GW2: What did we see?
In the early weeks, small details can be signs of significant things to come for Fantrax season long value. It’s also difficult to fully trust any data in the early days of the season. As a result, I’ll be writing a few short articles that just look to capture anything interesting from games I’ve watched, or interesting player usage that I’ve noticed. Some of them may just be small sample size quirks, some will be signs of something more significant.
1. Arsenal do look a different beast, but hints of vulnerability remain
By the time draft season came to it’s natural conclusion, Gabriel Jesus had reached an ADP of 10.33. That’s an all-time high for the ex-Manchester City man. And this weekend was a glimpse at what the upside of the pick looks like. He was very effective on his way to a 45 point haul, with two goals and two assists to his name. Even choosing to write off one of the assists as very fortuitous, there was enough there to show the scary ceiling of Jesus as a Fantrax player when he is the main man. He also seems to be having a floor raising impact on some of the players around him, with Martinelli (24 points) in particular really seeming to be kicking on in support. He did also miss a few big chances, but that is just the Gabriel Jesus experience, and Arsenal fans should be more than willing to accept the misses, in exchange for the level of production he produces, despite them.
But that’s not to say that everything is rosy yet at the Emirates. In both games, they’ve mixed front-foot attacking play with periods where they’ve given hope to the opposition. Zinchenko (-0.75) has started well in possession, but it is notable that teams have targeted that side of the pitch in attack, suggesting he’s seen as one that can be got at in attack. This doesn’t outweigh the good things Zinchenko brings to the side, but I do wonder what we see when Kieran Tierney is fully back to fitness, and whether there’s more of a rotation at the left back spot than we might’ve assumed after seeing the hot start in attack at Crystal Palace. This is especially interesting with Zinchenko also able to deputise in midfield.
Either way though, Arsenal have a run of games that they could only dream of with Bournemouth, Fulham and Villa as their next three fixtures, followed by the unknown of a trip to Old Trafford, then hosting Everton. At the end of that fixture run, Arsenal really should be up at the top, or thereabouts, if they’re contenders for Top 4.
TLDR version: it’s hard to imagine a player you’d rather have for the next 5 weeks than Gabriel Jesus.
2. The Erling Haaland experience is unlike anything we’ve seen at Pep’s City before
In February of 2022, Romelu Lukaku set a new Premier League record. As Chelsea laboured to a late 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace, he left the pitch having touched the ball 7 times. Isolated, ineffective and sulky, much was written about this record. Most of it scathing.
Fast forward to this weekend, and one Norwegian prodigy managed just one extra touch against Manchester City’s visitors from the South Coast. A striker, playing for one of the most possession led teams in the League, barely touching the ball. On the raw facts, you’d be forgiven for thinking history was set to repeat.
Except… Unlike Chelsea’s sulking Belgian, everything Erling Haaland (9.5) does is threatening. With those 8 touches, he assisted a goal for Gundogan (20.5) and there were countless other opportunities where he looked likely to score, not least a position he took up parallel in the box to Phil Foden (25) on a sharp City move, where Haaland could very easily have taken his goal and touch tally up by one a piece.
This is Haaland in a nutshell. He will have games where he frustrates Fantrax owners, if he doesn’t score or assist, there’s not a lot else there. But the reason even possession-mad Pep is all-in on the Erling train is that everything else is so good.
If over the next few years Pep adds even a little bit more to Haaland’s in possession game, he’s going to finish a season as the 1 overall player in Fantrax at some point. This year I suspect the lack of rounded contribution will limit his likelihood of doing that. But he’ll still get you value from most first round spot picks. It’s fun to watch as a neutral, it’s less-so for anyone hoping to see City drop off from their heights any time soon.
3. Wolves are in a relegation scrap as it stands
This column isn’t intended to be a weekly pile-on towards Wolves. However they are a team I’ve watched live twice in two weeks, purely to try to get a feel for what is going on. And I’ve not really got one yet. They’ve now taken one point from games against Leeds and Fulham, and should frankly feel lucky to have got that point. Late in the season, these are the results that could feel like big six-pointers, and although early season is far more variable, it’s not really clear how Wolves can fix the leak.
Rayan Ait-Nouri (13.5) and Jonny (14.75) both seem uncomfortable defending as traditional full-backs, and there have been mistakes from the left-back two games in a row now. That Jose Sa (22) managed to save the penalty is somewhat immaterial - they can’t keep defending clumsily like that in the box. Something is still very off. The balance doesn’t feel right and I can’t work out if the problem is in the central areas (which was my first thought last week) or a lack of defensive responsibility from the players on the pitch who are looking to attack.
Either way though, they’re going into games against Spurs and Newcastle next, and I don’t think I can recommend starting any Wolves player, other than perhaps Pedro Neto (4), based on what they’ve shown so far. They really need something to click, though, as at the moment it looks like they’ve taken last year’s goal-shyness and added additional defensive fragility to it.
4. Reece James is the best player at Chelsea football club, and that’s a conundrum
Yes, that title is clickbait-y. But in this case, I think it’s hard to argue with it. Sure, N’golo Kante (5) and Raheem Sterling (8.5) are brilliant. Yes, Thiago Silva (1) and Kalidou Koulibaly (15) are incredible too. But in Reece James (13.5) Chelsea have a true Swiss-Army Knife of a player. But when we think about players who can line up in multiple positions, there can be a tendency to value the versatility without talking about the talent. In this case, Reece James seemingly can play as one of the best players on the pitch at RWB, RB, CB and CDM. And strangely, that can be a problem for Chelsea.
DraftSociety writer and all-round legend of the draft game Tottiandor has long been on the case of reminding us that (outside of injury) the biggest risk to Reece’s value in Fantrax is that versatility. He and I have discussed back and forth a few times over this Summer around this point. The short version is that Totti (rightly) is worried about positioning hitting his value. And my usual response is that Chelsea don’t want to lose his value at RWB (where he has the biggest impact on the team), so they’ve got a vested interest in having him at RWB as much as they can.
I believe both Totti and I are right in the logic behind our statements. Chelsea are still working in the transfer market to bring in a RCB that they trust in the big games to do the sort of hybrid man marking role that Reece performed effectively on Sunday, but we can’t ignore the fact that if Leicester do hold firm on Wesley Fofana (-0.5) this Summer, Thomas Tuchel does not seem to trust his other RCB options. Couple this with Ruben Loftus-Cheek (8) reminding us of his RWB performance against Real Madrid and we do have a situation where if the transfer market doesn’t work out for Chelsea, Reece will occasionally have rough games for his drafters.
But what should not be lost in this is that at RWB Reece is absolutely a round 1 level producer. And Chelsea seem determined to throw a blank cheque book at Leicester. I’m still confident on Reece being a RWB the majority of the time this season, and would happily use the threat of his CB usage to try to buy him in most leagues.
5. Other quick hit thoughts
You’d be forgiven for not really noticing Phillipe Coutinho (-2.5) in the weekend’s early kick-off. And his absence without leave wasn’t doing Aston Villa any favours. Buendia (18.5) changed the game when he came on, and although Steven Gerrard didn’t love being asked the question post-match, it seems like his team would be better off with Buendia starting the next game. He was a mid-round gamble in many leagues, but he offered a nice reminder of the upside of that bet at the weekend.
One player you’d struggle to have missed in that same game was the substitute debut of Amadou Onana (7). Though he lost the ball attempting a half-turn, leading to Villa’s second goal, the attempt was fully in-character for an all-action midfield display from the young prospect. He looks like he’s got the potential to be a real difference maker, for a team that are short in that department. It’s not reasonable to expect every week production from someone so young, but Everton pretty much need him to do it. Get him on the watch-lists.
Marc Cucurella (6.5) was (and still is) a tough projection for Chelsea. There is still the long-term risk that the game plan could be for him to play LCB. But at the time of signing, some of the commentary on the fee was that he didn’t have particularly special underlying attacking metrics. One and a half games in and there’s reason to question whether that was product of environment, as he’s looked effective in both directions at LWB and even stepped in to taking set pieces. Worth a monitor.
Nick Pope (18.25).
Added by 32% of draft managers since last week, but still only at 46% ownership, the early season free agent gem is looking like Moises Caicedo (10) who is averaging double figure ghost points at the moment. Swoop whilst you can, as the window is fast closing.
That’s it. Let me know what you found interesting (and apologies if I didn’t watch enough of your team this weekend to have offered any thoughts - I’m somewhat limited by what is available to watch!).