2024/25 Quick-Hits - #1
Some of what's on our minds going into the draft...
Ok. Yes. We literally just said we’re not going to be able to post as much. That’s still true. But we’re not stopping playing and we’re not all that good at keeping quiet. So with no further introduction, here are some loose thoughts going into this draft:
Crystal Palace have lost Michael Olise and there are rumours circulating about Eberechi Eze. If they both go, just fade everyone at Palace. The risk that they’re just not good is too big. Yes, I like Adam Wharton. Yes Daniel Munoz seems to be on an upwards trajectory. And yes Jean-Philippe Mateta is just a decent striker. But I’m not buying any of them without the two main guys. If Eze does stay, I’m all in on him as the centrepiece of everything.
Manchester United are having an interesting transfer window. Things were bad last season. Like way worse than the results imply. They needed to improve in defence, midfield and up front. And… They’ve signed Lenny Yoro who is incredibly well thought of (oh and he’s now on crutches for 3 months because United apparently aren’t allowed nice things). They’re linked with PSG outcast Manuel Ugarte. And they’ve gone for Joshua Zirkzee as an additional attacking option. It’s fine. But Zirkzee isn’t a typical striker. Rasmus Hojlund still needs to take a leap in shot volume or we need to see a Marcus Rashford resurgence (again). There’s also just a chance Manchester United could play better and see worse results, given how much variance shone on them last year. Outside of Bruno Fernandes and maybe Alejandro Garnacho I don’t really like the ADPs of any United players right now so I don’t expect to see many of them on my rosters this year.
Looking at Chelsea and shrugging is probably the best current reaction to everything going on. Pre-season results don’t really matter, but the fit between the set of players available to Enzo Maresca and the tactics he seems interested in implementing doesn’t feel natural. Cole Palmer remains an easy grab if he’s available at most picks. Outside of that, you’re going to be weighing an awful lot of pros / cons. There’s probably value to be had but tonnes of questions. Do you think Reece James finally puts his injuries behind him after surgery? Do you think Christopher Nkunku is going to adapt well to the Premier League? Are you backing Nicolas Jackson to build on his impressive debut season? The variance in their ADPs must be huge. Osimhen rumours don’t help much with certainty either.
Brighton are very much ‘what if we built the whole thing out of wingers?’ right now. I don’t know what to make of it. We were very concerned into last year that Brighton had sold £200m+ worth of midfield and replaced it with James Milner and Mahmoud Dahoud. Now long-time stalwart Pascal Gross is out the door too. It’s not total panic. New manager maybe means new style. And we do like Carlos Baleba. But the potential outcomes here are wildly ranging. Player wise someone is picking up a bunch of set piece work but… It’s hard to imagine Brighton are moving back towards Europa League level finishes with the moves they’re making, even if Yankuba Minteh was a fun dribbly chap last season.
Ipswich signed Arijanet Muric and he instantly becomes Fantrax relevant again. We don’t talk much about keepers. But Muric’s end to last season was the stuff of Fantrax legend. And he’s moved somewhere where he’s likely to still face a high volume of shots. There’s definitely more to say about Ipswich, who have been truly excellent the last 2.5 seasons, and Kieran McKenna who has parlayed that performance into a rumoured ‘4th highest managerial wage in the league’ level of compensation. But for now we’ll just say: the odds don’t favour Ipswich surviving in the division but when a team puts up two 90+ point seasons in a row, we pay attention.
I don’t really expect much to be all that different for City or Arsenal this year. A bit more Kevin De Bruyne availability has never harmed City’s Fantrax prospects. And adding Ricardo Calafiori maybe strengthens Arsenal’s defensive side at left back. But broadly it looks like these sides are running back the thing that mostly worked for them all last year. The most interesting player valuation wise across both sides is probably Kai Havertz. If he’s going to be Fantrax relevant, he has to be playing as a 9. We wrote last Summer we were really doubtful that trying to make him an 8 was the way to get value from such a big investment. And it certainly played out that way last year. The risk is that they may go back to the midfield experiment again if Gabriel Jesus is healthy. Havertz is priced as a second round player. He might just play 9 all year and return that kind of value. But go in with your eyes open: you’re buying the peak and there’s downside risk.
Newcastle’s full back positions were a constant tease last year. Regular readers know that we’re strong believers in the Fantrax potential of both Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento but don’t overpay on either, given Eddie Howe hasn’t shown much intention to start them when everyone else is healthy. Livramento is going into Year Two post significant leg injury though - typically you’d expect him to be back close to 100% athletically into this year, which is admittedly tantalising based on what he did for Southampton.
Douglas Luiz leaving is a bit gutting, given he’s been a favourite around these parts for a while. But Villa know how to keep us watching, signing Amadou Onana to fill the gap. They’re very different players (we don’t imagine Onana taking set pieces, for example) but, even at £50m, Onana feels like a coup. We’re intrigued.
That’s all we’ve got for now. There’ll inevitably be more. Let us know what you’ve got your eye on!