible pace. Burnley would often bring Benson on against tired legs where he’d run defenses ragged. When he was given a rare start, he was almost a sure bet to score. Benson averaged 7.13 progressive carries, almost 6 touches in the oppositions penalty box, over 3.5 shots and 0.66 goals per 90. Based on those four facts alone, you can probably picture exactly the type of player you’re getting in Benson.
Known as Burnley’s little magician, he has a diminutive stature at 5’3’’ and 139 lbs. In addition he has proven to be quite prone to injury. He has missed every preseason match thus far due to a pre-season training injury. It’s not believed to be too major. I suspect, given that the Premier League is a far more technical league (albeit with a physicality he will need to adapt to) with considerably fewer matches to play, Benson, when healthy is worth serious consideration. (Editors Note: Any guesses what League he played in before coming to Burnley?)
Zeki Amdouni
And lastly, we get to new recruit Zeki Amdouni (Editors Note: Not from Belgium. I repeat, not from Belgium). Though we haven’t seen enough to accurately judge him yet in a Claret and Blue shirt, he is Burnley’s record signing. For FC Basel last season he produced at a rate of 0.62 G+A+PK per 90. In fact he totalled 16 goal contributions in around 2000 minutes of play (12G 4A). I expect him to take on a Nathan Tella-esque role this season, which was a very valuable role last season. One to keep an eye on and potentially worth a streamer punt if starting.
And who should we be fading?
Of course there are also a lot of names that we almost definitely want to avoid. Some of them come with name value that might tempt managers in deep leagues.
Arijanet Muric or James Trafford
One way to approach the Goalkeeper position is to chase saves. And promoted teams tend to concede a lot of shots. There’s a few reasons to steer clear here, though. Firstly, it appears that Kompany has not yet decided which one of his two available keepers will actually have the starting shirt this season. Secondly, Burnley’s style is to play out from the back and both Trafford and Muric will follow this mold if they do get the gig. That could lead to a gaffe or two that could hurt their points totals (this is a young team who are going to have to step up the level against very experienced and talented pressing teams) but expect the Burnley GK’s to be decent value against teams they control the ball against.
Jay Rodriguez
Whilst he’s an experienced pro who we recognise from Fantrax seasons past, he will not be leading the line this season. He is the backup. He wasn’t a must start in his last few spells. He’s not now.
Wout Weghorst
This one probably holds some temptation. He was at Manchester United last year, after all. And he was scoring in World Cups just a few months before that. But steer clear. He has not featured much at all since coming back from loan at Manchester United and it does not seem like there’s much future for him at Burnley. Stay away.
Final takeaways
So what is my overall advice for drafting Burnley players? Don’t!
It pains me to say this but don’t draft them immediately. None of their players are worth a gamble right away and this is mostly reflected in ADPs. They play Man City at home to open up the season and then, due to the construction work at Kennilworth road, their second match against Luton Town is postponed. That’s at the very least, one blank, and an incredibly difficult match against the treble winners to open the year.
Monitor, keep in mind the above, and if you see something you like in the 7 names I talked about, don’t be afraid to go for it. This Burnley team is out to surprise.
Cheers and happy playing!
Thank you so much to Brett (@fadetofoote) for contributing this for us - in reading through and adding content to this as editor, I learned about a fair few names that I was unaware of and it helped add context to some that I was.
For Paid Subscribers, look out for Ranker Report coming out very soon. And for everyone else, we’re looking forward to getting into the Season and the regular season content schedule. If you don’t already subscribe, hit the button below. See you all there!